[Replication of] A Politico-Psychological Analysis of Gun Control Attitudes
Flavio Azevedo
10 August, 2019
1 Gun Control
1.1 Table of Contents
- 1.2. Study Characteristics
- 1.2.1 Items
- 1.2.1 Samples
- 1.3. Descriptives
- 1.3.1 Means, SD, Range, & SE
- 1.3.2 Proportions
- 1.3.3 Distributions
- 1.3.4 Correlations
- 1.4 Demographics
- 1.4.1 Social Class
- 1.4.2 Gender
- 1.4.3 Age
- 1.4.4 Education
- 1.4.5 Income Levels
- 1.4.6 Ethnicity
- 1.4.7 Occupation
- 1.4.8 Area
- 1.4.9 Religious Affiliation
- 1.5 Political Behavior
- 1.5.1 Political Orientation
- 1.5.2 Religiosity
- 1.5.3 Religiosity & Political Orientation
- 1.5.4 Candidate Preferences
- 1.5.5 Party Preferences
- 1.5.6 Voting
- 1.5.7 Party Identity
- 1.5.8 Voting & Party Identity
- 1.5.9 Likeability
- 1.5.10 Trump’s Likebility
- 1.5.11 Clinton’s Likebility
- 1.5.12 Johnson’s Likebility
- 1.6 Politico-Psychological correlates of Gun Control
- 1.6.1 Ideology and Partisanship & Gun Control
- 1.6.2 Nationalism, Nativism, Patriotism, Populism, and Conspiracies
- 1.6.3 Political Psychology & Gun Control
- 1.6.4 Values & Gun Control
- 1.6.5 Positive and Negative correlates of Gun Control
1.2 Study Characteristics
1.2.1 Attitudes towards Gun Control
- Repeal all gun control laws and affirm the right to keep and bear arms (National Platform of the Libertarian Party, 2000)
- Gun ownership (Everett, 2013)
- Gun control laws are not nearly strict enough (Inbar, Pizzaro, and Bloom, 2008)
All items were asked in 9-point scale raning from 1 (Strongly Disagree) to 9 (Strongly Agree).
1.2.2 Samples
Exploratory (Nationally Representative of the American population; N=1500).
To conduct a exploratory and a confirmatory large surveys during the general election, we hired a professional survey firm (SSI, a US-based market research company that recruits participants from a panel of 7,139,027 American citizens; more information can be found at www.surveysampling.com (now https://www.dynata.com/) to recruit a nationally representative sample of 1,500 Americans (50.7% women) who completed study materials during the general election from August 16-September 9, 2016. (Information about sampling and exclusion criteria is included in the Supplement). The age distribution was as follows: 18-24 (12.9%), 25-34 (17.6%), 35-44 (17.5%), 45-54 (19.5%), 55-65 (15.6%) and older than 65 (16.9%). The ethnic breakdown was: White/European American (82.5%), Black/African American (7.7%), Latino (5.9%) and “Other” (4.0%). Concerning religion, 67.6% identified as Christian, 17.1% as religiously affiliated but not Christian, and 15.3% as Atheist/Agnostic. With respect to education 35.1% indicated “high school only or lower,” 31.4 % indicated “some college,” and 33.6% indicated having received a “Bachelor” or “Graduate” degree. 2424 participants were directed to the survey,1885 of which finished the survey (attrition rate 22 %). We followed recommendations to minimize the problem of careless responding in online studies. Specifically, we employed 10 random attention questions and time controls to check for data quality. There were 385 participants who failed more than one attention check or finished the survey in under ~22 minutes and were therefore excluded from the sample. For the 1500 participants who successfully finished the survey, completion time was 67 minutes on average (MD: 51min).
Confirmatory (Convenience Replication Sample; N=2119).
Also through SSI we also recruited 2,119 American adults (21.5% women), who completed study materials from August 20-September 13, 2016. (Information about sampling and exclusion criteria is included in the Supplement). Age was distributed as follows: 18-24 (9.1%), 25-34 (13.8%), 35-44 (11.4%), 45-54 (2.7%), 55-65(3.6%), 65 and older (59.3%). The ethnic breakdown was: White/European American (85.9%), Black/African American (5.1%), Latino (4.1%), and “Other” (5.0%). In terms of religion, 70.7% identified as Christian, 15.7% as religiously affiliated but not Christian, and 13.7% as Atheist/Agnostic. With respect to educational status, 16.2% chose “high school or lower,” 40.4% reported “some college” and 43.4% had attained a “Bachelor” or “Graduate” degree. The median income category was $50,000-$74,999. 3425 participants were directed to the survey, 2,262 of which finished the survey (attrition rate 22 %). We followed recommendations to minimize the problem of careless responding in online studies (Meade & Craig, 2012). Specifically, we employed 10 random attention questions and time controls to check for data quality. There were 543 participants who failed more than one attention check or finished the survey in under ~22 minutes and were therefore excluded from the sample. For the 2,119 participants who successfully finished the survey, completion time was 92 minutes on average (MD: 57min).
1.3 Descriptives
1.3.1 Means, SD, Range, & SE
| vars | n | mean | sd | min | max | range | se | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Repeal.GC | 1 | 2119 | 5.10 | 2.96 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 0.06 |
| Gun.ownership | 2 | 2119 | 4.04 | 2.87 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 0.06 |
| GC.Not.strict | 3 | 2119 | 5.07 | 3.12 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 0.07 |
| Mean | 4 | 2119 | 4.74 | 2.63 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 0.06 |
1.3.2 Proportions
1.3.3 Distributions
1.3.4 Correlations
1.4 Demographics
1.4.2 Gender
Figure X. Gun Control as grouped by Gender
| Gender | N | Mean | SD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Male | 1664 | -0.03 | 1.01 |
| Female | 455 | 0.10 | 0.97 |
1.4.3 Age
Figure X. Gun Control as grouped by Age
| Age | N | Mean | SD |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55-64 years | 77 | -0.06 | 1.06 |
| 18-24 years | 192 | -0.02 | 0.91 |
| 65+ | 1257 | -0.02 | 1.04 |
| 25-34 years | 293 | -0.01 | 0.95 |
| 35-44 years | 242 | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| 45-54 years | 58 | 0.15 | 1.06 |
1.4.4 Education
Figure X. Gun Control as grouped by Education
| Education | N | Mean | SD |
|---|---|---|---|
| High-school | 321 | -0.12 | 0.98 |
| Some college | 856 | -0.09 | 0.96 |
| Bachelor | 506 | -0.01 | 1.01 |
| Less than High-school | 22 | 0.04 | 0.68 |
| Graduate | 414 | 0.28 | 1.06 |
1.4.5 Income Levels
Figure X. Gun Control as grouped by Income Levels
| Income Levels | N | Mean | SD |
|---|---|---|---|
| $35,000-$49,999 | 305 | -0.12 | 0.98 |
| $25,000-$34,999 | 235 | -0.11 | 1.02 |
| $50,000-$74,999 | 450 | -0.06 | 0.98 |
| Less than $15,000 | 215 | 0.03 | 0.89 |
| $75,000-$99,999 | 316 | 0.04 | 1.03 |
| $100,000-$149,999 | 252 | 0.05 | 1.00 |
| $15,000-$24,999 | 171 | 0.08 | 1.00 |
| $150,000 + | 175 | 0.25 | 1.09 |
1.4.6 Ethnicity
Figure X. Gun Control as grouped by Ethnicity
| Ethnicity | N | Mean | SD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caucasian/European origin | 1820 | -0.04 | 1.01 |
| Native American | 20 | 0.03 | 0.98 |
| Other | 39 | 0.06 | 1.00 |
| Latino | 87 | 0.23 | 0.82 |
| Black/African America | 107 | 0.36 | 0.87 |
| Asian/Pacific Islander | 46 | 0.40 | 0.76 |
1.4.7 Occupation
Figure X. Gun Control as grouped by Occupation
| Occupation | N | Mean | SD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-time caregiver | 19 | -0.11 | 0.98 |
| Parent | 69 | -0.11 | 0.99 |
| Retired | 1024 | -0.04 | 1.03 |
| Unemployed | 115 | 0.01 | 1.00 |
| Employed | 676 | 0.04 | 0.98 |
| Disabled | 74 | 0.08 | 0.97 |
| Student | 142 | 0.09 | 0.88 |
1.4.8 Area
Figure X. Gun Control as grouped by Area
| Area | N | Mean | SD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rural | 753 | -0.24 | 0.98 |
| Urban | 1366 | 0.13 | 0.98 |
1.4.9 Religious Affiliation
Figure X. Gun Control as grouped by Religious Affiliation
| Religious Affiliation | N | Mean | SD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Christian | 1497 | -0.18 | 0.96 |
| No religion | 203 | 0.18 | 0.90 |
| Muslim | 11 | 0.49 | 0.85 |
| Atheist/Agnostic | 290 | 0.50 | 0.99 |
| Jewish | 118 | 0.76 | 0.87 |
1.4.10 Summary
1.5 Political Behavior
1.5.1 Political Orientation
Figure X. Gun Control & Political Orientation
Figure X. Gun Control & Political Orientation
| Political Orientation | Social Political Orientation | Economic Political Orientation | Composite Political Orientation | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predictors | Estimates | CI | p | Estimates | CI | p | Estimates | CI | p | Estimates | CI | p |
| (Intercept) | 8.14 | 7.97 – 8.32 | <0.001 | 8.02 | 7.81 – 8.22 | <0.001 | 8.41 | 8.22 – 8.60 | <0.001 | 8.19 | 8.02 – 8.36 | <0.001 |
| Gun Control | -0.53 | -0.57 – -0.50 | <0.001 | -0.58 | -0.62 – -0.54 | <0.001 | -0.54 | -0.58 – -0.50 | <0.001 | -0.55 | -0.58 – -0.52 | <0.001 |
| Observations | 2119 | 2119 | 2119 | 2119 | ||||||||
| R2 / R2 adjusted | 0.329 / 0.329 | 0.300 / 0.300 | 0.298 / 0.297 | 0.356 / 0.355 | ||||||||
| Political Orientation | Social Political Orientation | Economic Political Orientation | Composite Political Orientation | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predictors | Estimates | CI | p | Estimates | CI | p | Estimates | CI | p | Estimates | CI | p |
| (Intercept) | 5.07 | 4.70 – 5.43 | <0.001 | 4.75 | 4.34 – 5.17 | <0.001 | 5.10 | 4.70 – 5.50 | <0.001 | 4.97 | 4.63 – 5.32 | <0.001 |
| Gun Control | -0.45 | -0.49 – -0.42 | <0.001 | -0.45 | -0.48 – -0.41 | <0.001 | -0.48 | -0.52 – -0.45 | <0.001 | -0.46 | -0.49 – -0.43 | <0.001 |
| Age | 0.19 | 0.15 – 0.24 | <0.001 | 0.18 | 0.13 – 0.24 | <0.001 | 0.19 | 0.14 – 0.25 | <0.001 | 0.19 | 0.14 – 0.23 | <0.001 |
| Income | 0.10 | 0.06 – 0.15 | <0.001 | 0.04 | -0.01 – 0.10 | 0.081 | 0.18 | 0.13 – 0.23 | <0.001 | 0.11 | 0.07 – 0.15 | <0.001 |
| Religiosity | 0.24 | 0.21 – 0.27 | <0.001 | 0.38 | 0.35 – 0.41 | <0.001 | 0.20 | 0.16 – 0.23 | <0.001 | 0.27 | 0.24 – 0.30 | <0.001 |
| Education | 0.01 | -0.08 – 0.11 | 0.770 | -0.12 | -0.23 – -0.02 | 0.023 | 0.08 | -0.02 – 0.18 | 0.111 | -0.01 | -0.10 – 0.08 | 0.853 |
| Observations | 2119 | 2119 | 2119 | 2119 | ||||||||
| R2 / R2 adjusted | 0.450 / 0.448 | 0.451 / 0.449 | 0.411 / 0.409 | 0.494 / 0.493 | ||||||||
1.5.2 Religiosity
Figure X. Gun Control & Religiosity
1.5.3 Religiosity & Political Orientation
Figure X. Gun Control & Religiosity & Political Orientation
1.5.4 Candidate Preferences
Figure X. Gun Control & Candidate Preferences
| Candidate Preference | N | Mean | SD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ted Cruz | 169 | -0.65 | 0.77 |
| Donald Trump | 758 | -0.63 | 0.76 |
| Rand Paul | 65 | -0.33 | 0.79 |
| Gary Johnson | 95 | -0.08 | 0.86 |
| Jeb Bush | 143 | -0.04 | 0.86 |
| Bernie Sanders | 419 | 0.61 | 0.82 |
| Hillary Clinton | 463 | 0.79 | 0.75 |
| Candidate Preferences | N | Mean | SD | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ted Cruz | 169 | 3.04 | 2.03 | 1-9 |
| Donald Trump | 758 | 3.09 | 2.01 | 1-9 |
| Rand Paul | 65 | 3.87 | 2.07 | 1-9 |
| Gary Johnson | 95 | 4.54 | 2.27 | 1-9 |
| Jeb Bush | 143 | 4.63 | 2.26 | 1-9 |
| Bernie Sanders | 419 | 6.35 | 2.15 | 1-9 |
| Hillary Clinton | 463 | 6.80 | 1.96 | 1-9 |
Figure X. Gun Control & Candidate Preferences
1.5.5 Party Preferences
Figure X. Gun Control & Party Preferences
| Party Preference | N | Mean | SD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Constitution Party | 26 | -1.05 | 0.54 |
| Tea Party | 120 | -0.95 | 0.64 |
| Republican Party | 842 | -0.44 | 0.83 |
| Libertarian Party | 123 | -0.31 | 0.90 |
| Don’t know | 100 | -0.17 | 0.89 |
| None | 195 | 0.01 | 0.90 |
| Green Party | 38 | 0.53 | 0.69 |
| Democratic Party | 675 | 0.80 | 0.75 |
| Party Preferences | N | Mean | SD | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Constitution Party | 26 | 1.97 | 1.42 | 1-9 |
| Tea Party | 120 | 2.24 | 1.68 | 1-9 |
| Republican Party | 842 | 3.59 | 2.17 | 1-9 |
| Libertarian Party | 123 | 3.92 | 2.37 | 1-9 |
| Don’t know | 100 | 4.30 | 2.33 | 1-9 |
| None | 195 | 4.76 | 2.37 | 1-9 |
| Green Party | 38 | 6.13 | 1.80 | 1-9 |
| Democratic Party | 675 | 6.84 | 1.97 | 1-9 |
1.5.6 Voting
| 2016 [Trump vs. Clinton] | 2016 [Trump vs. Clinton] + Supporters | 2012 [Romney vs. Obama] | 2008 [McCain vs. Obama] | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predictors | Odds Ratios | CI | p | Odds Ratios | CI | p | Odds Ratios | CI | p | Odds Ratios | CI | p |
| (Intercept) | 0.01 | 0.01 – 0.02 | <0.001 | 0.01 | 0.01 – 0.02 | <0.001 | 0.04 | 0.03 – 0.05 | <0.001 | 0.05 | 0.04 – 0.07 | <0.001 |
| Gun Control | 2.21 | 2.06 – 2.37 | <0.001 | 2.17 | 2.03 – 2.32 | <0.001 | 1.85 | 1.75 – 1.95 | <0.001 | 1.74 | 1.65 – 1.83 | <0.001 |
| Observations | 1631 | 1694 | 1809 | 1773 | ||||||||
| R2 Tjur | 0.507 | 0.492 | 0.378 | 0.336 | ||||||||
1.5.7 Party Identity
Figure X. Gun Control & Party Identity
Figure X. Gun Control, Party Identity and Voting
Tables meant for checking the number of observations in each category of the above graph.
| Donald Trump | Hilary Clinton | |
|---|---|---|
| Strong Democrat | 2 | 326 |
| Democrat | 31 | 178 |
| Leaning Democrat | 8 | 131 |
| Independent | 53 | 30 |
| Leaning Republican | 123 | 8 |
| Republican | 274 | 33 |
| Strong Republican | 466 | 5 |
1.5.8 Voting & Party Identity
Figure X. Gun Control & Party Identity & Voting Preferences
| 2016 [Clinton vs. Trump] | 2016 [Trump vs. Clinton] + Supporters | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predictors | Odds Ratios | CI | p | Odds Ratios | CI | p |
| (Intercept) | 0.50 | 0.28 – 0.89 | 0.017 | 0.49 | 0.29 – 0.83 | 0.009 |
| Party Identity (dichotomous) | 0.01 | 0.01 – 0.02 | <0.001 | |||
| Party Identity (dichotomous) | 1.75 | 1.59 – 1.93 | <0.001 | 1.76 | 1.61 – 1.93 | <0.001 |
| Gun Control | 0.01 | 0.01 – 0.02 | <0.001 | |||
| Observations | 1631 | 1694 | ||||
| R2 Tjur | 0.791 | 0.783 | ||||
1.5.9 Likeability
1.5.10 Trump’s Likebility
Figure X. Gun Control & Trump’s Likebility
1.5.11 Clinton’s Likebility
Figure X. Gun Control & Clinton’s Likebility
1.5.12 Johnson’s Likebility
Figure X. Gun Control & Johnson’s Likebility
1.6 Politico-Psychological correlates of Gun Control
1.6.1 Ideologies and Partisanship
Figure X. Correlates of Gun Control
1.6.2 Populism, Nationalism, Nativism, and Patriotism
Figure X. Correlates of Gun Control
1.6.3 Political Psychology
Figure X. Correlates of Gun Control
1.6.4 Social Justice Concerns, Empathy, and Prejudice
Figure X. Correlates of Gun Control
1.6.5 Values
Figure X. Correlates of Gun Control
1.6.6 Pot-Pourri
Figure X. Correlates of Gun Control
1.6.7 Positive and Negative correlates of Gun Control
Figure X. Correlates of Gun Control
Figure X. Correlates of Gun Control
1.7 Summary
In terms of Demographics, males, in particular older (+65),
1.4.1 Social Class
Figure X. Gun Control as grouped by SES