“Playing the Black Card” | Attitudes towards blacks in the 2016 Election
Flavio Azevedo
22 May, 2018
1 Motivation: “Playing the Black Card” video
“Playing the black card” – a new video by Prager University goes far beyond ideological lines or or diversity of political views. Its content is downright racist aimed at the disparagement of blacks and their hardship.
- It frames being black as a privilege allowing unrestricted access to wealth & influence.
- It implicitly suggests that it is common to be black and not be discriminated or oppressed.
- It explicitly states that blacks use their skin color to intimidate whites and cower them into submission.
- It depicts successful blacks as hateful ingrates towards whites’ benevolence in “getting them there.”
- It belittles black writings and writers as creators of indecipherable prose.
- It describes civil rights, its advocates - and words as racism and diversity - as institutional tools to extort corporations
- It implies blacks often rebel and assault fellow citizens/business if the outcome of a “just and fair trial” don’t go their way (i.e., shootings of unarmed blacks by police).
- It normalizes and legitimizes segregation, the KKK and the Jim Crow laws.
- It denotes the underlying cause of blacks’ grievances in society stems from lack of discipline and responsibility for owns failures.
- And it equates being American to not protesting against racism.
The video comes with a quiz, study guide, facts and sources. It was released only hours ago and it has almost 100k views. PragerU YouTube channel has more than 1.400.000 million subscribers. And if you scroll down to comments, it gives a platform for racist and sexist comments.
Like anyone else, today I had other scholarly things to do - in my case, delivering a report on measurement invariance of Disgust instruments to fellow collaborators - but YouTube’s list of “recommended” videos displayed PragerU’s “Playing the Black card” video. The emotions ensuing from watching its propaganda drove me to stop my work and try to understand how the politico-psychological factors underlying attitudes towards black in the 2016 Election.
2 Analysis
Thankfully, I have been blessed with a nationally representative of the American population (N=1500) and a confirmatory convenience large sample (N=2119). These data were collected during the American general election in 2016. We hired a professional survey firm (SSI, a US-based market research institute that recruits participants from a panel of 7,139,027 American citizens; more information can be found at www.surveysampling.com). These data are unique in the sense they have many interesting political attitudes as well as psychological variables.
3 Summary of Results
When it comes to supporting the 1960’s Civil Rights Movement, there were important differences with respect to gender, age, race, area and religious affiliation. Women were much more supportive, as were the young and middle-aged, minority groups such as blacks and latinos, those self-identified as having no religion or being atheists/agnostics. In contrast, men, older and the elderly, whites, christians tended to support the Civil Rights movement less. There was also a divide in terms of living in rural vs. urban areas. Surprisingly, education seem to play no role. Along these lines, income and occupation show a diminute explanatory power, which only appears in contrasting groups at opposing sides. For occupation, there a marked disparity between retired vs. students (which likely be accounted by age). For income the very rich ($150,000+) tend to support the Civil Rights movements less than the average American, while those making from 15,000 to 24,999 tend to support more.
[Include Political Behaviour results]
But the most interesting questions are not concerned with the demographics or the partisanship or ideology of those holding these these beliefs, but rather with such questions as why people feel the way that they did or what is the implications of these beliefs are. Enter political psychology.
[Include correlates and Political Psychology results]
4 Support for 1960’s Civil Rights Movement
4.1 Demographics of Support for 1960’s Civil Rights Movement
We asked participants how positive or negative do you feel concerning the 1960’s Civil Rights Movement. Participants responded to this question in a 9-point scale ranging from extremely negative (1) to extremely positive (9).
4.1.2 Gender
Figure X. Support for 1960’s Civil Rights Movement as grouped by Gender
| Gender | N | Mean | SD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Male | 740 | -0.15 | 1.03 |
| Female | 760 | 0.14 | 0.95 |
4.1.3 Age
Figure X. Support for 1960’s Civil Rights Movement as grouped by Age
| Age | N | Mean | SD |
|---|---|---|---|
| 65+ | 254 | -0.23 | 1.05 |
| 45-54 years | 292 | -0.12 | 1.01 |
| 55-64 years | 234 | -0.07 | 0.99 |
| 35-44 years | 263 | 0.08 | 0.99 |
| 25-34 years | 264 | 0.18 | 0.92 |
| 18-24 years | 193 | 0.22 | 0.95 |
4.1.4 Education
Figure X. Support for 1960’s Civil Rights Movement as grouped by Education
| Education | N | Mean | SD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Graduate | 193 | -0.04 | 0.96 |
| Some college | 471 | -0.03 | 1.05 |
| Bachelor | 310 | 0.02 | 0.95 |
| Less than High-school | 51 | 0.02 | 1.08 |
| High-school | 475 | 0.03 | 0.99 |
4.1.5 Income Levels
Figure X. Support for 1960’s Civil Rights Movement as grouped by Income Levels
| Income Levels | N | Mean | SD |
|---|---|---|---|
| $150,000 + | 95 | -0.23 | 0.95 |
| $100,000-$149,999 | 160 | -0.08 | 1.03 |
| $75,000-$99,999 | 192 | -0.06 | 0.99 |
| $25,000-$34,999 | 176 | -0.02 | 0.99 |
| $35,000-$49,999 | 227 | 0.00 | 1.05 |
| Less than $15,000 | 178 | 0.00 | 1.06 |
| $50,000-$74,999 | 292 | 0.05 | 0.91 |
| $15,000-$24,999 | 180 | 0.20 | 1.01 |
4.1.6 Ethnicity
Figure X. Support for 1960’s Civil Rights Movement as grouped by Ethnicity
| Ethnicity | N | Mean | SD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Native American | 13 | -0.16 | 1.27 |
| Caucasian/European origin | 1237 | -0.06 | 1.01 |
| Asian/Pacific Islander | 29 | 0.04 | 0.89 |
| Latino | 88 | 0.21 | 0.86 |
| Other | 18 | 0.23 | 0.84 |
| Black/African America | 115 | 0.47 | 0.84 |
4.1.7 Occupation
Figure X. Support for 1960’s Civil Rights Movement as grouped by Occupation
| Occupation | N | Mean | SD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Retired | 268 | -0.13 | 1.03 |
| Disabled | 98 | -0.06 | 1.08 |
| Full-time caregiver | 31 | -0.05 | 1.17 |
| Employed | 768 | -0.01 | 0.98 |
| Parent | 104 | 0.06 | 1.00 |
| Student | 85 | 0.15 | 0.98 |
| Unemployed | 146 | 0.23 | 0.94 |
4.1.8 Area
Figure X. Support for 1960’s Civil Rights Movement as grouped by Area
| Area | N | Mean | SD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rural | 545 | -0.18 | 1.03 |
| Urban | 955 | 0.10 | 0.97 |
4.1.9 Religious Affiliation
Figure X. Support for 1960’s Civil Rights Movement as grouped by Religious Affiliation
| Religious Affiliation | N | Mean | SD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Christian | 1014 | -0.09 | 1.01 |
| Muslim | 9 | 0.05 | 0.91 |
| Jewish | 52 | 0.11 | 0.89 |
| No religion | 195 | 0.13 | 0.98 |
| Atheist/Agnostic | 230 | 0.25 | 0.96 |
5 Political Behavior and Support for 1960’s Civil Rights Movement
5.1 Political Orientation
Figure X. Support for 1960’s Civil Rights Movement & Political Orientation
Figure X. Support for 1960’s Civil Rights Movement & Political Orientation
| Political Orientation | Social Political Orientation | Economic Political Orientation | Composite Political Orientation | |||||||||
| B | CI | B | CI | B | CI | B | CI | |||||
| (Intercept) | 8.26 *** | 7.89 – 8.63 | 8.22 *** | 7.81 – 8.64 | 8.56 *** | 8.16 – 8.96 | 8.35 *** | 7.99 – 8.71 | ||||
| Support for 1960’s Civil Rights Movement | -0.45 *** | -0.50 – -0.40 | -0.50 *** | -0.56 – -0.44 | -0.47 *** | -0.53 – -0.41 | -0.47 *** | -0.53 – -0.42 | ||||
| Observations | 1500 | 1500 | 1500 | 1500 | ||||||||
| R2 / adj. R2 | .153 / .152 | .150 / .150 | .145 / .144 | .174 / .173 | ||||||||
| Notes | * p<.05 ** p<.01 *** p<.001 | |||||||||||
| Political Orientation | Social Political Orientation | Economic Political Orientation | Composite Political Orientation | |||||||||
| B | CI | B | CI | B | CI | B | CI | |||||
| (Intercept) | 4.85 *** | 4.30 – 5.40 | 4.63 *** | 4.04 – 5.22 | 4.96 *** | 4.34 – 5.58 | 4.81 *** | 4.29 – 5.34 | ||||
| Support for 1960’s Civil Rights Movement | -0.34 *** | -0.39 – -0.29 | -0.37 *** | -0.43 – -0.32 | -0.37 *** | -0.42 – -0.31 | -0.36 *** | -0.41 – -0.31 | ||||
| Age | 0.13 *** | 0.07 – 0.20 | 0.12 *** | 0.05 – 0.20 | 0.14 *** | 0.07 – 0.22 | 0.13 *** | 0.07 – 0.20 | ||||
| Income | 0.07 * | 0.02 – 0.13 | -0.02 | -0.08 – 0.04 | 0.12 *** | 0.05 – 0.18 | 0.06 * | 0.00 – 0.11 | ||||
| Religiosity | 0.35 *** | 0.32 – 0.39 | 0.47 *** | 0.43 – 0.51 | 0.28 *** | 0.23 – 0.32 | 0.37 *** | 0.33 – 0.40 | ||||
| Education | -0.12 * | -0.23 – -0.02 | -0.16 ** | -0.28 – -0.05 | 0.04 | -0.08 – 0.16 | -0.08 | -0.18 – 0.02 | ||||
| Gender | 0.65 *** | 0.44 – 0.85 | 0.72 *** | 0.49 – 0.94 | 0.62 *** | 0.38 – 0.85 | 0.66 *** | 0.46 – 0.86 | ||||
| Urban vs. Rural | 0.34 ** | 0.13 – 0.56 | 0.33 ** | 0.10 – 0.56 | 0.24 * | 0.00 – 0.49 | 0.31 ** | 0.10 – 0.51 | ||||
| Observations | 1500 | 1500 | 1500 | 1500 | ||||||||
| R2 / adj. R2 | .359 / .356 | .412 / .410 | .279 / .275 | .396 / .393 | ||||||||
| Notes | * p<.05 ** p<.01 *** p<.001 | |||||||||||
5.2 Candidate Preferences
Figure X. Support for 1960’s Civil Rights Movement & Candidate Preferences
| Candidate Preference | N | Mean | SD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rand Paul | 44 | -0.49 | 1.04 |
| Donald Trump | 444 | -0.42 | 1.06 |
| Ted Cruz | 122 | -0.42 | 0.91 |
| Jeb Bush | 83 | -0.20 | 1.03 |
| Gary Johnson | 68 | 0.03 | 0.90 |
| Hillary Clinton | 371 | 0.34 | 0.81 |
| Bernie Sanders | 362 | 0.40 | 0.84 |
| Candidate Preferences | N | Mean | SD | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rand Paul | 44 | 5.52 | 2.23 | 1-9 |
| Donald Trump | 444 | 5.68 | 2.26 | 1-9 |
| Ted Cruz | 122 | 5.68 | 1.94 | 1-9 |
| Jeb Bush | 83 | 6.14 | 2.20 | 1-9 |
| Gary Johnson | 68 | 6.63 | 1.92 | 1-9 |
| Hillary Clinton | 371 | 7.30 | 1.72 | 1-9 |
| Bernie Sanders | 362 | 7.42 | 1.78 | 1-9 |
Figure X. Support for 1960’s Civil Rights Movement & Candidate Preferences
5.3 Party Preferences
Figure X. Support for 1960’s Civil Rights Movement & Party Preferences
| Party Preference | N | Mean | SD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tea Party | 68 | -0.84 | 1.15 |
| Republican Party | 508 | -0.37 | 1.01 |
| Constitution Party | 14 | -0.20 | 0.92 |
| None | 120 | -0.14 | 0.95 |
| Don’t know | 90 | -0.10 | 0.90 |
| Libertarian Party | 100 | 0.03 | 0.94 |
| Green Party | 40 | 0.36 | 1.04 |
| Democratic Party | 560 | 0.45 | 0.77 |
| Party Preferences | N | Mean | SD | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tea Party | 68 | 4.76 | 2.44 | 1-9 |
| Republican Party | 508 | 5.78 | 2.15 | 1-9 |
| Constitution Party | 14 | 6.14 | 1.96 | 1-9 |
| None | 120 | 6.28 | 2.03 | 1-9 |
| Don’t know | 90 | 6.34 | 1.93 | 1-9 |
| Libertarian Party | 100 | 6.63 | 2.01 | 1-9 |
| Green Party | 40 | 7.33 | 2.21 | 1-9 |
| Democratic Party | 560 | 7.53 | 1.64 | 1-9 |
5.4 Voting
| 2016 [Trump vs. Clinton] | 2016 [Trump vs. Clinton] + Supporters | 2012 [Romney vs. Obama] | 2008 [McCain vs. Obama] | |||||||||
| Odds Ratio | CI | Odds Ratio | CI | Odds Ratio | CI | Odds Ratio | CI | |||||
| (Intercept) | 0.05 *** | 0.03 – 0.08 | 0.05 *** | 0.03 – 0.08 | 0.09 *** | 0.06 – 0.14 | 0.11 *** | 0.07 – 0.16 | ||||
| Support for 1960’s Civil Rights Movement | 1.59 *** | 1.48 – 1.71 | 1.59 *** | 1.48 – 1.71 | 1.47 *** | 1.38 – 1.57 | 1.44 *** | 1.36 – 1.54 | ||||
| Observations | 1103 | 1148 | 1236 | 1206 | ||||||||
| Notes | * p<.05 ** p<.01 *** p<.001 | |||||||||||
5.4.1 Party Identity
Figure X. Support for 1960’s Civil Rights Movement & Party Identity
Figure X. Support for 1960’s Civil Rights Movement, Party Identity and Voting
Tables meant for checking the number of observations in each category of the above graph.
| Donald Trump | Hilary Clinton | |
|---|---|---|
| Strong Democrat | 4 | 323 |
| Democrat | 27 | 129 |
| Leaning Democrat | 10 | 65 |
| Independent | 17 | 16 |
| Leaning Republican | 58 | 7 |
| Republican | 166 | 24 |
| Strong Republican | 282 | 7 |
5.4.2 Party Identity
5.4.2.1 with both representative (N = 1500) and convinience (2119) samples.
Figure X. Support for 1960’s Civil Rights Movement, Party Identity and Voting
Tables meant for checking the number of observations in each category of the above graph.
| Donald Trump | Hilary Clinton | |
|---|---|---|
| Strong Democrat | 6 | 649 |
| Democrat | 58 | 307 |
| Leaning Democrat | 18 | 196 |
| Independent | 70 | 46 |
| Leaning Republican | 181 | 15 |
| Republican | 440 | 57 |
| Strong Republican | 748 | 12 |
5.4.3 Voting & Party Identity
Figure X. Support for 1960’s Civil Rights Movement & Party Identity & Voting Preferences
| 2016 [Clinton vs. Trump] | 2016 [Trump vs. Clinton] + Supporters | |||||
| Odds Ratio | CI | Odds Ratio | CI | |||
| (Intercept) | 2.371 * | 1.021 – 5.693 | 1.862 | 0.843 – 4.211 | ||
| Party Identity | 0.007 *** | 0.004 – 0.011 | 0.009 *** | 0.005 – 0.013 | ||
| Support for 1960’s Civil Rights Movement | 1.286 *** | 1.143 – 1.447 | 1.299 *** | 1.163 – 1.453 | ||
| Observations | 1103 | 1148 | ||||
| Notes | * p<.05 ** p<.01 *** p<.001 | |||||
5.5 Likeability
5.5.1 Trump’s Likebility
Figure X. Support for 1960’s Civil Rights Movement & Trump’s Likebility
5.5.2 Clinton’s Likebility
Figure X. Support for 1960’s Civil Rights Movement & Clinton’s Likebility
5.5.3 Johnson’s Likebility
Figure X. Support for 1960’s Civil Rights Movement & Johnson’s Likebility
6 Correlates of support for the 1960’s Civil Rights Movement
6.1 Ideology and Partisanship & support for the 1960’s Civil Rights Movement
Figure X. Correlates of support for the 1960’s Civil Rights Movement
6.2 Nationalism, Nativism, Patriotism, Populism, and Conspiracy & support for the 1960’s Civil Rights Movement
Figure X. Correlates of support for the 1960’s Civil Rights Movement
6.3 Political Psychology & support for the 1960’s Civil Rights Movement
Figure X. Correlates of support for the 1960’s Civil Rights Movement
6.4 Values & support for the 1960’s Civil Rights Movement
Figure X. Correlates of support for the 1960’s Civil Rights Movement
6.5 Positive and Negative correlates of support for the 1960’s Civil Rights Movement
Figure X. Correlates of support for the 1960’s Civil Rights Movement
Figure X. Correlates of support for the 1960’s Civil Rights Movement
4.1.1 Social Class
Figure X. Support for 1960’s Civil Rights Movement as grouped by SES