Conspiracy Mindset
Flavio Azevedo
28 May, 2018
1 Conspiracy Mindset
1.1 Items
Conspiracy Mindset
“Some political and social events are debated (for example 09/11 attacks, the death of Lady Diana, the assassination of John F. Kennedy). It is suggested that the ‘official version’ of these events could be an attempt to hide the truth to the public. This ‘official version’ could mask the fact that these events have been planned and secretly prepared by a covert alliance of powerful individuals or organizations (for example secret services or government). What do you think?”
- I think that the official version of the events given by the authorities very often hides the truth.
Conspiracy about 2016 Election
- I think the 2016 US Presidential elections will be rigged.
Conspiracy about 2016 Election’s Media Coverage
- Media coverage of the 2016 US Presidential elections has been controlled by vested interests behind one side of the debate.
All items were asked in 9-point scale raning from 1 (Definitely False) to 9 (Definitely True)
1.2 Descriptives
1.2.1 Means, SD, Range, & SE
| vars | n | mean | sd | min | max | range | se | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mindset | 1 | 1500 | 6.21 | 2.19 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 0.06 |
| 2016 Election | 2 | 1500 | 4.99 | 2.67 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 0.07 |
| Media Coverage | 3 | 1500 | 5.74 | 2.02 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 0.05 |
| All Items | 4 | 1500 | 5.65 | 1.93 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 0.05 |
1.2.2 Proportions
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mindset | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.09 | 0.03 | 0.14 | 0.11 | 0.30 | 0.07 | 0.19 |
| 2016 Election | 0.18 | 0.06 | 0.11 | 0.04 | 0.16 | 0.10 | 0.18 | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| Media Coverage | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.07 | 0.03 | 0.33 | 0.10 | 0.21 | 0.07 | 0.12 |
1.2.3 Distributions
1.2.4 Correlations
1.3 Demographics
1.3.2 Gender
Figure X. Conspiracy Mindset as grouped by Gender
| Gender | N | Mean | SD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Male | 740 | -0.05 | 1.04 |
| Female | 760 | 0.05 | 0.96 |
1.3.3 Age
Figure X. Conspiracy Mindset as grouped by Age
| Age | N | Mean | SD |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55-64 years | 234 | -0.20 | 1.04 |
| 45-54 years | 292 | -0.02 | 1.03 |
| 65+ | 254 | -0.02 | 1.00 |
| 25-34 years | 264 | 0.02 | 0.94 |
| 35-44 years | 263 | 0.02 | 1.02 |
| 18-24 years | 193 | 0.24 | 0.90 |
1.3.4 Education
Figure X. Conspiracy Mindset as grouped by Education
| Education | N | Mean | SD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Graduate | 193 | -0.38 | 1.04 |
| Bachelor | 310 | -0.27 | 1.01 |
| Some college | 471 | 0.11 | 1.01 |
| Less than High-school | 51 | 0.19 | 0.85 |
| High-school | 475 | 0.20 | 0.90 |
1.3.5 Income Levels
Figure X. Conspiracy Mindset as grouped by Income Levels
| Income Levels | N | Mean | SD |
|---|---|---|---|
| $150,000 + | 95 | -0.34 | 1.10 |
| $100,000-$149,999 | 160 | -0.22 | 1.15 |
| $75,000-$99,999 | 192 | -0.16 | 0.91 |
| $35,000-$49,999 | 227 | -0.01 | 0.99 |
| $50,000-$74,999 | 292 | 0.02 | 0.98 |
| Less than $15,000 | 178 | 0.13 | 0.96 |
| $25,000-$34,999 | 176 | 0.15 | 0.99 |
| $15,000-$24,999 | 180 | 0.26 | 0.89 |
1.3.6 Ethnicity
Figure X. Conspiracy Mindset as grouped by Ethnicity
| Ethnicity | N | Mean | SD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Latino | 88 | -0.02 | 0.84 |
| Caucasian/European origin | 1237 | -0.02 | 1.02 |
| Asian/Pacific Islander | 29 | 0.04 | 0.97 |
| Black/African America | 115 | 0.11 | 0.89 |
| Other | 18 | 0.24 | 0.77 |
| Native American | 13 | 0.62 | 1.11 |
1.3.7 Occupation
Figure X. Conspiracy Mindset as grouped by Occupation
| Occupation | N | Mean | SD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Retired | 268 | -0.07 | 1.00 |
| Employed | 768 | -0.06 | 1.02 |
| Unemployed | 146 | 0.05 | 0.99 |
| Student | 85 | 0.06 | 0.90 |
| Parent | 104 | 0.19 | 0.95 |
| Disabled | 98 | 0.23 | 1.01 |
| Full-time caregiver | 31 | 0.28 | 0.83 |
1.3.8 Area
Figure X. Conspiracy Mindset as grouped by Area
| Area | N | Mean | SD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Urban | 955 | -0.06 | 1.02 |
| Rural | 545 | 0.10 | 0.96 |
1.3.9 Religious Affiliation
Figure X. Conspiracy Mindset as grouped by Religious Affiliation
| Religious Affiliation | N | Mean | SD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jewish | 52 | -0.56 | 1.08 |
| Atheist/Agnostic | 230 | -0.26 | 1.11 |
| Christian | 1014 | 0.06 | 0.96 |
| No religion | 195 | 0.12 | 0.95 |
| Muslim | 9 | 0.16 | 1.06 |
1.4 Political Behavior
1.4.1 Political Orientation
Figure X. Conspiracy Mindset & Political Orientation
Figure X. Conspiracy Mindset & Political Orientation
| Political Orientation | Social Political Orientation | Economic Political Orientation | Composite Political Orientation | |||||||||
| B | CI | B | CI | B | CI | B | CI | |||||
| (Intercept) | 3.27 *** | 2.90 – 3.64 | 2.47 *** | 2.06 – 2.89 | 3.88 *** | 3.48 – 4.29 | 3.21 *** | 2.84 – 3.57 | ||||
| Conspiracy Mindset | 0.36 *** | 0.30 – 0.42 | 0.43 *** | 0.37 – 0.50 | 0.28 *** | 0.21 – 0.35 | 0.36 *** | 0.30 – 0.42 | ||||
| Observations | 1500 | 1500 | 1500 | 1500 | ||||||||
| R2 / adj. R2 | .080 / .079 | .092 / .091 | .043 / .042 | .081 / .081 | ||||||||
| Notes | * p<.05 ** p<.01 *** p<.001 | |||||||||||
| Political Orientation | Social Political Orientation | Economic Political Orientation | Composite Political Orientation | |||||||||
| B | CI | B | CI | B | CI | B | CI | |||||
| (Intercept) | 0.52 | -0.02 – 1.06 | -0.16 | -0.75 – 0.42 | 0.58 | -0.04 – 1.20 | 0.31 | -0.21 – 0.84 | ||||
| Conspiracy Mindset | 0.31 *** | 0.25 – 0.37 | 0.34 *** | 0.28 – 0.40 | 0.28 *** | 0.21 – 0.34 | 0.31 *** | 0.25 – 0.36 | ||||
| Age | 0.26 *** | 0.19 – 0.33 | 0.27 *** | 0.19 – 0.34 | 0.27 *** | 0.19 – 0.35 | 0.26 *** | 0.20 – 0.33 | ||||
| Income | 0.11 *** | 0.05 – 0.17 | 0.02 | -0.04 – 0.09 | 0.16 *** | 0.09 – 0.22 | 0.10 *** | 0.04 – 0.15 | ||||
| Religiosity | 0.34 *** | 0.30 – 0.38 | 0.46 *** | 0.42 – 0.50 | 0.27 *** | 0.23 – 0.32 | 0.36 *** | 0.32 – 0.40 | ||||
| Education | -0.05 | -0.16 – 0.06 | -0.08 | -0.20 – 0.04 | 0.10 | -0.03 – 0.23 | -0.01 | -0.12 – 0.10 | ||||
| Observations | 1500 | 1500 | 1500 | 1500 | ||||||||
| R2 / adj. R2 | .298 / .296 | .353 / .351 | .204 / .202 | .320 / .318 | ||||||||
| Notes | * p<.05 ** p<.01 *** p<.001 | |||||||||||
1.4.2 Religiosity
Figure X. Conspiracy Mindset & Religiosity
1.4.3 Religiosity & Political Orientation
Figure X. Conspiracy Mindset & Religiosity & Political Orientation
1.4.4 Candidate Preferences
Figure X. Conspiracy Mindset & Candidate Preferences
| Candidate Preference | N | Mean | SD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hillary Clinton | 371 | -0.48 | 0.91 |
| Jeb Bush | 83 | -0.38 | 0.83 |
| Gary Johnson | 68 | -0.08 | 1.06 |
| Bernie Sanders | 362 | -0.05 | 1.05 |
| Ted Cruz | 122 | 0.07 | 0.94 |
| Donald Trump | 444 | 0.46 | 0.84 |
| Rand Paul | 44 | 0.46 | 0.95 |
| Candidate Preferences | N | Mean | SD | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hillary Clinton | 371 | 4.72 | 1.76 | 1-9 |
| Jeb Bush | 83 | 4.92 | 1.60 | 1-9 |
| Gary Johnson | 68 | 5.50 | 2.05 | 1-9 |
| Bernie Sanders | 362 | 5.56 | 2.03 | 1-9 |
| Ted Cruz | 122 | 5.78 | 1.80 | 1-9 |
| Donald Trump | 444 | 6.53 | 1.61 | 1-9 |
| Rand Paul | 44 | 6.53 | 1.83 | 1-9 |
Figure X. Conspiracy Mindset & Candidate Preferences
1.4.5 Party Preferences
Figure X. Conspiracy Mindset & Party Preferences
| Party Preference | N | Mean | SD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic Party | 560 | -0.36 | 1.03 |
| Don’t know | 90 | 0.08 | 0.87 |
| Green Party | 40 | 0.13 | 1.04 |
| Libertarian Party | 100 | 0.17 | 0.97 |
| None | 120 | 0.18 | 0.93 |
| Republican Party | 508 | 0.22 | 0.90 |
| Constitution Party | 14 | 0.47 | 0.98 |
| Tea Party | 68 | 0.52 | 0.88 |
| Party Preferences | N | Mean | SD | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic Party | 560 | 4.95 | 1.98 | 1-9 |
| Don’t know | 90 | 5.80 | 1.67 | 1-9 |
| Green Party | 40 | 5.90 | 2.01 | 1-9 |
| Libertarian Party | 100 | 5.97 | 1.86 | 1-9 |
| None | 120 | 6.00 | 1.80 | 1-9 |
| Republican Party | 508 | 6.07 | 1.73 | 1-9 |
| Constitution Party | 14 | 6.55 | 1.88 | 1-9 |
| Tea Party | 68 | 6.65 | 1.70 | 1-9 |
1.4.6 Voting
| 2016 [Trump vs. Clinton] | 2016 [Trump vs. Clinton] + Supporters | 2012 [Romney vs. Obama] | 2008 [McCain vs. Obama] | |||||||||
| Odds Ratio | CI | Odds Ratio | CI | Odds Ratio | CI | Odds Ratio | CI | |||||
| (Intercept) | 26.34 *** | 16.35 – 43.43 | 25.08 *** | 15.76 – 40.82 | 4.78 *** | 3.32 – 6.94 | 4.98 *** | 3.44 – 7.27 | ||||
| Conspiracy Mindset | 0.56 *** | 0.52 – 0.61 | 0.57 *** | 0.52 – 0.61 | 0.78 *** | 0.73 – 0.82 | 0.77 *** | 0.73 – 0.82 | ||||
| Observations | 1103 | 1148 | 1236 | 1206 | ||||||||
| Notes | * p<.05 ** p<.01 *** p<.001 | |||||||||||
1.4.7 Party Identity
Figure X. Conspiracy Mindset & Party Identity
Figure X. Conspiracy Mindset, Party Identity and Voting
Tables meant for checking the number of observations in each category of the above graph.
| Donald Trump | Hilary Clinton | |
|---|---|---|
| Strong Democrat | 4 | 323 |
| Democrat | 27 | 129 |
| Leaning Democrat | 10 | 65 |
| Independent | 17 | 16 |
| Leaning Republican | 58 | 7 |
| Republican | 166 | 24 |
| Strong Republican | 282 | 7 |
1.4.8 Party Identity [2 samples]
1.4.8.1 both representative (N = 1500) and convinience (2119) samples.
Figure X. Conspiracy Mindset, Party Identity and Voting
Tables meant for checking the number of observations in each category of the above graph.
| Donald Trump | Hilary Clinton | |
|---|---|---|
| Strong Democrat | 6 | 649 |
| Democrat | 58 | 307 |
| Leaning Democrat | 18 | 196 |
| Independent | 70 | 46 |
| Leaning Republican | 181 | 15 |
| Republican | 440 | 57 |
| Strong Republican | 748 | 12 |
1.4.9 Voting & Party Identity
Figure X. Conspiracy Mindset & Party Identity & Voting Preferences
| 2016 [Clinton vs. Trump] | 2016 [Trump vs. Clinton] + Supporters | |||||
| Odds Ratio | CI | Odds Ratio | CI | |||
| (Intercept) | 982.374 *** | 349.098 – 3060.083 | 668.183 *** | 258.380 – 1882.789 | ||
| Party Identity | 0.004 *** | 0.002 – 0.006 | 0.005 *** | 0.003 – 0.008 | ||
| Conspiracy Mindset | 0.487 *** | 0.415 – 0.564 | 0.502 *** | 0.433 – 0.576 | ||
| Observations | 1103 | 1148 | ||||
| Notes | * p<.05 ** p<.01 *** p<.001 | |||||
1.4.10 Likeability
1.4.11 Trump’s Likebility
Figure X. Conspiracy Mindset & Trump’s Likebility
1.4.12 Clinton’s Likebility
Figure X. Conspiracy Mindset & Clinton’s Likebility
1.4.13 Johnson’s Likebility
Figure X. Conspiracy Mindset & Johnson’s Likebility
1.5 Politico-Psychological correlates of Conspiracy Mindset
1.5.1 Ideology and Partisanship & Conspiracy Mindset
Figure X. Correlates of Conspiracy Mindset
1.5.2 Nationalism, Nativism, Patriotism, Populism, and Conspiracy & Conspiracy Mindset
Figure X. Correlates of Conspiracy Mindset
1.5.3 Political Psychology & Conspiracy Mindset
Figure X. Correlates of Conspiracy Mindset
1.5.4 Values & Conspiracy Mindset
Figure X. Correlates of Conspiracy Mindset
1.5.5 Positive and Negative correlates of Conspiracy Mindset
Figure X. Correlates of Conspiracy Mindset
Figure X. Correlates of Conspiracy Mindset
1.3.1 Social Class
Figure X. Conspiracy Mindset as grouped by SES