PPBS

Nationalism [2016]

A Politico-Psychological Analysis

Report generated

June 15, 2026

1 Study Characteristics

1.1 Items: Nationalism

1.2 Sample

N=1500

To conduct a exploratory and a confirmatory large surveys during the general election, we hired a professional survey firm (SSI, a US-based market research company that recruits participants from a panel of 7,139,027 American citizens; more information can be found at www.surveysampling.com (now https://www.dynata.com/) to recruit a nationally representative sample of 1,500 Americans (50.7% women) who completed study materials during the general election from August 16-September 9, 2016. (Information about sampling and exclusion criteria is included in the Supplement). The age distribution was as follows: 18-24 (12.9%), 25-34 (17.6%), 35-44 (17.5%), 45-54 (19.5%), 55-65 (15.6%) and older than 65 (16.9%). The ethnic breakdown was: White/European American (82.5%), Black/African American (7.7%), Latino (5.9%) and “Other” (4.0%). Concerning religion, 67.6% identified as Christian, 17.1% as religiously affiliated but not Christian, and 15.3% as Atheist/Agnostic. With respect to education 35.1% indicated “high school only or lower,” 31.4 % indicated “some college,” and 33.6% indicated having received a “Bachelor” or “Graduate” degree. 2424 participants were directed to the survey, 1885 of which finished the survey (attrition rate 22%).

We followed recommendations to minimize the problem of careless responding in online studies. Specifically, we employed 10 random attention questions and time controls to check for data quality. There were 385 participants who failed more than one attention check or finished the survey in under ~22 minutes and were therefore excluded from the sample. For the 1500 participants who successfully finished the survey, completion time was 67 minutes on average (MD: 51min).

2 Descriptives

2.1 Means, SD, Range, & SE

Table 1: Descriptives
Descriptives for Nationalism
mean sd
Nationalism_mean 3.40 2.07
Ethnic_Nationalism_mean 3.16 1.94
Nationalism 3.28 1.83
Note:
n = 1500, median = 3, min = 1, max = 9, se = 0.05
Table 2: Descriptives – Item Level
Descriptives for Nationalism at Item Level
mean sd
Nationalism1 3.40 2.07
Ethnic_Nationalism1 3.16 1.94
Nationalism 3.28 1.83
Nationalism_mean 3.40 2.07
Ethnic_Nationalism_mean 3.16 1.94
Note:
All items: n = 1500, median = 3, min = 1, max = 9, se = 0.05. Nationalism: median = 3, min = 1, max = 9, se = 0.05. Nationalism_mean: median = 3, min = 1, max = 9, se = 0.05. Ethnic_Nationalism_mean: median = 3, min = 1, max = 9, se = 0.05

2.2 Response Distribution

Figure 1: Proportion of each construct of Nationalism at item level: Nationalism
Figure 2: Proportion of each construct of Nationalism at item level: Ethnic_Nationalism
Figure 3: Nationalism
Figure 4: Ethnic_Nationalism

2.3 Correlations

2.3.1 Correlation Plots

Figure 5: Bivariate Spearman correlations: Nationalism
Figure 6: Bivariate Spearman correlations: Nationalism
Figure 7: Bivariate Spearman correlations: Ethnic_Nationalism

Note. Upper triangle shows Spearman’s rank-order correlations. *** p < .001, ** p < .01, * p < .05.

2.3.2 PIDF

Figure 8: Bivariate Spearman correlations by party identity: Nationalism
Figure 9: Bivariate Spearman correlations by party identity: Nationalism
Figure 10: Bivariate Spearman correlations by party identity: Ethnic_Nationalism

Note. Upper triangle shows Spearman’s rank-order correlations by party identity. *** p < .001, ** p < .01, * p < .05.

2.3.3 Correlation Matrix

3 Demographics

3.1 Social Class

Figure 11: Nationalism
Figure 12: Nationalism
Figure 13: Ethnic_Nationalism
Figure 14: Nationalism
Figure 15: Nationalism
Figure 16: Ethnic_Nationalism

Note on the Raincloud Plots

  • Statistical summary (top): Welch’s t-test (or ANOVA) results, effect size, confidence intervals, p-values, and sample sizes are shown above each plot.
  • Bayesian analysis (bottom): Log Bayes factor and credible intervals are reported below each plot.
Table 3
Table 4: Ethnic_Nationalism as grouped by SES
(a)
SES N Mean SD
Poor 38 0.39 1.19
Lower Middle Class 298 0.16 1.08
Middle Middle Class 679 -0.03 0.98
Upper Middle Class 395 -0.07 0.97
Rich 90 -0.16 0.87
(b)
SES N Mean SD
Poor 38 0.30 1.11
Lower Middle Class 298 0.20 1.06
Middle Middle Class 679 -0.02 1.00
Upper Middle Class 395 -0.09 0.95
Rich 90 -0.27 0.82
(c)
SES N Mean SD
Poor 38 0.41 1.33
Lower Middle Class 298 0.09 1.07
Middle Middle Class 679 -0.04 0.96
Upper Middle Class 395 -0.03 0.99
Rich 90 -0.01 0.88

3.2 Gender

Figure 17: Nationalism Facets, as grouped by Gender: Nationalism
Figure 18: Nationalism Facets, as grouped by Gender: Nationalism
Figure 19: Nationalism Facets, as grouped by Gender: Ethnic_Nationalism
Figure 20: Nationalism
Figure 21: Nationalism
Figure 22: Ethnic_Nationalism
Table 5
Table 6: Ethnic_Nationalism as grouped by Gender
(a)
Gender N Mean SD
Female 760 0.15 1.03
Male 740 -0.16 0.95
(b)
Gender N Mean SD
Female 760 0.15 1.03
Male 740 -0.16 0.95
(c)
Gender N Mean SD
Female 760 0.13 1.03
Male 740 -0.13 0.96

3.3 Age

Figure 23: Nationalism
Figure 24: Nationalism
Figure 25: Ethnic_Nationalism
Figure 26: Nationalism
Figure 27: Nationalism
Figure 28: Ethnic_Nationalism
Table 7
Table 8: Ethnic_Nationalism as grouped by Age
(a)
Age N Mean SD
18-24 years 193 0.42 1.21
25-34 years 264 0.36 1.02
35-44 years 263 0.05 0.95
45-54 years 292 -0.06 0.93
55-64 years 234 -0.26 0.83
65+ 254 -0.43 0.80
(b)
Age N Mean SD
18-24 years 193 0.40 1.15
25-34 years 264 0.32 1.06
35-44 years 263 0.09 0.99
45-54 years 292 -0.04 0.94
55-64 years 234 -0.26 0.83
65+ 254 -0.43 0.77
(c)
Age N Mean SD
18-24 years 193 0.36 1.21
25-34 years 264 0.35 1.03
35-44 years 263 0.00 0.98
45-54 years 292 -0.07 0.93
55-64 years 234 -0.21 0.82
65+ 254 -0.35 0.84

3.4 Education

Figure 29: Nationalism
Figure 30: Nationalism
Figure 31: Ethnic_Nationalism
Figure 32: Nationalism
Figure 33: Nationalism
Figure 34: Ethnic_Nationalism
Table 9
Table 10: Ethnic_Nationalism as grouped by Education
(a)
Education N Mean SD
Less than High School 51 -0.04 1.14
High School 475 0.04 1.06
Some College 471 -0.02 0.96
Bachelor 310 0.00 0.99
Graduate 193 -0.02 0.93
(b)
Education N Mean SD
Less than High School 51 0.00 1.11
High School 475 0.03 1.04
Some College 471 0.01 1.01
Bachelor 310 0.00 0.98
Graduate 193 -0.09 0.88
(c)
Education N Mean SD
Less than High School 51 -0.07 1.11
High School 475 0.04 1.05
Some College 471 -0.06 0.96
Bachelor 310 0.00 0.98
Graduate 193 0.06 0.98

3.5 Income Levels

Figure 35: Nationalism
Figure 36: Nationalism
Figure 37: Ethnic_Nationalism
Figure 38: Nationalism
Figure 39: Nationalism
Figure 40: Ethnic_Nationalism
Table 11
Table 12: Ethnic_Nationalism as grouped by Income Levels
(a)
Income Levels N Mean SD
Less than $15,000 178 0.27 1.07
$15,000-$24,999 180 0.05 0.99
$25,000-$34,999 176 -0.01 1.07
$35,000-$49,999 227 -0.03 1.00
$50,000-$74,999 292 0.00 0.92
$75,000-$99,999 192 0.03 1.00
$100,000-$149,999 160 -0.29 0.86
$150,000 + 95 -0.11 1.07
(b)
Income Levels N Mean SD
Less than $15,000 178 0.27 1.04
$15,000-$24,999 180 0.09 0.97
$25,000-$34,999 176 -0.03 1.05
$35,000-$49,999 227 0.03 1.00
$50,000-$74,999 292 0.03 0.99
$75,000-$99,999 192 -0.01 0.99
$100,000-$149,999 160 -0.34 0.84
$150,000 + 95 -0.16 1.02
(c)
Income Levels N Mean SD
Less than $15,000 178 0.23 1.10
$15,000-$24,999 180 0.01 1.01
$25,000-$34,999 176 0.02 1.09
$35,000-$49,999 227 -0.08 1.00
$50,000-$74,999 292 -0.02 0.90
$75,000-$99,999 192 0.07 1.01
$100,000-$149,999 160 -0.19 0.87
$150,000 + 95 -0.04 1.04

3.6 Ethnicity

Figure 41: Nationalism
Figure 42: Nationalism
Figure 43: Ethnic_Nationalism

Note on the Okabe-Ito color palette. The Okabe-Ito color palette (seen above) is a set of colorblind-friendly categorical colors available in R. We are using this palette for graphs with non-ordered variables (e.g., groups, categories) for accessibility.

Figure 44: Nationalism
Figure 45: Nationalism
Figure 46: Ethnic_Nationalism
Table 13
Table 14: Ethnic_Nationalism as grouped by Ethnicity
(a)
Ethnicity N Mean SD
Caucasian/European origin 1237 -0.04 0.99
Black/African American 115 0.22 1.11
Latino 88 -0.02 1.00
Asian/Pacific Islander 29 0.41 1.02
Native American 13 0.14 0.91
Other 18 0.44 0.81
(b)
Ethnicity N Mean SD
Caucasian/European origin 1237 -0.03 0.98
Black/African American 115 0.14 1.14
Latino 88 0.03 1.06
Asian/Pacific Islander 29 0.36 1.11
Native American 13 0.25 0.89
Other 18 0.37 0.93
(c)
Ethnicity N Mean SD
Caucasian/European origin 1237 -0.03 0.99
Black/African American 115 0.25 1.13
Latino 88 -0.07 0.98
Asian/Pacific Islander 29 0.40 0.94
Native American 13 0.00 1.01
Other 18 0.43 0.85

3.7 Occupation

Figure 47: Nationalism
Figure 48: Nationalism
Figure 49: Ethnic_Nationalism
Figure 50: Nationalism
Figure 51: Nationalism
Figure 52: Ethnic_Nationalism
Table 15
Table 16: Ethnic_Nationalism as grouped by Occupation
(a)
Occupation N Mean SD
Employed 768 0.02 0.98
Retired 268 -0.38 0.79
Unemployed 146 0.29 1.16
Parent 104 -0.12 0.86
Disabled 98 -0.02 1.03
Student 85 0.67 1.14
Full-time caregiver 31 0.00 0.90
(b)
Occupation N Mean SD
Employed 768 0.01 1.00
Retired 268 -0.40 0.77
Unemployed 146 0.28 1.08
Parent 104 -0.10 0.88
Disabled 98 0.04 1.06
Student 85 0.67 1.11
Full-time caregiver 31 0.12 0.85
(c)
Occupation N Mean SD
Employed 768 0.03 0.98
Retired 268 -0.29 0.83
Unemployed 146 0.25 1.18
Parent 104 -0.12 0.84
Disabled 98 -0.09 1.00
Student 85 0.56 1.16
Full-time caregiver 31 -0.13 0.97

3.8 Area

Figure 53: Nationalism
Figure 54: Nationalism
Figure 55: Ethnic_Nationalism
Figure 56: Nationalism
Figure 57: Nationalism
Figure 58: Ethnic_Nationalism
Table 17
Table 18: Ethnic_Nationalism as grouped by Area
(a)
Area N Mean SD
Urban 955 0.02 1.03
Rural 545 -0.04 0.95
(b)
Area N Mean SD
Urban 955 0.01 1.01
Rural 545 -0.01 0.98
(c)
Area N Mean SD
Urban 955 0.04 1.02
Rural 545 -0.06 0.96

3.9 Religious Affiliation

Figure 59: Nationalism
Figure 60: Nationalism
Figure 61: Ethnic_Nationalism
Figure 62: Nationalism
Figure 63: Nationalism
Figure 64: Ethnic_Nationalism
Table 19
Table 20: Ethnic_Nationalism as grouped by Religious Affiliation
(a)
Religious Affiliation N Mean SD
Christian 1014 -0.15 0.90
Muslim 9 0.30 1.23
Jewish 52 -0.20 0.84
Atheist/Agnostic 230 0.55 1.12
Not listed, No religion 195 0.17 1.10
(b)
Religious Affiliation N Mean SD
Christian 1014 -0.13 0.94
Muslim 9 0.51 1.28
Jewish 52 -0.25 0.81
Atheist/Agnostic 230 0.47 1.04
Not listed, No religion 195 0.15 1.11
(c)
Religious Affiliation N Mean SD
Christian 1014 -0.15 0.90
Muslim 9 0.03 1.23
Jewish 52 -0.11 0.85
Atheist/Agnostic 230 0.54 1.18
Not listed, No religion 195 0.16 1.08

3.10 Section Summary

  Nationalism
Predictors Estimates CI p
(Intercept) 4.76 4.39 – 5.14 <.001
Age -0.31 -0.36 – -0.25 <.001
Income -0.07 -0.12 – -0.02 .005
Education 0.16 0.06 – 0.25 .001
Gender (Male) -0.37 -0.55 – -0.19 <.001
Observations 1500
R2 / R2 adjusted .104 / .102

4 Political Behavior

4.1 Political Orientation

Correlation with General Conservatism, Economic Conservatism, Social Conservatism

Figure 65: Nationalism
Figure 66: Nationalism
Figure 67: Ethnic_Nationalism
Figure 68: Nationalism
Figure 69: Nationalism
Figure 70: Ethnic_Nationalism
Figure 71: Nationalism
Figure 72: Nationalism
Figure 73: Ethnic_Nationalism

Note. The y-axis shows residuals after regressing the outcome on demographics (Age, Income, Education, Gender). This illustrates how much the focal construct explains beyond demographic factors.

Table 21: Nationalism and Political Orientation
  Political Orientation Social Political Orientation Economic Political Orientation Composite Political Orientation
Predictors Estimates CI p Estimates CI p Estimates CI p Estimates CI p
(Intercept) 5.31 5.19 – 5.42 <.001 4.93 4.80 – 5.06 <.001 5.48 5.35 – 5.61 <.001 5.24 5.12 – 5.35 <.001
Nationalism -0.77 -0.88 – -0.65 <.001 -0.83 -0.96 – -0.69 <.001 -0.74 -0.87 – -0.61 <.001 -0.78 -0.89 – -0.66 <.001
Observations 1500 1500 1500 1500
R2 / R2 adjusted .097 / .097 .090 / .089 .079 / .079 .103 / .102
  Political Orientation Social Political Orientation Economic Political Orientation Composite Political Orientation
Predictors Estimates CI p Estimates CI p Estimates CI p Estimates CI p
(Intercept) 5.31 5.19 – 5.43 <.001 4.93 4.79 – 5.06 <.001 5.48 5.35 – 5.61 <.001 5.24 5.12 – 5.36 <.001
Nationalism -0.65 -0.77 – -0.53 <.001 -0.69 -0.82 – -0.55 <.001 -0.64 -0.77 – -0.51 <.001 -0.66 -0.78 – -0.54 <.001
Observations 1500 1500 1500 1500
R2 / R2 adjusted .071 / .070 .062 / .061 .059 / .059 .074 / .073
  Political Orientation Social Political Orientation Economic Political Orientation Composite Political Orientation
Predictors Estimates CI p Estimates CI p Estimates CI p Estimates CI p
(Intercept) 5.31 5.19 – 5.42 <.001 4.93 4.80 – 5.06 <.001 5.48 5.35 – 5.61 <.001 5.24 5.12 – 5.35 <.001
Ethnic_Nationalism -0.75 -0.87 – -0.63 <.001 -0.83 -0.97 – -0.70 <.001 -0.72 -0.84 – -0.59 <.001 -0.77 -0.88 – -0.65 <.001
Observations 1500 1500 1500 1500
R2 / R2 adjusted .093 / .093 .091 / .090 .074 / .073 .100 / .099
Table 22: Nationalism models and Demographics
  Political Orientation Social Political Orientation Economic Political Orientation Composite Political Orientation
Predictors Estimates CI p Estimates CI p Estimates CI p Estimates CI p
(Intercept) 4.95 4.36 – 5.53 <.001 5.08 4.42 – 5.75 <.001 4.33 3.70 – 4.96 <.001 4.79 4.21 – 5.36 <.001
Nationalism -0.33 -0.40 – -0.26 <.001 -0.37 -0.44 – -0.29 <.001 -0.31 -0.38 – -0.24 <.001 -0.34 -0.40 – -0.27 <.001
Age 0.21 0.14 – 0.29 <.001 0.24 0.15 – 0.33 <.001 0.21 0.12 – 0.29 <.001 0.22 0.15 – 0.30 <.001
Income 0.05 -0.01 – 0.12 .115 -0.04 -0.12 – 0.03 .268 0.10 0.03 – 0.17 .004 0.04 -0.03 – 0.10 .245
Education -0.14 -0.26 – -0.01 .029 -0.19 -0.33 – -0.05 .009 0.02 -0.11 – 0.16 .721 -0.10 -0.22 – 0.02 .107
Gender (Male) 0.59 0.35 – 0.82 <.001 0.64 0.37 – 0.91 <.001 0.61 0.35 – 0.86 <.001 0.61 0.38 – 0.84 <.001
Observations 1500 1500 1500 1500
R2 / R2 adjusted .137 / .134 .127 / .124 .126 / .123 .145 / .142

4.2 Partisanship

Figure 74: Nationalism
Figure 75: Nationalism
Figure 76: Ethnic_Nationalism
Table 23: Mean Nationalism by Party Identity (raw means)
Party Identity N Mean SD
Strong Democrat 351 3.61 1.97
Democrat 223 3.73 1.92
Leaning Democrat 124 4.04 1.91
Independent 84 4.12 1.86
Leaning Republican 111 3.18 1.61
Republican 255 2.85 1.52
Strong Republican 318 2.44 1.43
Table 24: Mean Nationalism by Party Identity (raw means)
Party Identity N Mean SD
Strong Democrat 351 3.61 2.16
Democrat 223 3.84 2.19
Leaning Democrat 124 4.14 2.12
Independent 84 4.45 2.10
Leaning Republican 111 3.44 2.03
Republican 255 2.96 1.78
Strong Republican 318 2.58 1.72
Table 25: Mean Ethnic_Nationalism by Party Identity (raw means)
Party Identity N Mean SD
Strong Democrat 351 3.61 2.10
Democrat 223 3.61 2.08
Leaning Democrat 124 3.94 2.09
Independent 84 3.80 1.89
Leaning Republican 111 2.91 1.58
Republican 255 2.74 1.64
Strong Republican 318 2.30 1.45
Table 26: Nationalism & Party Identity (7-point)
  Nationalism
Predictors Estimates CI p
(Intercept) 4.09 3.91 – 4.27 <.001
Party Identity (7-point) -0.21 -0.24 – -0.17 <.001
Observations 1466
R2 / R2 adjusted .070 / .069
  Nationalism
Predictors Estimates CI p
(Intercept) 4.13 3.92 – 4.33 <.001
Party Identity (7-point) -0.19 -0.23 – -0.14 <.001
Observations 1466
R2 / R2 adjusted .045 / .044
  Ethnic_Nationalism
Predictors Estimates CI p
(Intercept) 4.05 3.87 – 4.24 <.001
Party Identity (7-point) -0.23 -0.27 – -0.18 <.001
Observations 1466
R2 / R2 adjusted .076 / .075
Table 27: Nationalism & Party Identity with Controls
  Nationalism
Predictors Estimates CI p
(Intercept) 5.01 4.63 – 5.39 <.001
Party Identity (7-point) -0.15 -0.19 – -0.11 <.001
Age -0.27 -0.32 – -0.21 <.001
Income -0.06 -0.11 – -0.01 .023
Education 0.13 0.04 – 0.23 .006
Gender (Male) -0.23 -0.41 – -0.05 .014
Observations 1466
R2 / R2 adjusted .137 / .134
  Nationalism
Predictors Estimates CI p
(Intercept) 5.33 4.89 – 5.77 <.001
Party Identity (7-point) -0.12 -0.17 – -0.08 <.001
Age -0.29 -0.36 – -0.23 <.001
Income -0.09 -0.14 – -0.03 .003
Education 0.14 0.03 – 0.24 .013
Gender (Male) -0.30 -0.51 – -0.10 .004
Observations 1466
R2 / R2 adjusted .114 / .111
  Ethnic_Nationalism
Predictors Estimates CI p
(Intercept) 4.69 4.29 – 5.10 <.001
Party Identity (7-point) -0.18 -0.22 – -0.14 <.001
Age -0.24 -0.30 – -0.18 <.001
Income -0.03 -0.08 – 0.02 .273
Education 0.13 0.03 – 0.23 .011
Gender (Male) -0.15 -0.35 – 0.04 .121
Observations 1466
R2 / R2 adjusted .120 / .116

4.3 Religiosity

Figure 77: Nationalism
Figure 78: Nationalism
Figure 79: Ethnic_Nationalism
Figure 80: Nationalism
Figure 81: Nationalism
Figure 82: Ethnic_Nationalism

Note. The y-axis shows residuals after regressing the outcome on demographics (Age, Income, Education, Gender). This illustrates how much the focal construct explains beyond demographic factors.

Figure 83: Nationalism
Figure 84: Nationalism
Figure 85: Ethnic_Nationalism

4.4 Candidate Preferences

Figure 86: Nationalism
Figure 87: Nationalism
Figure 88: Ethnic_Nationalism
Table 28: Candidate Preference and Nationalism [centered]
Candidate Preference N Mean SD
Donald Trump 444 -0.37 0.82
Hillary Clinton 371 -0.04 0.92
Bernie Sanders 362 0.59 1.08
Ted Cruz 122 -0.34 0.89
Jeb Bush 83 -0.20 0.77
Gary Johnson 68 0.20 1.00
Rand Paul 44 0.18 0.97
Table 29: Candidate Preference and Nationalism [centered]
Candidate Preference N Mean SD
Donald Trump 444 -0.31 0.86
Hillary Clinton 371 -0.09 0.90
Bernie Sanders 362 0.55 1.08
Ted Cruz 122 -0.28 0.93
Jeb Bush 83 -0.20 0.77
Gary Johnson 68 0.21 1.10
Rand Paul 44 0.26 0.97
Table 30: Candidate Preference and Ethnic_Nationalism [centered]
Candidate Preference N Mean SD
Donald Trump 444 -0.36 0.81
Hillary Clinton 371 0.02 0.93
Bernie Sanders 362 0.53 1.13
Ted Cruz 122 -0.34 0.84
Jeb Bush 83 -0.15 0.79
Gary Johnson 68 0.14 1.05
Rand Paul 44 0.07 0.94
Table 31: Candidate Preference and Nationalism [raw means]
Candidate Preference N Mean SD
Donald Trump 444 2.61 1.50
Hillary Clinton 371 3.21 1.69
Bernie Sanders 362 4.36 1.99
Ted Cruz 122 2.66 1.62
Jeb Bush 83 2.92 1.41
Gary Johnson 68 3.64 1.83
Rand Paul 44 3.61 1.78
Table 32: Candidate Preference and Nationalism [raw means]
Candidate Preference N Mean SD
Donald Trump 444 2.75 1.78
Hillary Clinton 371 3.22 1.87
Bernie Sanders 362 4.53 2.23
Ted Cruz 122 2.82 1.93
Jeb Bush 83 2.98 1.60
Gary Johnson 68 3.84 2.27
Rand Paul 44 3.93 2.00
Table 33: Candidate Preference and Ethnic_Nationalism [raw means]
Candidate Preference N Mean SD
Donald Trump 444 2.47 1.56
Hillary Clinton 371 3.21 1.80
Bernie Sanders 362 4.18 2.20
Ted Cruz 122 2.50 1.62
Jeb Bush 83 2.87 1.52
Gary Johnson 68 3.44 2.03
Rand Paul 44 3.30 1.82

4.5 Party Preferences

Figure 89: Nationalism
Figure 90: Nationalism
Figure 91: Ethnic_Nationalism
Table 34: Party Preference and Nationalism [centered]
Party Preference N Mean SD
Democratic Party 560 0.17 1.01
Republican Party 508 -0.35 0.82
Libertarian Party 100 0.29 1.02
Green Party 40 1.17 1.23
Tea Party 68 -0.67 0.76
Constitution Party 14 0.18 0.60
None 120 0.24 0.98
Don't know 90 0.21 0.96
Table 35: Party Preference and Nationalism [centered]
Party Preference N Mean SD
Democratic Party 560 0.12 1.01
Republican Party 508 -0.30 0.85
Libertarian Party 100 0.33 1.11
Green Party 40 1.12 1.11
Tea Party 68 -0.62 0.77
Constitution Party 14 0.39 0.69
None 120 0.20 0.94
Don't know 90 0.26 1.01
Table 36: Party Preference and Ethnic_Nationalism [centered]
Party Preference N Mean SD
Democratic Party 560 0.21 1.03
Republican Party 508 -0.34 0.79
Libertarian Party 100 0.20 1.04
Green Party 40 1.01 1.37
Tea Party 68 -0.59 0.80
Constitution Party 14 -0.08 0.81
None 120 0.23 1.03
Don't know 90 0.11 0.90
Table 37: Party Preference and Nationalism [raw means]
Party Preference N Mean SD
Democratic Party 560 3.60 1.85
Republican Party 508 2.64 1.50
Libertarian Party 100 3.82 1.88
Green Party 40 5.42 2.26
Tea Party 68 2.06 1.40
Constitution Party 14 3.61 1.10
None 120 3.71 1.79
Don't know 90 3.66 1.76
Table 38: Party Preference and Nationalism [raw means]
Party Preference N Mean SD
Democratic Party 560 3.64 2.08
Republican Party 508 2.77 1.77
Libertarian Party 100 4.08 2.29
Green Party 40 5.72 2.30
Tea Party 68 2.10 1.58
Constitution Party 14 4.21 1.42
None 120 3.81 1.95
Don't know 90 3.93 2.09
Table 39: Party Preference and Ethnic_Nationalism [raw means]
Party Preference N Mean SD
Democratic Party 560 3.56 1.99
Republican Party 508 2.51 1.53
Libertarian Party 100 3.55 2.01
Green Party 40 5.12 2.65
Tea Party 68 2.01 1.55
Constitution Party 14 3.00 1.57
None 120 3.62 1.99
Don't know 90 3.38 1.75

4.6 Voting

Table 40: Nationalism Voting Preferences
  2016 [Trump vs. Clinton] 2016 [Trump vs. Clinton] + Supporters 2012 [Romney vs. Obama] 2008 [McCain vs. Obama]
Predictors Log-Odds CI p Log-Odds CI p Log-Odds CI p Log-Odds CI p
(Intercept) .078 -Inf – Inf .222 .055 -Inf – Inf .372 .207 -Inf – Inf .001 .248 -Inf – Inf <.001
Nationalism .643 -Inf – Inf <.001 .613 -Inf – Inf <.001 .651 -Inf – Inf <.001 .690 -Inf – Inf <.001
Observations 1103 1148 1236 1206
R2 Tjur .083 .077 .079 .086
Figure 92: Nationalism

4.7 Voting & Party Identity

Figure 93: Nationalism
Figure 94: Nationalism
Figure 95: Ethnic_Nationalism
Table 41: Nationalism and Party Identity & Voting
Donald Trump Hilary Clinton
Strong Republican 282 7
Republican 166 24
Leaning Republican 58 7
Independent 17 16
Leaning Democrat 10 65
Democrat 27 129
Strong Democrat 4 323
Table 42: Nationalism and Party Identity
Donald Trump Hilary Clinton
Strong Republican 282 7
Republican 166 24
Leaning Republican 58 7
Independent 17 16
Leaning Democrat 10 65
Democrat 27 129
Strong Democrat 4 323
Table 43: Ethnic_Nationalism and Party Identity
Donald Trump Hilary Clinton
Strong Republican 282 7
Republican 166 24
Leaning Republican 58 7
Independent 17 16
Leaning Democrat 10 65
Democrat 27 129
Strong Democrat 4 323
Table 44
  2016 [Clinton vs. Trump] 2016 [Trump vs. Clinton] + Supporters
Predictors Odds Ratios CI p Odds Ratios CI p
(Intercept) 8.60 4.99 – 15.45 <.001 8.24 4.93 – 14.26 <.001
Party Identity (dichotomous) 0.01 0.00 – 0.01 <.001
Party Identity (dichotomous) 1.15 1.00 – 1.32 .047 1.11 0.98 – 1.26 .116
Nationalism 0.01 0.00 – 0.01 <.001
Observations 1103 1148
R2 Tjur .747 .720
Figure 96: Nationalism
Figure 97: Nationalism
Figure 98: Ethnic_Nationalism
  2016 [Clinton vs. Trump] 2016 [Trump vs. Clinton] + Supporters
Predictors Odds Ratios CI p Odds Ratios CI p
(Intercept) 12.78 7.54 – 22.71 <.001 11.26 6.88 – 19.18 <.001
Scr_PIDFRepublican 0.01 0.00 – 0.01 <.001
construct 1.03 0.91 – 1.16 .682 1.01 0.91 – 1.13 .812
PIDFRepublican 0.01 0.00 – 0.01 <.001
Observations 1103 1148
R2 Tjur .747 .720
  2016 [Clinton vs. Trump] 2016 [Trump vs. Clinton] + Supporters
Predictors Odds Ratios CI p Odds Ratios CI p
(Intercept) 6.74 4.09 – 11.48 <.001 6.69 4.17 – 11.08 <.001
Scr_PIDFRepublican 0.01 0.00 – 0.01 <.001
construct 1.25 1.10 – 1.43 .001 1.19 1.05 – 1.34 .007
PIDFRepublican 0.01 0.00 – 0.01 <.001
Observations 1103 1148
R2 Tjur .749 .722

4.8 Likeability

Figure 99: Nationalism
Figure 100: Nationalism
Figure 101: Ethnic_Nationalism
Figure 102: Nationalism
Figure 103: Nationalism
Figure 104: Ethnic_Nationalism

Note. The y-axis shows residuals after regressing the outcome on demographics (Age, Income, Education, Gender). This illustrates how much the focal construct explains beyond demographic factors.

Figure 105: Nationalism
Figure 106: Nationalism
Figure 107: Ethnic_Nationalism
Figure 108: Nationalism
Figure 109: Nationalism
Figure 110: Ethnic_Nationalism

Note. The y-axis shows residuals after regressing the outcome on demographics (Age, Income, Education, Gender). This illustrates how much the focal construct explains beyond demographic factors.

Figure 111: Nationalism
Figure 112: Nationalism
Figure 113: Ethnic_Nationalism
Figure 114: Nationalism
Figure 115: Nationalism
Figure 116: Ethnic_Nationalism

Note. The y-axis shows residuals after regressing the outcome on demographics (Age, Income, Education, Gender). This illustrates how much the focal construct explains beyond demographic factors.

5 Politico-Psychological correlates of Nationalism


5.1 Ideologies and Partisanship

Figure 117: Nationalism (by magnitude)
Figure 118: Nationalism
Figure 119: Ethnic_Nationalism
Figure 120: Nationalism (alphabetic)
Figure 121: Nationalism
Figure 122: Ethnic_Nationalism

5.2 Populism, Nationalism, Nativism, and Patriotism

Figure 123: Nationalism (by magnitude)
Figure 124: Nationalism
Figure 125: Ethnic_Nationalism
Figure 126: Nationalism (alphabetic)
Figure 127: Nationalism
Figure 128: Ethnic_Nationalism



5.3 Political Psychology

Figure 129: Nationalism (by magnitude)
Figure 130: Nationalism
Figure 131: Ethnic_Nationalism
Figure 132: Nationalism (alphabetic)
Figure 133: Nationalism
Figure 134: Ethnic_Nationalism

5.4 Social Justice Concerns, Empathy, and Prejudice

Figure 135: Nationalism (by magnitude)
Figure 136: Nationalism
Figure 137: Ethnic_Nationalism
Figure 138: Nationalism (alphabetic)
Figure 139: Nationalism
Figure 140: Ethnic_Nationalism



5.5 Values

Figure 141: Nationalism (by magnitude)
Figure 142: Nationalism
Figure 143: Ethnic_Nationalism
Figure 144: Nationalism (alphabetic)
Figure 145: Nationalism
Figure 146: Ethnic_Nationalism



5.6 Pot-Pourri

Figure 147: Nationalism (by magnitude)
Figure 148: Nationalism
Figure 149: Ethnic_Nationalism
Figure 150: Nationalism (alphabetic)
Figure 151: Nationalism
Figure 152: Ethnic_Nationalism



5.7 Positive and Negative correlates of Nationalism

Figure 153: Nationalism (by magnitude)
Figure 154: Nationalism
Figure 155: Ethnic_Nationalism
Figure 156: Nationalism (alphabetic)
Figure 157: Nationalism
Figure 158: Ethnic_Nationalism
Figure 159: Nationalism (by magnitude)
Figure 160: Nationalism
Figure 161: Ethnic_Nationalism
Figure 162: Nationalism (alphabetic)
Figure 163: Nationalism
Figure 164: Ethnic_Nationalism

6 Elastic Net Analysis

Figure 165: Elastic net predicting Nationalism: Political Psychology
Figure 166: Elastic net predicting Nationalism: Ideology & Partisanship
Figure 167: Elastic net predicting Nationalism: Demographics
Figure 168: Elastic net predicting Nationalism: Attitudes
Figure 169: Elastic net predicting Nationalism: Everything
Table 45: Elastic Net Summary
Elastic Net R² for predicting Nationalism
Variable Group # Predictors R²
Political Psychology 5 .357
Ideology & Partisanship 5 .118
Demographics 5 .104
Attitudes 6 .137
Everything 21 .398