PPBS

Populism [2016]

A Politico-Psychological Analysis

Report generated

March 23, 2026

1 Study Characteristics

1.1 Items: Populism

1.2 Sample

N=1500

To conduct a exploratory and a confirmatory large surveys during the general election, we hired a professional survey firm (SSI, a US-based market research company that recruits participants from a panel of 7,139,027 American citizens; more information can be found at www.surveysampling.com (now https://www.dynata.com/) to recruit a nationally representative sample of 1,500 Americans (50.7% women) who completed study materials during the general election from August 16-September 9, 2016. (Information about sampling and exclusion criteria is included in the Supplement). The age distribution was as follows: 18-24 (12.9%), 25-34 (17.6%), 35-44 (17.5%), 45-54 (19.5%), 55-65 (15.6%) and older than 65 (16.9%). The ethnic breakdown was: White/European American (82.5%), Black/African American (7.7%), Latino (5.9%) and “Other” (4.0%). Concerning religion, 67.6% identified as Christian, 17.1% as religiously affiliated but not Christian, and 15.3% as Atheist/Agnostic. With respect to education 35.1% indicated “high school only or lower,” 31.4 % indicated “some college,” and 33.6% indicated having received a “Bachelor” or “Graduate” degree. 2424 participants were directed to the survey, 1885 of which finished the survey (attrition rate 22%).

We followed recommendations to minimize the problem of careless responding in online studies. Specifically, we employed 10 random attention questions and time controls to check for data quality. There were 385 participants who failed more than one attention check or finished the survey in under ~22 minutes and were therefore excluded from the sample. For the 1500 participants who successfully finished the survey, completion time was 67 minutes on average (MD: 51min).

2 Descriptives

2.1 Means, SD, Range, & SE

Table 1: Descriptives
Descriptives for Populism
mean sd median min max range se
Sovereignty_of_the_People_mean 6.53 1.50 6.33 1.00 9.00 8.00 0.04
Anti_Pluralism_mean 3.77 1.18 3.75 1.00 8.50 7.50 0.03
Anti_Elitism_mean 6.82 1.39 7.00 1.00 9.00 8.00 0.04
Representative_Gap_mean 6.86 1.65 7.00 1.00 9.00 8.00 0.04
Mistrust_of_Experts_mean 4.85 1.39 5.00 1.00 9.00 8.00 0.04
Manichean_Outlook_mean 6.58 1.63 6.50 1.00 9.00 8.00 0.04
Protectionism_mean 5.76 1.72 5.80 1.00 9.00 8.00 0.04
Left_Populism_mean 4.65 1.86 4.50 1.00 9.00 8.00 0.05
Populism 5.67 0.90 5.63 2.81 8.26 5.44 0.02
Note:
n = 1500
Table 2: Descriptives – Item Level
Descriptives for Populism at Item Level
mean sd median se
Sovereignty_of_the_People1 7.53 1.69 8.00 0.04
Sovereignty_of_the_People2 5.59 2.22 5.00 0.06
Sovereignty_of_the_People3 6.49 1.92 6.00 0.05
Anti_Pluralism1 3.01 1.69 3.00 0.04
Anti_Pluralism2 2.46 1.60 2.00 0.04
Anti_Pluralism3 3.37 1.90 3.00 0.05
Anti_Pluralism4 6.22 2.18 6.00 0.06
Anti_Elitism1 6.37 1.79 6.00 0.05
Anti_Elitism2 7.22 1.94 8.00 0.05
Anti_Elitism3 7.61 1.70 8.00 0.04
Anti_Elitism4 6.07 2.25 6.00 0.06
Representative_Gap1 6.95 1.93 7.00 0.05
Representative_Gap2 7.46 1.74 8.00 0.04
Representative_Gap3 6.16 2.14 6.00 0.06
Mistrust_of_Experts1 6.89 1.99 7.00 0.05
Mistrust_of_Experts2 4.10 2.35 4.00 0.06
Mistrust_of_Experts3 4.99 2.26 5.00 0.06
Mistrust_of_Experts4 3.41 1.81 3.00 0.05
Manichean_Outlook1 6.80 1.86 7.00 0.05
Manichean_Outlook2 6.36 2.18 6.00 0.06
Protectionism1 6.38 1.88 6.00 0.05
Protectionism2 5.21 2.59 5.00 0.07
Protectionism3 6.40 2.19 6.00 0.06
Protectionism4 5.02 2.55 5.00 0.07
Protectionism5 5.81 2.60 6.00 0.07
Left_Populism1 3.60 2.20 3.00 0.06
Left_Populism2 5.70 2.28 5.00 0.06
Populism 5.67 0.90 5.63 0.02
Sovereignty_of_the_People_mean 6.53 1.50 6.33 0.04
Anti_Pluralism_mean 3.77 1.18 3.75 0.03
Anti_Elitism_mean 6.82 1.39 7.00 0.04
Representative_Gap_mean 6.86 1.65 7.00 0.04
Mistrust_of_Experts_mean 4.85 1.39 5.00 0.04
Manichean_Outlook_mean 6.58 1.63 6.50 0.04
Protectionism_mean 5.76 1.72 5.80 0.04
Left_Populism_mean 4.65 1.86 4.50 0.05
Note:
All items: n = 1500, min = 1, max = 9. Populism: min = 2.81, max = 8.26. Sovereignty_of_the_People_mean: min = 1, max = 9. Anti_Pluralism_mean: min = 1, max = 8.5. Anti_Elitism_mean: min = 1, max = 9. Representative_Gap_mean: min = 1, max = 9. Mistrust_of_Experts_mean: min = 1, max = 9. Manichean_Outlook_mean: min = 1, max = 9. Protectionism_mean: min = 1, max = 9. Left_Populism_mean: min = 1, max = 9

2.2 Response Distribution

Figure 1: Proportion of each facet of Populism at item level: Sovereignty_of_the_People
Figure 2: Proportion of each facet of Populism at item level: Anti_Pluralism
Figure 3: Proportion of each facet of Populism at item level: Anti_Elitism
Figure 4: Proportion of each facet of Populism at item level: Representative_Gap
Figure 5: Proportion of each facet of Populism at item level: Mistrust_of_Experts
Figure 6: Proportion of each facet of Populism at item level: Manichean_Outlook
Figure 7: Proportion of each facet of Populism at item level: Protectionism
Figure 8: Proportion of each facet of Populism at item level: Left_Populism
Figure 9: Sovereignty_of_the_People
Figure 10: Anti_Pluralism
Figure 11: Anti_Elitism
Figure 12: Representative_Gap
Figure 13: Mistrust_of_Experts
Figure 14: Manichean_Outlook
Figure 15: Protectionism
Figure 16: Left_Populism

2.3 Correlations

2.3.1 Correlation Plots

Figure 17: Bivariate Spearman correlations: Populism
Figure 18: Bivariate Spearman correlations: Sovereignty_of_the_People
Figure 19: Bivariate Spearman correlations: Anti_Pluralism
Figure 20: Bivariate Spearman correlations: Anti_Elitism
Figure 21: Bivariate Spearman correlations: Representative_Gap
Figure 22: Bivariate Spearman correlations: Mistrust_of_Experts
Figure 23: Bivariate Spearman correlations: Manichean_Outlook
Figure 24: Bivariate Spearman correlations: Protectionism
Figure 25: Bivariate Spearman correlations: Left_Populism

Note. Upper triangle shows Spearman’s rank-order correlations. *** p < .001, ** p < .01, * p < .05.

2.3.2 PIDF

Figure 26: Bivariate Spearman correlations by party identity: Populism
Figure 27: Bivariate Spearman correlations by party identity: Sovereignty_of_the_People
Figure 28: Bivariate Spearman correlations by party identity: Anti_Pluralism
Figure 29: Bivariate Spearman correlations by party identity: Anti_Elitism
Figure 30: Bivariate Spearman correlations by party identity: Representative_Gap
Figure 31: Bivariate Spearman correlations by party identity: Mistrust_of_Experts
Figure 32: Bivariate Spearman correlations by party identity: Manichean_Outlook
Figure 33: Bivariate Spearman correlations by party identity: Protectionism
Figure 34: Bivariate Spearman correlations by party identity: Left_Populism

Note. Upper triangle shows Spearman’s rank-order correlations by party identity. *** p < .001, ** p < .01, * p < .05.

2.3.3 Correlation Matrix

3 Demographics

3.1 Social Class

Figure 35: Populism
Figure 36: Sovereignty_of_the_People
Figure 37: Anti_Pluralism
Figure 38: Anti_Elitism
Figure 39: Representative_Gap
Figure 40: Mistrust_of_Experts
Figure 41: Manichean_Outlook
Figure 42: Protectionism
Figure 43: Left_Populism
Figure 44: Populism
Figure 45: Sovereignty_of_the_People
Figure 46: Anti_Pluralism
Figure 47: Anti_Elitism
Figure 48: Representative_Gap
Figure 49: Mistrust_of_Experts
Figure 50: Manichean_Outlook
Figure 51: Protectionism
Figure 52: Left_Populism

Note on the Raincloud Plots

  • Statistical summary (top): Welch’s t-test (or ANOVA) results, effect size, confidence intervals, p-values, and sample sizes are shown above each plot.
  • Bayesian analysis (bottom): Log Bayes factor and credible intervals are reported below each plot.
Table 3
Table 4: Left_Populism as grouped by SES
(a)
SES N Mean SD
Poor 38 -0.02 1.01
Lower Middle Class 298 -0.03 0.98
Middle Middle Class 679 0.12 0.94
Upper Middle Class 395 -0.14 1.07
Rich 90 -0.18 1.09
(b)
SES N Mean SD
Poor 38 -0.11 1.03
Lower Middle Class 298 -0.09 0.95
Middle Middle Class 679 0.04 0.99
Upper Middle Class 395 -0.01 1.04
Rich 90 0.05 1.03
(c)
SES N Mean SD
Poor 38 0.02 1.14
Lower Middle Class 298 0.11 0.99
Middle Middle Class 679 0.04 0.97
Upper Middle Class 395 -0.11 1.01
Rich 90 -0.19 1.07
(d)
SES N Mean SD
Poor 38 -0.11 1.07
Lower Middle Class 298 -0.06 1.04
Middle Middle Class 679 0.06 1.02
Upper Middle Class 395 -0.05 0.94
Rich 90 0.03 0.94
(e)
SES N Mean SD
Poor 38 0.24 1.03
Lower Middle Class 298 0.03 1.02
Middle Middle Class 679 0.12 0.99
Upper Middle Class 395 -0.20 0.97
Rich 90 -0.29 0.95
(f)
SES N Mean SD
Poor 38 0.17 1.04
Lower Middle Class 298 0.08 1.05
Middle Middle Class 679 0.10 0.95
Upper Middle Class 395 -0.15 1.00
Rich 90 -0.39 1.00
(g)
SES N Mean SD
Poor 38 0.05 1.02
Lower Middle Class 298 0.08 0.98
Middle Middle Class 679 0.11 0.99
Upper Middle Class 395 -0.18 1.00
Rich 90 -0.36 0.97
(h)
SES N Mean SD
Poor 38 -0.07 0.96
Lower Middle Class 298 -0.04 0.99
Middle Middle Class 679 0.13 1.00
Upper Middle Class 395 -0.13 1.00
Rich 90 -0.20 0.97
(i)
SES N Mean SD
Poor 38 -0.29 0.83
Lower Middle Class 298 -0.24 0.88
Middle Middle Class 679 -0.10 0.96
Upper Middle Class 395 0.23 1.07
Rich 90 0.68 0.99

3.2 Gender

Figure 53: Populism Facets, as grouped by Gender: Populism
Figure 54: Populism Facets, as grouped by Gender: Sovereignty_of_the_People
Figure 55: Populism Facets, as grouped by Gender: Anti_Pluralism
Figure 56: Populism Facets, as grouped by Gender: Anti_Elitism
Figure 57: Populism Facets, as grouped by Gender: Representative_Gap
Figure 58: Populism Facets, as grouped by Gender: Mistrust_of_Experts
Figure 59: Populism Facets, as grouped by Gender: Manichean_Outlook
Figure 60: Populism Facets, as grouped by Gender: Protectionism
Figure 61: Populism Facets, as grouped by Gender: Left_Populism
Figure 62: Populism
Figure 63: Sovereignty_of_the_People
Figure 64: Anti_Pluralism
Figure 65: Anti_Elitism
Figure 66: Representative_Gap
Figure 67: Mistrust_of_Experts
Figure 68: Manichean_Outlook
Figure 69: Protectionism
Figure 70: Left_Populism
Table 5
Table 6: Left_Populism as grouped by Gender
(a)
Gender N Mean SD
Female 760 -0.12 0.94
Male 740 0.12 1.05
(b)
Gender N Mean SD
Female 760 -0.12 0.95
Male 740 0.12 1.04
(c)
Gender N Mean SD
Female 760 -0.03 0.97
Male 740 0.03 1.03
(d)
Gender N Mean SD
Female 760 -0.1 1.00
Male 740 0.1 0.99
(e)
Gender N Mean SD
Female 760 -0.01 0.98
Male 740 0.01 1.02
(f)
Gender N Mean SD
Female 760 -0.03 0.98
Male 740 0.03 1.02
(g)
Gender N Mean SD
Female 760 -0.03 0.95
Male 740 0.03 1.05
(h)
Gender N Mean SD
Female 760 -0.09 1.01
Male 740 0.09 0.98
(i)
Gender N Mean SD
Female 760 -0.19 0.87
Male 740 0.19 1.08

3.3 Age

Figure 71: Populism
Figure 72: Sovereignty_of_the_People
Figure 73: Anti_Pluralism
Figure 74: Anti_Elitism
Figure 75: Representative_Gap
Figure 76: Mistrust_of_Experts
Figure 77: Manichean_Outlook
Figure 78: Protectionism
Figure 79: Left_Populism
Figure 80: Populism
Figure 81: Sovereignty_of_the_People
Figure 82: Anti_Pluralism
Figure 83: Anti_Elitism
Figure 84: Representative_Gap
Figure 85: Mistrust_of_Experts
Figure 86: Manichean_Outlook
Figure 87: Protectionism
Figure 88: Left_Populism
Table 7
Table 8: Left_Populism as grouped by Age
(a)
Age N Mean SD
18-24 years 193 -0.26 0.86
25-34 years 264 -0.34 0.86
35-44 years 263 -0.05 0.99
45-54 years 292 0.14 0.99
55-64 years 234 0.00 1.05
65+ 254 0.44 1.03
(b)
Age N Mean SD
18-24 years 193 -0.20 0.94
25-34 years 264 -0.31 0.90
35-44 years 263 -0.10 1.05
45-54 years 292 0.15 1.00
55-64 years 234 0.10 1.01
65+ 254 0.30 0.96
(c)
Age N Mean SD
18-24 years 193 0.18 1.04
25-34 years 264 0.11 0.99
35-44 years 263 0.01 1.04
45-54 years 292 -0.07 0.91
55-64 years 234 -0.13 1.00
65+ 254 -0.06 1.02
(d)
Age N Mean SD
18-24 years 193 -0.28 0.98
25-34 years 264 -0.24 0.97
35-44 years 263 0.01 1.00
45-54 years 292 0.14 0.99
55-64 years 234 -0.02 1.06
65+ 254 0.31 0.89
(e)
Age N Mean SD
18-24 years 193 -0.20 0.96
25-34 years 264 -0.10 1.00
35-44 years 263 0.09 1.00
45-54 years 292 0.13 0.99
55-64 years 234 -0.14 1.09
65+ 254 0.15 0.91
(f)
Age N Mean SD
18-24 years 193 0.01 0.97
25-34 years 264 -0.19 0.94
35-44 years 263 -0.07 1.04
45-54 years 292 0.09 1.01
55-64 years 234 -0.07 0.99
65+ 254 0.22 1.00
(g)
Age N Mean SD
18-24 years 193 -0.14 0.91
25-34 years 264 -0.13 0.96
35-44 years 263 -0.03 0.99
45-54 years 292 0.05 1.03
55-64 years 234 0.05 1.05
65+ 254 0.18 1.01
(h)
Age N Mean SD
18-24 years 193 -0.30 0.91
25-34 years 264 -0.37 1.01
35-44 years 263 -0.07 0.99
45-54 years 292 0.17 0.98
55-64 years 234 0.11 0.99
65+ 254 0.39 0.89
(i)
Age N Mean SD
18-24 years 193 -0.20 0.86
25-34 years 264 -0.26 0.80
35-44 years 263 -0.05 1.02
45-54 years 292 -0.12 1.00
55-64 years 234 0.09 1.04
65+ 254 0.53 1.03

3.4 Education

Figure 89: Populism
Figure 90: Sovereignty_of_the_People
Figure 91: Anti_Pluralism
Figure 92: Anti_Elitism
Figure 93: Representative_Gap
Figure 94: Mistrust_of_Experts
Figure 95: Manichean_Outlook
Figure 96: Protectionism
Figure 97: Left_Populism
Figure 98: Populism
Figure 99: Sovereignty_of_the_People
Figure 100: Anti_Pluralism
Figure 101: Anti_Elitism
Figure 102: Representative_Gap
Figure 103: Mistrust_of_Experts
Figure 104: Manichean_Outlook
Figure 105: Protectionism
Figure 106: Left_Populism
Table 9
Table 10: Left_Populism as grouped by Education
(a)
Education N Mean SD
Less than High School 51 0.04 0.92
High School 475 0.14 0.94
Some College 471 0.07 0.97
Bachelor 310 -0.15 1.04
Graduate 193 -0.29 1.08
(b)
Education N Mean SD
Less than High School 51 -0.15 0.94
High School 475 0.00 0.96
Some College 471 0.09 1.01
Bachelor 310 -0.06 1.03
Graduate 193 -0.08 1.04
(c)
Education N Mean SD
Less than High School 51 0.22 1.16
High School 475 0.14 1.00
Some College 471 -0.04 0.94
Bachelor 310 -0.11 1.04
Graduate 193 -0.13 1.00
(d)
Education N Mean SD
Less than High School 51 -0.15 1.07
High School 475 0.01 1.03
Some College 471 0.08 1.02
Bachelor 310 -0.07 0.93
Graduate 193 -0.05 0.95
(e)
Education N Mean SD
Less than High School 51 0.03 0.98
High School 475 0.13 1.00
Some College 471 0.08 1.02
Bachelor 310 -0.13 0.95
Graduate 193 -0.31 0.95
(f)
Education N Mean SD
Less than High School 51 0.06 1.15
High School 475 0.22 0.97
Some College 471 0.04 0.97
Bachelor 310 -0.16 0.96
Graduate 193 -0.39 1.01
(g)
Education N Mean SD
Less than High School 51 0.14 0.89
High School 475 0.12 1.01
Some College 471 0.11 0.98
Bachelor 310 -0.17 1.00
Graduate 193 -0.33 0.94
(h)
Education N Mean SD
Less than High School 51 0.08 0.90
High School 475 0.14 0.99
Some College 471 0.06 1.00
Bachelor 310 -0.14 0.99
Graduate 193 -0.30 1.01
(i)
Education N Mean SD
Less than High School 51 -0.07 0.97
High School 475 -0.20 0.91
Some College 471 -0.12 0.96
Bachelor 310 0.25 1.05
Graduate 193 0.42 1.04

3.5 Income Levels

Figure 107: Populism
Figure 108: Sovereignty_of_the_People
Figure 109: Anti_Pluralism
Figure 110: Anti_Elitism
Figure 111: Representative_Gap
Figure 112: Mistrust_of_Experts
Figure 113: Manichean_Outlook
Figure 114: Protectionism
Figure 115: Left_Populism
Figure 116: Populism
Figure 117: Sovereignty_of_the_People
Figure 118: Anti_Pluralism
Figure 119: Anti_Elitism
Figure 120: Representative_Gap
Figure 121: Mistrust_of_Experts
Figure 122: Manichean_Outlook
Figure 123: Protectionism
Figure 124: Left_Populism
Table 11
Table 12: Left_Populism as grouped by Income Levels
(a)
Income Levels N Mean SD
Less than $15,000 178 -0.14 0.97
$15,000-$24,999 180 0.17 0.95
$25,000-$34,999 176 0.15 0.97
$35,000-$49,999 227 -0.08 0.97
$50,000-$74,999 292 0.01 0.98
$75,000-$99,999 192 -0.14 0.97
$100,000-$149,999 160 0.07 1.13
$150,000 + 95 -0.03 1.09
(b)
Income Levels N Mean SD
Less than $15,000 178 -0.21 0.92
$15,000-$24,999 180 0.06 0.97
$25,000-$34,999 176 0.14 0.94
$35,000-$49,999 227 -0.16 1.04
$50,000-$74,999 292 0.00 0.99
$75,000-$99,999 192 0.01 1.06
$100,000-$149,999 160 0.15 1.02
$150,000 + 95 0.15 0.98
(c)
Income Levels N Mean SD
Less than $15,000 178 0.09 1.07
$15,000-$24,999 180 0.04 0.96
$25,000-$34,999 176 0.00 1.01
$35,000-$49,999 227 0.08 0.99
$50,000-$74,999 292 -0.01 0.95
$75,000-$99,999 192 -0.05 0.97
$100,000-$149,999 160 -0.08 1.03
$150,000 + 95 -0.19 1.09
(d)
Income Levels N Mean SD
Less than $15,000 178 -0.13 0.98
$15,000-$24,999 180 0.11 1.06
$25,000-$34,999 176 0.11 0.90
$35,000-$49,999 227 -0.08 1.09
$50,000-$74,999 292 -0.01 1.02
$75,000-$99,999 192 -0.08 0.94
$100,000-$149,999 160 0.11 1.00
$150,000 + 95 0.05 0.87
(e)
Income Levels N Mean SD
Less than $15,000 178 0.02 1.03
$15,000-$24,999 180 0.21 0.95
$25,000-$34,999 176 0.12 0.92
$35,000-$49,999 227 0.01 1.04
$50,000-$74,999 292 0.02 1.00
$75,000-$99,999 192 -0.18 0.99
$100,000-$149,999 160 -0.13 1.05
$150,000 + 95 -0.16 0.95
(f)
Income Levels N Mean SD
Less than $15,000 178 0.02 1.02
$15,000-$24,999 180 0.16 0.99
$25,000-$34,999 176 0.15 1.04
$35,000-$49,999 227 -0.04 1.03
$50,000-$74,999 292 -0.01 0.95
$75,000-$99,999 192 -0.11 0.88
$100,000-$149,999 160 -0.05 1.08
$150,000 + 95 -0.20 1.01
(g)
Income Levels N Mean SD
Less than $15,000 178 -0.05 0.99
$15,000-$24,999 180 0.22 1.03
$25,000-$34,999 176 0.22 0.97
$35,000-$49,999 227 -0.05 1.01
$50,000-$74,999 292 0.01 0.94
$75,000-$99,999 192 -0.15 0.97
$100,000-$149,999 160 -0.03 1.05
$150,000 + 95 -0.30 1.00
(h)
Income Levels N Mean SD
Less than $15,000 178 -0.15 0.96
$15,000-$24,999 180 0.15 1.05
$25,000-$34,999 176 0.09 1.03
$35,000-$49,999 227 -0.07 1.00
$50,000-$74,999 292 0.02 0.99
$75,000-$99,999 192 -0.07 0.94
$100,000-$149,999 160 0.06 1.03
$150,000 + 95 -0.03 1.00
(i)
Income Levels N Mean SD
Less than $15,000 178 -0.24 0.90
$15,000-$24,999 180 -0.21 0.88
$25,000-$34,999 176 -0.13 1.00
$35,000-$49,999 227 -0.04 0.90
$50,000-$74,999 292 0.01 0.98
$75,000-$99,999 192 -0.01 1.04
$100,000-$149,999 160 0.32 1.04
$150,000 + 95 0.63 1.17

3.6 Ethnicity

Figure 125: Populism
Figure 126: Sovereignty_of_the_People
Figure 127: Anti_Pluralism
Figure 128: Anti_Elitism
Figure 129: Representative_Gap
Figure 130: Mistrust_of_Experts
Figure 131: Manichean_Outlook
Figure 132: Protectionism
Figure 133: Left_Populism

Note on the Okabe-Ito color palette. The Okabe-Ito color palette (seen above) is a set of colorblind-friendly categorical colors available in R. We are using this palette for graphs with non-ordered variables (e.g., groups, categories) for accessibility.

Figure 134: Populism
Figure 135: Sovereignty_of_the_People
Figure 136: Anti_Pluralism
Figure 137: Anti_Elitism
Figure 138: Representative_Gap
Figure 139: Mistrust_of_Experts
Figure 140: Manichean_Outlook
Figure 141: Protectionism
Figure 142: Left_Populism
Table 13
Table 14: Left_Populism as grouped by Ethnicity
(a)
Ethnicity N Mean SD
Caucasian/European origin 1237 0.06 1.02
Black/African American 115 -0.23 0.82
Latino 88 -0.32 0.84
Asian/Pacific Islander 29 -0.53 0.84
Native American 13 0.11 0.99
Other 18 -0.17 0.77
(b)
Ethnicity N Mean SD
Caucasian/European origin 1237 0.05 1.00
Black/African American 115 -0.17 0.94
Latino 88 -0.33 0.99
Asian/Pacific Islander 29 -0.34 0.90
Native American 13 0.17 1.06
Other 18 -0.28 0.92
(c)
Ethnicity N Mean SD
Caucasian/European origin 1237 -0.01 0.99
Black/African American 115 -0.11 0.97
Latino 88 0.30 1.20
Asian/Pacific Islander 29 -0.10 1.02
Native American 13 -0.18 0.97
Other 18 0.03 0.98
(d)
Ethnicity N Mean SD
Caucasian/European origin 1237 0.02 1.00
Black/African American 115 -0.07 0.94
Latino 88 -0.15 1.04
Asian/Pacific Islander 29 -0.46 0.97
Native American 13 0.21 1.04
Other 18 0.09 0.81
(e)
Ethnicity N Mean SD
Caucasian/European origin 1237 0.02 0.99
Black/African American 115 -0.02 1.03
Latino 88 -0.25 0.98
Asian/Pacific Islander 29 -0.37 1.04
Native American 13 0.15 1.21
Other 18 0.22 0.84
(f)
Ethnicity N Mean SD
Caucasian/European origin 1237 0.01 1.00
Black/African American 115 0.00 1.07
Latino 88 -0.09 0.96
Asian/Pacific Islander 29 -0.26 0.99
Native American 13 0.29 0.96
Other 18 -0.03 0.94
(g)
Ethnicity N Mean SD
Caucasian/European origin 1237 0.00 1.01
Black/African American 115 0.18 0.97
Latino 88 -0.16 0.93
Asian/Pacific Islander 29 -0.13 0.79
Native American 13 0.35 1.03
Other 18 -0.37 1.08
(h)
Ethnicity N Mean SD
Caucasian/European origin 1237 0.08 1.01
Black/African American 115 -0.29 0.92
Latino 88 -0.47 0.84
Asian/Pacific Islander 29 -0.41 0.78
Native American 13 -0.07 1.12
Other 18 -0.30 0.88
(i)
Ethnicity N Mean SD
Caucasian/European origin 1237 0.07 1.00
Black/African American 115 -0.49 0.86
Latino 88 -0.18 0.96
Asian/Pacific Islander 29 -0.28 0.80
Native American 13 -0.39 1.06
Other 18 -0.17 1.22

3.7 Occupation

Figure 143: Populism
Figure 144: Sovereignty_of_the_People
Figure 145: Anti_Pluralism
Figure 146: Anti_Elitism
Figure 147: Representative_Gap
Figure 148: Mistrust_of_Experts
Figure 149: Manichean_Outlook
Figure 150: Protectionism
Figure 151: Left_Populism
Figure 152: Populism
Figure 153: Sovereignty_of_the_People
Figure 154: Anti_Pluralism
Figure 155: Anti_Elitism
Figure 156: Representative_Gap
Figure 157: Mistrust_of_Experts
Figure 158: Manichean_Outlook
Figure 159: Protectionism
Figure 160: Left_Populism
Table 15
Table 16: Left_Populism as grouped by Occupation
(a)
Occupation N Mean SD
Employed 768 -0.08 0.99
Retired 268 0.30 1.03
Unemployed 146 -0.15 0.95
Parent 104 0.07 0.87
Disabled 98 0.30 1.02
Student 85 -0.41 0.88
Full-time caregiver 31 0.11 0.99
(b)
Occupation N Mean SD
Employed 768 -0.04 1.02
Retired 268 0.26 0.98
Unemployed 146 -0.17 0.94
Parent 104 -0.10 0.95
Disabled 98 0.29 1.00
Student 85 -0.31 0.81
Full-time caregiver 31 -0.08 1.00
(c)
Occupation N Mean SD
Employed 768 0.00 1.00
Retired 268 -0.12 1.05
Unemployed 146 0.12 0.98
Parent 104 0.07 0.93
Disabled 98 -0.04 0.95
Student 85 0.06 1.09
Full-time caregiver 31 0.14 0.88
(d)
Occupation N Mean SD
Employed 768 -0.04 1.00
Retired 268 0.20 0.94
Unemployed 146 -0.11 1.00
Parent 104 -0.01 1.04
Disabled 98 0.26 1.06
Student 85 -0.38 0.91
Full-time caregiver 31 0.03 0.91
(e)
Occupation N Mean SD
Employed 768 -0.06 1.00
Retired 268 0.06 1.00
Unemployed 146 0.06 1.03
Parent 104 -0.01 0.99
Disabled 98 0.32 1.05
Student 85 -0.15 0.89
Full-time caregiver 31 0.14 0.82
(f)
Occupation N Mean SD
Employed 768 -0.07 0.99
Retired 268 0.13 1.01
Unemployed 146 -0.05 0.98
Parent 104 0.16 1.00
Disabled 98 0.13 1.00
Student 85 -0.11 1.04
Full-time caregiver 31 0.10 0.99
(g)
Occupation N Mean SD
Employed 768 -0.08 1.00
Retired 268 0.14 1.05
Unemployed 146 -0.02 0.98
Parent 104 0.11 0.91
Disabled 98 0.26 1.05
Student 85 -0.15 0.78
Full-time caregiver 31 0.07 1.06
(h)
Occupation N Mean SD
Employed 768 -0.09 0.99
Retired 268 0.34 0.91
Unemployed 146 -0.19 1.07
Parent 104 0.10 0.95
Disabled 98 0.25 1.03
Student 85 -0.42 0.97
Full-time caregiver 31 0.18 0.94
(i)
Occupation N Mean SD
Employed 768 0.03 1.01
Retired 268 0.33 1.04
Unemployed 146 -0.34 0.91
Parent 104 -0.07 0.91
Disabled 98 -0.19 0.98
Student 85 -0.30 0.81
Full-time caregiver 31 -0.25 0.70

3.8 Area

Figure 161: Populism
Figure 162: Sovereignty_of_the_People
Figure 163: Anti_Pluralism
Figure 164: Anti_Elitism
Figure 165: Representative_Gap
Figure 166: Mistrust_of_Experts
Figure 167: Manichean_Outlook
Figure 168: Protectionism
Figure 169: Left_Populism
Figure 170: Populism
Figure 171: Sovereignty_of_the_People
Figure 172: Anti_Pluralism
Figure 173: Anti_Elitism
Figure 174: Representative_Gap
Figure 175: Mistrust_of_Experts
Figure 176: Manichean_Outlook
Figure 177: Protectionism
Figure 178: Left_Populism
Table 17
Table 18: Left_Populism as grouped by Area
(a)
Area N Mean SD
Urban 955 -0.13 1.00
Rural 545 0.23 0.96
(b)
Area N Mean SD
Urban 955 -0.07 1.01
Rural 545 0.13 0.97
(c)
Area N Mean SD
Urban 955 -0.04 1.03
Rural 545 0.07 0.94
(d)
Area N Mean SD
Urban 955 -0.07 1.00
Rural 545 0.12 0.99
(e)
Area N Mean SD
Urban 955 -0.09 1.02
Rural 545 0.15 0.95
(f)
Area N Mean SD
Urban 955 -0.08 1.00
Rural 545 0.15 0.98
(g)
Area N Mean SD
Urban 955 -0.07 1.02
Rural 545 0.12 0.95
(h)
Area N Mean SD
Urban 955 -0.11 1.01
Rural 545 0.20 0.94
(i)
Area N Mean SD
Urban 955 -0.04 0.99
Rural 545 0.08 1.02

3.9 Religious Affiliation

Figure 179: Populism
Figure 180: Sovereignty_of_the_People
Figure 181: Anti_Pluralism
Figure 182: Anti_Elitism
Figure 183: Representative_Gap
Figure 184: Mistrust_of_Experts
Figure 185: Manichean_Outlook
Figure 186: Protectionism
Figure 187: Left_Populism
Figure 188: Populism
Figure 189: Sovereignty_of_the_People
Figure 190: Anti_Pluralism
Figure 191: Anti_Elitism
Figure 192: Representative_Gap
Figure 193: Mistrust_of_Experts
Figure 194: Manichean_Outlook
Figure 195: Protectionism
Figure 196: Left_Populism
Table 19
Table 20: Left_Populism as grouped by Religious Affiliation
(a)
Religious Affiliation N Mean SD
Christian 1014 0.17 0.96
Muslim 9 -0.63 0.88
Jewish 52 -0.47 1.12
Atheist/Agnostic 230 -0.47 1.01
Not listed, No religion 195 -0.16 0.92
(b)
Religious Affiliation N Mean SD
Christian 1014 0.10 0.98
Muslim 9 0.04 0.80
Jewish 52 -0.19 1.13
Atheist/Agnostic 230 -0.20 1.02
Not listed, No religion 195 -0.23 1.00
(c)
Religious Affiliation N Mean SD
Christian 1014 0.06 0.97
Muslim 9 -0.01 0.78
Jewish 52 -0.39 1.20
Atheist/Agnostic 230 -0.23 1.06
Not listed, No religion 195 0.04 0.98
(d)
Religious Affiliation N Mean SD
Christian 1014 0.02 0.99
Muslim 9 -0.53 1.06
Jewish 52 -0.15 1.07
Atheist/Agnostic 230 0.04 0.96
Not listed, No religion 195 -0.11 1.06
(e)
Religious Affiliation N Mean SD
Christian 1014 0.01 1.00
Muslim 9 -0.61 1.33
Jewish 52 -0.29 0.91
Atheist/Agnostic 230 0.05 0.99
Not listed, No religion 195 0.00 1.02
(f)
Religious Affiliation N Mean SD
Christian 1014 0.15 0.94
Muslim 9 -0.03 0.90
Jewish 52 -0.45 1.14
Atheist/Agnostic 230 -0.52 1.04
Not listed, No religion 195 -0.05 0.97
(g)
Religious Affiliation N Mean SD
Christian 1014 0.11 0.99
Muslim 9 -0.63 0.86
Jewish 52 -0.38 1.04
Atheist/Agnostic 230 -0.30 0.97
Not listed, No religion 195 -0.07 0.98
(h)
Religious Affiliation N Mean SD
Christian 1014 0.18 0.92
Muslim 9 -0.74 0.99
Jewish 52 -0.44 1.07
Atheist/Agnostic 230 -0.55 1.03
Not listed, No religion 195 -0.11 1.07
(i)
Religious Affiliation N Mean SD
Christian 1014 0.11 1.01
Muslim 9 -0.20 0.92
Jewish 52 0.30 1.09
Atheist/Agnostic 230 -0.33 0.95
Not listed, No religion 195 -0.23 0.83

3.10 Section Summary

  Populism
Predictors Estimates CI p
(Intercept) 5.44 5.26 – 5.62 <.001
Age 0.14 0.11 – 0.17 <.001
Income 0.01 -0.01 – 0.03 .422
Education -0.18 -0.22 – -0.13 <.001
Gender (Male) 0.16 0.07 – 0.25 <.001
Observations 1500
R2 / R2 adjusted .099 / .097

4 Political Behavior

4.1 Political Orientation

Correlation with General Conservatism, Economic Conservatism, Social Conservatism

Figure 197: Populism
Figure 198: Sovereignty_of_the_People
Figure 199: Anti_Pluralism
Figure 200: Anti_Elitism
Figure 201: Representative_Gap
Figure 202: Mistrust_of_Experts
Figure 203: Manichean_Outlook
Figure 204: Protectionism
Figure 205: Left_Populism
Figure 206: Populism
Figure 207: Sovereignty_of_the_People
Figure 208: Anti_Pluralism
Figure 209: Anti_Elitism
Figure 210: Representative_Gap
Figure 211: Mistrust_of_Experts
Figure 212: Manichean_Outlook
Figure 213: Protectionism
Figure 214: Left_Populism
Figure 215: Populism
Figure 216: Sovereignty_of_the_People
Figure 217: Anti_Pluralism
Figure 218: Anti_Elitism
Figure 219: Representative_Gap
Figure 220: Mistrust_of_Experts
Figure 221: Manichean_Outlook
Figure 222: Protectionism
Figure 223: Left_Populism

Note. The y-axis shows residuals after regressing the outcome on demographics (Age, Income, Education, Gender). This illustrates how much the focal construct explains beyond demographic factors.

Table 21: Populism and Political Orientation
  Political Orientation Social Political Orientation Economic Political Orientation Composite Political Orientation
Predictors Estimates CI p Estimates CI p Estimates CI p Estimates CI p
(Intercept) 5.31 5.20 – 5.41 <.001 4.93 4.81 – 5.05 <.001 5.48 5.36 – 5.60 <.001 5.24 5.13 – 5.34 <.001
Populism 1.26 1.16 – 1.37 <.001 1.38 1.26 – 1.50 <.001 1.18 1.06 – 1.30 <.001 1.27 1.17 – 1.38 <.001
Observations 1500 1500 1500 1500
R2 / R2 adjusted .266 / .265 .250 / .249 .200 / .200 .276 / .276
  Political Orientation Social Political Orientation Economic Political Orientation Composite Political Orientation
Predictors Estimates CI p Estimates CI p Estimates CI p Estimates CI p
(Intercept) 5.31 5.18 – 5.43 <.001 4.93 4.79 – 5.07 <.001 5.48 5.35 – 5.61 <.001 5.24 5.12 – 5.36 <.001
Sovereignty_of_the_People 0.58 0.46 – 0.70 <.001 0.61 0.48 – 0.75 <.001 0.56 0.43 – 0.69 <.001 0.58 0.46 – 0.70 <.001
Observations 1500 1500 1500 1500
R2 / R2 adjusted .056 / .055 .049 / .048 .045 / .044 .058 / .057
  Political Orientation Social Political Orientation Economic Political Orientation Composite Political Orientation
Predictors Estimates CI p Estimates CI p Estimates CI p Estimates CI p
(Intercept) 5.31 5.19 – 5.42 <.001 4.93 4.80 – 5.06 <.001 5.48 5.35 – 5.61 <.001 5.24 5.12 – 5.35 <.001
Anti_Pluralism 0.71 0.59 – 0.83 <.001 0.84 0.71 – 0.97 <.001 0.63 0.50 – 0.76 <.001 0.73 0.61 – 0.84 <.001
Observations 1500 1500 1500 1500
R2 / R2 adjusted .084 / .083 .092 / .092 .057 / .056 .090 / .089
  Political Orientation Social Political Orientation Economic Political Orientation Composite Political Orientation
Predictors Estimates CI p Estimates CI p Estimates CI p Estimates CI p
(Intercept) 5.31 5.18 – 5.43 <.001 4.93 4.79 – 5.07 <.001 5.48 5.35 – 5.61 <.001 5.24 5.12 – 5.36 <.001
Anti_Elitism 0.24 0.11 – 0.36 <.001 0.25 0.11 – 0.39 .001 0.28 0.14 – 0.41 <.001 0.25 0.13 – 0.38 <.001
Observations 1500 1500 1500 1500
R2 / R2 adjusted .009 / .009 .008 / .007 .011 / .010 .011 / .010
  Political Orientation Social Political Orientation Economic Political Orientation Composite Political Orientation
Predictors Estimates CI p Estimates CI p Estimates CI p Estimates CI p
(Intercept) 5.31 5.18 – 5.43 <.001 4.93 4.79 – 5.07 <.001 5.48 5.35 – 5.61 <.001 5.24 5.12 – 5.36 <.001
Representative_Gap 0.26 0.14 – 0.39 <.001 0.28 0.14 – 0.42 <.001 0.19 0.06 – 0.32 .005 0.24 0.12 – 0.37 <.001
Observations 1500 1500 1500 1500
R2 / R2 adjusted .011 / .011 .010 / .010 .005 / .005 .010 / .009
  Political Orientation Social Political Orientation Economic Political Orientation Composite Political Orientation
Predictors Estimates CI p Estimates CI p Estimates CI p Estimates CI p
(Intercept) 5.31 5.19 – 5.42 <.001 4.93 4.80 – 5.06 <.001 5.48 5.35 – 5.61 <.001 5.24 5.12 – 5.35 <.001
Mistrust_of_Experts 0.95 0.83 – 1.06 <.001 1.09 0.96 – 1.21 <.001 0.80 0.68 – 0.93 <.001 0.94 0.83 – 1.06 <.001
Observations 1500 1500 1500 1500
R2 / R2 adjusted .148 / .148 .155 / .154 .093 / .092 .152 / .151
  Political Orientation Social Political Orientation Economic Political Orientation Composite Political Orientation
Predictors Estimates CI p Estimates CI p Estimates CI p Estimates CI p
(Intercept) 5.31 5.18 – 5.43 <.001 4.93 4.79 – 5.06 <.001 5.48 5.35 – 5.61 <.001 5.24 5.12 – 5.36 <.001
Manichean_Outlook 0.55 0.43 – 0.67 <.001 0.69 0.55 – 0.82 <.001 0.38 0.25 – 0.52 <.001 0.54 0.42 – 0.66 <.001
Observations 1500 1500 1500 1500
R2 / R2 adjusted .050 / .050 .062 / .062 .021 / .021 .050 / .049
  Political Orientation Social Political Orientation Economic Political Orientation Composite Political Orientation
Predictors Estimates CI p Estimates CI p Estimates CI p Estimates CI p
(Intercept) 5.31 5.20 – 5.41 <.001 4.93 4.81 – 5.05 <.001 5.48 5.36 – 5.60 <.001 5.24 5.14 – 5.34 <.001
Protectionism 1.33 1.23 – 1.44 <.001 1.43 1.31 – 1.55 <.001 1.22 1.10 – 1.34 <.001 1.33 1.23 – 1.43 <.001
Observations 1500 1500 1500 1500
R2 / R2 adjusted .296 / .295 .270 / .269 .216 / .215 .301 / .301
  Political Orientation Social Political Orientation Economic Political Orientation Composite Political Orientation
Predictors Estimates CI p Estimates CI p Estimates CI p Estimates CI p
(Intercept) 5.31 5.19 – 5.42 <.001 4.93 4.80 – 5.06 <.001 5.48 5.36 – 5.60 <.001 5.24 5.13 – 5.35 <.001
Left_Populism 0.95 0.83 – 1.06 <.001 0.90 0.76 – 1.03 <.001 1.17 1.05 – 1.29 <.001 1.00 0.89 – 1.12 <.001
Observations 1500 1500 1500 1500
R2 / R2 adjusted .148 / .148 .105 / .105 .197 / .197 .171 / .171
Table 22: Populism models and Demographics
  Political Orientation Social Political Orientation Economic Political Orientation Composite Political Orientation
Predictors Estimates CI p Estimates CI p Estimates CI p Estimates CI p
(Intercept) -3.87 -4.67 – -3.06 <.001 -4.49 -5.41 – -3.57 <.001 -4.01 -4.89 – -3.12 <.001 -4.12 -4.90 – -3.33 <.001
Populism 1.33 1.21 – 1.45 <.001 1.44 1.30 – 1.58 <.001 1.26 1.12 – 1.40 <.001 1.34 1.22 – 1.46 <.001
Age 0.13 0.06 – 0.20 <.001 0.15 0.07 – 0.23 <.001 0.13 0.05 – 0.21 .001 0.14 0.07 – 0.21 <.001
Income 0.06 0.00 – 0.12 .037 -0.03 -0.10 – 0.04 .384 0.11 0.05 – 0.18 .001 0.05 -0.01 – 0.11 .098
Education 0.05 -0.07 – 0.16 .434 0.01 -0.12 – 0.14 .875 0.20 0.07 – 0.32 .002 0.08 -0.03 – 0.20 .134
Gender (Male) 0.50 0.28 – 0.71 <.001 0.54 0.30 – 0.79 <.001 0.52 0.28 – 0.76 <.001 0.52 0.31 – 0.73 <.001
Observations 1500 1500 1500 1500
R2 / R2 adjusted .295 / .293 .270 / .267 .250 / .248 .309 / .307

4.2 Partisanship

Figure 224: Populism
Figure 225: Sovereignty_of_the_People
Figure 226: Anti_Pluralism
Figure 227: Anti_Elitism
Figure 228: Representative_Gap
Figure 229: Mistrust_of_Experts
Figure 230: Manichean_Outlook
Figure 231: Protectionism
Figure 232: Left_Populism
Table 23: Mean Populism by Party Identity (raw means)
Party Identity N Mean SD
Strong Democrat 351 5.12 0.83
Democrat 223 5.44 0.78
Leaning Democrat 124 5.29 0.67
Independent 84 5.73 0.81
Leaning Republican 111 6.03 0.84
Republican 255 5.99 0.78
Strong Republican 318 6.21 0.79
Table 24: Mean Sovereignty_of_the_People by Party Identity (raw means)
Party Identity N Mean SD
Strong Democrat 351 6.19 1.49
Democrat 223 6.23 1.45
Leaning Democrat 124 6.24 1.42
Independent 84 6.49 1.39
Leaning Republican 111 6.91 1.34
Republican 255 6.78 1.48
Strong Republican 318 7.01 1.49
Table 25: Mean Anti_Pluralism by Party Identity (raw means)
Party Identity N Mean SD
Strong Democrat 351 3.38 1.25
Democrat 223 3.77 1.13
Leaning Democrat 124 3.42 1.06
Independent 84 3.79 1.19
Leaning Republican 111 3.77 1.17
Republican 255 3.85 0.99
Strong Republican 318 4.21 1.14
Table 26: Mean Anti_Elitism by Party Identity (raw means)
Party Identity N Mean SD
Strong Democrat 351 6.57 1.42
Democrat 223 6.63 1.47
Leaning Democrat 124 6.81 1.35
Independent 84 6.91 1.32
Leaning Republican 111 7.22 1.36
Republican 255 6.91 1.30
Strong Republican 318 6.99 1.35
Table 27: Mean Representative_Gap by Party Identity (raw means)
Party Identity N Mean SD
Strong Democrat 351 6.55 1.76
Democrat 223 6.74 1.69
Leaning Democrat 124 6.72 1.58
Independent 84 7.12 1.63
Leaning Republican 111 7.21 1.65
Republican 255 7.02 1.50
Strong Republican 318 7.02 1.58
Table 28: Mean Mistrust_of_Experts by Party Identity (raw means)
Party Identity N Mean SD
Strong Democrat 351 4.23 1.52
Democrat 223 4.73 1.28
Leaning Democrat 124 4.37 1.28
Independent 84 5.13 1.13
Leaning Republican 111 5.04 1.40
Republican 255 5.28 1.21
Strong Republican 318 5.33 1.22
Table 29: Mean Manichean_Outlook by Party Identity (raw means)
Party Identity N Mean SD
Strong Democrat 351 6.36 1.67
Democrat 223 6.28 1.61
Leaning Democrat 124 6.19 1.49
Independent 84 6.46 1.61
Leaning Republican 111 6.73 1.55
Republican 255 6.75 1.61
Strong Republican 318 7.04 1.58
Table 30: Mean Protectionism by Party Identity (raw means)
Party Identity N Mean SD
Strong Democrat 351 4.61 1.61
Democrat 223 5.35 1.58
Leaning Democrat 124 5.01 1.34
Independent 84 5.74 1.66
Leaning Republican 111 6.40 1.43
Republican 255 6.51 1.39
Strong Republican 318 6.82 1.36
Table 31: Mean Left_Populism by Party Identity (raw means)
Party Identity N Mean SD
Strong Democrat 351 3.82 1.56
Democrat 223 4.03 1.47
Leaning Democrat 124 4.02 1.42
Independent 84 4.42 1.68
Leaning Republican 111 5.38 1.98
Republican 255 5.09 1.87
Strong Republican 318 5.65 1.92
Table 32: Populism & Party Identity (7-point)
  Populism
Predictors Estimates CI p
(Intercept) 4.97 4.89 – 5.05 <.001
Party Identity (7-point) 0.18 0.16 – 0.19 <.001
Observations 1466
R2 / R2 adjusted .216 / .216
  Sovereignty_of_the_People
Predictors Estimates CI p
(Intercept) 5.99 5.84 – 6.13 <.001
Party Identity (7-point) 0.14 0.11 – 0.17 <.001
Observations 1466
R2 / R2 adjusted .051 / .050
  Anti_Pluralism
Predictors Estimates CI p
(Intercept) 3.31 3.20 – 3.43 <.001
Party Identity (7-point) 0.11 0.09 – 0.14 <.001
Observations 1466
R2 / R2 adjusted .050 / .050
  Anti_Elitism
Predictors Estimates CI p
(Intercept) 6.52 6.39 – 6.66 <.001
Party Identity (7-point) 0.07 0.04 – 0.10 <.001
Observations 1466
R2 / R2 adjusted .016 / .015
  Representative_Gap
Predictors Estimates CI p
(Intercept) 6.53 6.36 – 6.69 <.001
Party Identity (7-point) 0.08 0.05 – 0.12 <.001
Observations 1466
R2 / R2 adjusted .014 / .013
  Mistrust_of_Experts
Predictors Estimates CI p
(Intercept) 4.15 4.01 – 4.28 <.001
Party Identity (7-point) 0.18 0.15 – 0.21 <.001
Observations 1466
R2 / R2 adjusted .091 / .090
  Manichean_Outlook
Predictors Estimates CI p
(Intercept) 6.12 5.96 – 6.28 <.001
Party Identity (7-point) 0.12 0.08 – 0.15 <.001
Observations 1466
R2 / R2 adjusted .029 / .028
  Protectionism
Predictors Estimates CI p
(Intercept) 4.33 4.18 – 4.48 <.001
Party Identity (7-point) 0.36 0.33 – 0.39 <.001
Observations 1466
R2 / R2 adjusted .246 / .246
  Left_Populism
Predictors Estimates CI p
(Intercept) 3.43 3.26 – 3.61 <.001
Party Identity (7-point) 0.30 0.27 – 0.34 <.001
Observations 1466
R2 / R2 adjusted .148 / .147
Table 33: Populism & Party Identity with Controls
  Populism
Predictors Estimates CI p
(Intercept) 5.15 4.98 – 5.32 <.001
Party Identity (7-point) 0.16 0.15 – 0.18 <.001
Age 0.09 0.07 – 0.12 <.001
Income -0.01 -0.03 – 0.02 .639
Education -0.15 -0.19 – -0.11 <.001
Gender (Male) 0.02 -0.07 – 0.10 .695
Observations 1466
R2 / R2 adjusted .267 / .264
  Sovereignty_of_the_People
Predictors Estimates CI p
(Intercept) 5.60 5.28 – 5.92 <.001
Party Identity (7-point) 0.11 0.08 – 0.15 <.001
Age 0.13 0.08 – 0.18 <.001
Income 0.03 -0.01 – 0.07 .135
Education -0.12 -0.20 – -0.04 .004
Gender (Male) 0.17 0.01 – 0.32 .034
Observations 1466
R2 / R2 adjusted .079 / .076
  Anti_Pluralism
Predictors Estimates CI p
(Intercept) 3.85 3.60 – 4.11 <.001
Party Identity (7-point) 0.13 0.10 – 0.15 <.001
Age -0.09 -0.13 – -0.05 <.001
Income -0.01 -0.05 – 0.02 .442
Education -0.08 -0.14 – -0.02 .012
Gender (Male) 0.01 -0.11 – 0.13 .835
Observations 1466
R2 / R2 adjusted .076 / .073
  Anti_Elitism
Predictors Estimates CI p
(Intercept) 6.20 5.89 – 6.50 <.001
Party Identity (7-point) 0.05 0.02 – 0.08 .002
Age 0.13 0.09 – 0.18 <.001
Income -0.01 -0.05 – 0.03 .729
Education -0.07 -0.15 – 0.00 .061
Gender (Male) 0.13 -0.02 – 0.27 .080
Observations 1466
R2 / R2 adjusted .043 / .040
  Representative_Gap
Predictors Estimates CI p
(Intercept) 7.17 6.81 – 7.53 <.001
Party Identity (7-point) 0.08 0.04 – 0.11 <.001
Age 0.09 0.04 – 0.15 .001
Income -0.06 -0.10 – -0.01 .019
Education -0.20 -0.29 – -0.11 <.001
Gender (Male) -0.07 -0.24 – 0.10 .419
Observations 1466
R2 / R2 adjusted .046 / .042
  Mistrust_of_Experts
Predictors Estimates CI p
(Intercept) 4.93 4.64 – 5.22 <.001
Party Identity (7-point) 0.18 0.15 – 0.20 <.001
Age 0.06 0.02 – 0.11 .004
Income -0.02 -0.05 – 0.02 .388
Education -0.26 -0.33 – -0.19 <.001
Gender (Male) -0.08 -0.22 – 0.05 .228
Observations 1466
R2 / R2 adjusted .137 / .134
  Manichean_Outlook
Predictors Estimates CI p
(Intercept) 6.73 6.38 – 7.09 <.001
Party Identity (7-point) 0.11 0.07 – 0.14 <.001
Age 0.11 0.06 – 0.16 <.001
Income -0.04 -0.09 – 0.00 .061
Education -0.24 -0.32 – -0.15 <.001
Gender (Male) -0.04 -0.21 – 0.13 .647
Observations 1466
R2 / R2 adjusted .068 / .064
  Protectionism
Predictors Estimates CI p
(Intercept) 4.79 4.47 – 5.11 <.001
Party Identity (7-point) 0.34 0.30 – 0.37 <.001
Age 0.20 0.15 – 0.25 <.001
Income 0.01 -0.03 – 0.05 .743
Education -0.31 -0.38 – -0.23 <.001
Gender (Male) -0.12 -0.27 – 0.03 .127
Observations 1466
R2 / R2 adjusted .303 / .301
  Left_Populism
Predictors Estimates CI p
(Intercept) 1.70 1.33 – 2.07 <.001
Party Identity (7-point) 0.27 0.23 – 0.31 <.001
Age 0.10 0.05 – 0.16 <.001
Income 0.06 0.01 – 0.11 .010
Education 0.26 0.17 – 0.35 <.001
Gender (Male) 0.30 0.13 – 0.48 .001
Observations 1466
R2 / R2 adjusted .212 / .209

4.3 Religiosity

Figure 233: Populism
Figure 234: Sovereignty_of_the_People
Figure 235: Anti_Pluralism
Figure 236: Anti_Elitism
Figure 237: Representative_Gap
Figure 238: Mistrust_of_Experts
Figure 239: Manichean_Outlook
Figure 240: Protectionism
Figure 241: Left_Populism
Figure 242: Populism
Figure 243: Sovereignty_of_the_People
Figure 244: Anti_Pluralism
Figure 245: Anti_Elitism
Figure 246: Representative_Gap
Figure 247: Mistrust_of_Experts
Figure 248: Manichean_Outlook
Figure 249: Protectionism
Figure 250: Left_Populism

Note. The y-axis shows residuals after regressing the outcome on demographics (Age, Income, Education, Gender). This illustrates how much the focal construct explains beyond demographic factors.

Figure 251: Populism
Figure 252: Sovereignty_of_the_People
Figure 253: Anti_Pluralism
Figure 254: Anti_Elitism
Figure 255: Representative_Gap
Figure 256: Mistrust_of_Experts
Figure 257: Manichean_Outlook
Figure 258: Protectionism
Figure 259: Left_Populism

4.4 Candidate Preferences

Figure 260: Populism
Figure 261: Sovereignty_of_the_People
Figure 262: Anti_Pluralism
Figure 263: Anti_Elitism
Figure 264: Representative_Gap
Figure 265: Mistrust_of_Experts
Figure 266: Manichean_Outlook
Figure 267: Protectionism
Figure 268: Left_Populism
Table 34: Candidate Preference and Populism [centered]
Candidate Preference N Mean SD
Donald Trump 444 0.71 0.82
Hillary Clinton 371 -0.52 0.88
Bernie Sanders 362 -0.48 0.82
Ted Cruz 122 0.39 0.88
Jeb Bush 83 -0.03 0.75
Gary Johnson 68 -0.24 0.86
Rand Paul 44 0.47 0.89
Table 35: Candidate Preference and Sovereignty_of_the_People [centered]
Candidate Preference N Mean SD
Donald Trump 444 0.42 0.93
Hillary Clinton 371 -0.25 1.01
Bernie Sanders 362 -0.26 0.90
Ted Cruz 122 -0.06 1.04
Jeb Bush 83 0.04 0.89
Gary Johnson 68 -0.09 1.08
Rand Paul 44 0.22 0.93
Table 36: Candidate Preference and Anti_Pluralism [centered]
Candidate Preference N Mean SD
Donald Trump 444 0.22 0.92
Hillary Clinton 371 -0.20 1.01
Bernie Sanders 362 -0.19 1.02
Ted Cruz 122 0.39 0.96
Jeb Bush 83 0.09 0.92
Gary Johnson 68 -0.38 1.06
Rand Paul 44 0.25 0.82
Table 37: Candidate Preference and Anti_Elitism [centered]
Candidate Preference N Mean SD
Donald Trump 444 0.27 0.96
Hillary Clinton 371 -0.30 0.99
Bernie Sanders 362 -0.02 1.01
Ted Cruz 122 0.01 0.93
Jeb Bush 83 -0.09 0.81
Gary Johnson 68 -0.06 1.08
Rand Paul 44 0.18 1.07
Table 38: Candidate Preference and Representative_Gap [centered]
Candidate Preference N Mean SD
Donald Trump 444 0.28 0.91
Hillary Clinton 371 -0.33 1.04
Bernie Sanders 362 0.03 0.98
Ted Cruz 122 0.04 0.93
Jeb Bush 83 -0.25 0.88
Gary Johnson 68 -0.11 1.07
Rand Paul 44 0.21 1.06
Table 39: Candidate Preference and Mistrust_of_Experts [centered]
Candidate Preference N Mean SD
Donald Trump 444 0.45 0.86
Hillary Clinton 371 -0.30 1.03
Bernie Sanders 362 -0.34 1.00
Ted Cruz 122 0.34 0.88
Jeb Bush 83 -0.13 0.78
Gary Johnson 68 -0.21 0.81
Rand Paul 44 0.32 0.90
Table 40: Candidate Preference and Manichean_Outlook [centered]
Candidate Preference N Mean SD
Donald Trump 444 0.37 0.94
Hillary Clinton 371 -0.22 1.01
Bernie Sanders 362 -0.18 0.94
Ted Cruz 122 0.12 0.97
Jeb Bush 83 -0.42 0.88
Gary Johnson 68 -0.19 1.07
Rand Paul 44 0.33 1.03
Table 41: Candidate Preference and Protectionism [centered]
Candidate Preference N Mean SD
Donald Trump 444 0.78 0.72
Hillary Clinton 371 -0.45 0.86
Bernie Sanders 362 -0.62 0.88
Ted Cruz 122 0.35 0.73
Jeb Bush 83 0.02 0.73
Gary Johnson 68 -0.30 1.01
Rand Paul 44 0.37 0.83
Table 42: Candidate Preference and Left_Populism [centered]
Candidate Preference N Mean SD
Donald Trump 444 0.24 1.06
Hillary Clinton 371 -0.26 0.82
Bernie Sanders 362 -0.49 0.76
Ted Cruz 122 0.62 1.00
Jeb Bush 83 0.59 0.93
Gary Johnson 68 0.43 1.06
Rand Paul 44 0.29 1.11
Table 43: Candidate Preference and Populism [raw means]
Candidate Preference N Mean SD
Donald Trump 444 6.31 0.74
Hillary Clinton 371 5.21 0.79
Bernie Sanders 362 5.24 0.74
Ted Cruz 122 6.02 0.79
Jeb Bush 83 5.64 0.68
Gary Johnson 68 5.46 0.77
Rand Paul 44 6.10 0.80
Table 44: Candidate Preference and Sovereignty_of_the_People [raw means]
Candidate Preference N Mean SD
Donald Trump 444 7.17 1.39
Hillary Clinton 371 6.16 1.51
Bernie Sanders 362 6.14 1.36
Ted Cruz 122 6.45 1.56
Jeb Bush 83 6.59 1.33
Gary Johnson 68 6.39 1.62
Rand Paul 44 6.87 1.40
Table 45: Candidate Preference and Anti_Pluralism [raw means]
Candidate Preference N Mean SD
Donald Trump 444 4.03 1.09
Hillary Clinton 371 3.53 1.19
Bernie Sanders 362 3.54 1.20
Ted Cruz 122 4.22 1.14
Jeb Bush 83 3.87 1.09
Gary Johnson 68 3.32 1.26
Rand Paul 44 4.06 0.97
Table 46: Candidate Preference and Anti_Elitism [raw means]
Candidate Preference N Mean SD
Donald Trump 444 7.19 1.33
Hillary Clinton 371 6.40 1.38
Bernie Sanders 362 6.79 1.40
Ted Cruz 122 6.83 1.30
Jeb Bush 83 6.69 1.13
Gary Johnson 68 6.74 1.51
Rand Paul 44 7.07 1.49
Table 47: Candidate Preference and Representative_Gap [raw means]
Candidate Preference N Mean SD
Donald Trump 444 7.32 1.50
Hillary Clinton 371 6.32 1.72
Bernie Sanders 362 6.90 1.62
Ted Cruz 122 6.93 1.54
Jeb Bush 83 6.45 1.46
Gary Johnson 68 6.68 1.76
Rand Paul 44 7.21 1.76
Table 48: Candidate Preference and Mistrust_of_Experts [raw means]
Candidate Preference N Mean SD
Donald Trump 444 5.47 1.20
Hillary Clinton 371 4.43 1.43
Bernie Sanders 362 4.38 1.38
Ted Cruz 122 5.32 1.23
Jeb Bush 83 4.67 1.08
Gary Johnson 68 4.56 1.12
Rand Paul 44 5.30 1.25
Table 49: Candidate Preference and Manichean_Outlook [raw means]
Candidate Preference N Mean SD
Donald Trump 444 7.18 1.53
Hillary Clinton 371 6.23 1.65
Bernie Sanders 362 6.29 1.53
Ted Cruz 122 6.77 1.58
Jeb Bush 83 5.89 1.43
Gary Johnson 68 6.27 1.74
Rand Paul 44 7.11 1.68
Table 50: Candidate Preference and Protectionism [raw means]
Candidate Preference N Mean SD
Donald Trump 444 7.11 1.23
Hillary Clinton 371 4.99 1.48
Bernie Sanders 362 4.70 1.51
Ted Cruz 122 6.36 1.26
Jeb Bush 83 5.80 1.25
Gary Johnson 68 5.24 1.73
Rand Paul 44 6.40 1.43
Table 51: Candidate Preference and Left_Populism [raw means]
Candidate Preference N Mean SD
Donald Trump 444 5.10 1.97
Hillary Clinton 371 4.17 1.53
Bernie Sanders 362 3.74 1.41
Ted Cruz 122 5.80 1.86
Jeb Bush 83 5.75 1.74
Gary Johnson 68 5.45 1.97
Rand Paul 44 5.18 2.07

4.5 Party Preferences

Figure 269: Populism
Figure 270: Sovereignty_of_the_People
Figure 271: Anti_Pluralism
Figure 272: Anti_Elitism
Figure 273: Representative_Gap
Figure 274: Mistrust_of_Experts
Figure 275: Manichean_Outlook
Figure 276: Protectionism
Figure 277: Left_Populism
Table 52: Party Preference and Populism [centered]
Party Preference N Mean SD
Democratic Party 560 -0.51 0.90
Republican Party 508 0.44 0.85
Libertarian Party 100 -0.03 0.96
Green Party 40 -0.61 0.86
Tea Party 68 1.13 0.84
Constitution Party 14 0.19 0.56
None 120 0.17 0.94
Don't know 90 -0.08 0.76
Table 53: Party Preference and Sovereignty_of_the_People [centered]
Party Preference N Mean SD
Democratic Party 560 -0.23 1.00
Republican Party 508 0.27 0.94
Libertarian Party 100 -0.09 0.99
Green Party 40 -0.21 0.92
Tea Party 68 0.37 1.11
Constitution Party 14 -0.44 1.20
None 120 0.07 0.93
Don't know 90 -0.23 0.95
Table 54: Party Preference and Anti_Pluralism [centered]
Party Preference N Mean SD
Democratic Party 560 -0.24 1.03
Republican Party 508 0.17 0.88
Libertarian Party 100 -0.22 1.02
Green Party 40 -0.34 0.90
Tea Party 68 0.84 1.02
Constitution Party 14 -0.01 0.94
None 120 0.03 0.99
Don't know 90 0.25 0.93
Table 55: Party Preference and Anti_Elitism [centered]
Party Preference N Mean SD
Democratic Party 560 -0.18 1.01
Republican Party 508 0.05 0.96
Libertarian Party 100 0.26 0.87
Green Party 40 0.34 0.86
Tea Party 68 0.59 0.86
Constitution Party 14 0.02 1.49
None 120 0.18 1.00
Don't know 90 -0.26 1.01
Table 56: Party Preference and Representative_Gap [centered]
Party Preference N Mean SD
Democratic Party 560 -0.18 1.04
Republican Party 508 0.05 0.97
Libertarian Party 100 0.17 0.97
Green Party 40 0.19 1.03
Tea Party 68 0.44 0.82
Constitution Party 14 0.33 0.87
None 120 0.19 0.98
Don't know 90 -0.09 0.89
Table 57: Party Preference and Mistrust_of_Experts [centered]
Party Preference N Mean SD
Democratic Party 560 -0.33 1.04
Republican Party 508 0.30 0.88
Libertarian Party 100 -0.16 0.99
Green Party 40 -0.80 0.93
Tea Party 68 0.54 0.90
Constitution Party 14 0.39 0.45
None 120 0.21 0.92
Don't know 90 0.10 0.78
Table 58: Party Preference and Manichean_Outlook [centered]
Party Preference N Mean SD
Democratic Party 560 -0.19 1.01
Republican Party 508 0.20 0.96
Libertarian Party 100 -0.13 1.04
Green Party 40 -0.08 0.89
Tea Party 68 0.57 0.85
Constitution Party 14 0.26 0.62
None 120 -0.09 1.04
Don't know 90 -0.14 0.90
Table 59: Party Preference and Protectionism [centered]
Party Preference N Mean SD
Democratic Party 560 -0.53 0.91
Republican Party 508 0.53 0.78
Libertarian Party 100 -0.17 0.99
Green Party 40 -0.80 0.85
Tea Party 68 0.86 0.70
Constitution Party 14 0.15 0.98
None 120 0.13 0.98
Don't know 90 0.04 0.83
Table 60: Party Preference and Left_Populism [centered]
Party Preference N Mean SD
Democratic Party 560 -0.35 0.82
Republican Party 508 0.31 0.97
Libertarian Party 100 0.32 1.15
Green Party 40 -0.96 0.67
Tea Party 68 1.05 1.01
Constitution Party 14 0.17 1.24
None 120 -0.10 0.91
Don't know 90 -0.17 0.84
Table 61: Party Preference and Populism [raw means]
Party Preference N Mean SD
Democratic Party 560 5.21 0.81
Republican Party 508 6.06 0.77
Libertarian Party 100 5.64 0.86
Green Party 40 5.12 0.77
Tea Party 68 6.68 0.75
Constitution Party 14 5.85 0.50
None 120 5.82 0.85
Don't know 90 5.60 0.68
Table 62: Party Preference and Sovereignty_of_the_People [raw means]
Party Preference N Mean SD
Democratic Party 560 6.19 1.49
Republican Party 508 6.95 1.41
Libertarian Party 100 6.40 1.49
Green Party 40 6.22 1.38
Tea Party 68 7.09 1.67
Constitution Party 14 5.88 1.81
None 120 6.64 1.39
Don't know 90 6.19 1.42
Table 63: Party Preference and Anti_Pluralism [raw means]
Party Preference N Mean SD
Democratic Party 560 3.49 1.21
Republican Party 508 3.96 1.04
Libertarian Party 100 3.51 1.21
Green Party 40 3.36 1.06
Tea Party 68 4.76 1.20
Constitution Party 14 3.75 1.11
None 120 3.80 1.17
Don't know 90 4.06 1.10
Table 64: Party Preference and Anti_Elitism [raw means]
Party Preference N Mean SD
Democratic Party 560 6.56 1.41
Republican Party 508 6.88 1.34
Libertarian Party 100 7.17 1.20
Green Party 40 7.29 1.20
Tea Party 68 7.64 1.20
Constitution Party 14 6.84 2.07
None 120 7.06 1.39
Don't know 90 6.46 1.41
Table 65: Party Preference and Representative_Gap [raw means]
Party Preference N Mean SD
Democratic Party 560 6.56 1.73
Republican Party 508 6.94 1.59
Libertarian Party 100 7.14 1.60
Green Party 40 7.18 1.71
Tea Party 68 7.59 1.35
Constitution Party 14 7.40 1.44
None 120 7.18 1.61
Don't know 90 6.71 1.47
Table 66: Party Preference and Mistrust_of_Experts [raw means]
Party Preference N Mean SD
Democratic Party 560 4.39 1.44
Republican Party 508 5.27 1.22
Libertarian Party 100 4.63 1.37
Green Party 40 3.74 1.29
Tea Party 68 5.60 1.25
Constitution Party 14 5.39 0.63
None 120 5.14 1.28
Don't know 90 4.99 1.09
Table 67: Party Preference and Manichean_Outlook [raw means]
Party Preference N Mean SD
Democratic Party 560 6.28 1.65
Republican Party 508 6.90 1.57
Libertarian Party 100 6.36 1.69
Green Party 40 6.45 1.46
Tea Party 68 7.51 1.39
Constitution Party 14 7.00 1.02
None 120 6.44 1.70
Don't know 90 6.35 1.46
Table 68: Party Preference and Protectionism [raw means]
Party Preference N Mean SD
Democratic Party 560 4.85 1.56
Republican Party 508 6.67 1.34
Libertarian Party 100 5.47 1.69
Green Party 40 4.38 1.45
Tea Party 68 7.23 1.20
Constitution Party 14 6.03 1.68
None 120 5.99 1.69
Don't know 90 5.84 1.42
Table 69: Party Preference and Left_Populism [raw means]
Party Preference N Mean SD
Democratic Party 560 3.99 1.53
Republican Party 508 5.22 1.81
Libertarian Party 100 5.25 2.14
Green Party 40 2.86 1.26
Tea Party 68 6.60 1.87
Constitution Party 14 4.96 2.31
None 120 4.46 1.70
Don't know 90 4.33 1.56

4.6 Voting

Table 70: Populism Voting Preferences
  2016 [Trump vs. Clinton] 2016 [Trump vs. Clinton] + Supporters 2012 [Romney vs. Obama] 2008 [McCain vs. Obama]
Predictors Log-Odds CI p Log-Odds CI p Log-Odds CI p Log-Odds CI p
(Intercept) .101 -Inf – Inf .194 .073 -Inf – Inf .334 .197 -Inf – Inf .003 .242 -Inf – Inf <.001
Populism -1.785 -Inf – Inf <.001 -1.747 -Inf – Inf <.001 -1.212 -Inf – Inf <.001 -1.095 -Inf – Inf <.001
Observations 1103 1148 1236 1206
R2 Tjur .395 .383 .236 .209
Figure 278: Populism
Figure 279: Sovereignty of the People
Figure 280: Anti-Pluralism
Figure 281: Anti-Elitism
Figure 282: Representative Gap
Figure 283: Mistrust of Experts
Figure 284: Manichean Outlook
Figure 285: Protectionism
Figure 286: Left Populism

4.7 Voting & Party Identity

Figure 287: Populism
Figure 288: Sovereignty_of_the_People
Figure 289: Anti_Pluralism
Figure 290: Anti_Elitism
Figure 291: Representative_Gap
Figure 292: Mistrust_of_Experts
Figure 293: Manichean_Outlook
Figure 294: Protectionism
Figure 295: Left_Populism
Table 71: Populism and Party Identity & Voting
Donald Trump Hilary Clinton
Strong Republican 282 7
Republican 166 24
Leaning Republican 58 7
Independent 17 16
Leaning Democrat 10 65
Democrat 27 129
Strong Democrat 4 323
Table 72: Sovereignty_of_the_People and Party Identity
Donald Trump Hilary Clinton
Strong Republican 282 7
Republican 166 24
Leaning Republican 58 7
Independent 17 16
Leaning Democrat 10 65
Democrat 27 129
Strong Democrat 4 323
Table 73: Anti_Pluralism and Party Identity
Donald Trump Hilary Clinton
Strong Republican 282 7
Republican 166 24
Leaning Republican 58 7
Independent 17 16
Leaning Democrat 10 65
Democrat 27 129
Strong Democrat 4 323
Table 74: Anti_Elitism and Party Identity
Donald Trump Hilary Clinton
Strong Republican 282 7
Republican 166 24
Leaning Republican 58 7
Independent 17 16
Leaning Democrat 10 65
Democrat 27 129
Strong Democrat 4 323
Table 75: Representative_Gap and Party Identity
Donald Trump Hilary Clinton
Strong Republican 282 7
Republican 166 24
Leaning Republican 58 7
Independent 17 16
Leaning Democrat 10 65
Democrat 27 129
Strong Democrat 4 323
Table 76: Mistrust_of_Experts and Party Identity
Donald Trump Hilary Clinton
Strong Republican 282 7
Republican 166 24
Leaning Republican 58 7
Independent 17 16
Leaning Democrat 10 65
Democrat 27 129
Strong Democrat 4 323
Table 77: Manichean_Outlook and Party Identity
Donald Trump Hilary Clinton
Strong Republican 282 7
Republican 166 24
Leaning Republican 58 7
Independent 17 16
Leaning Democrat 10 65
Democrat 27 129
Strong Democrat 4 323
Table 78: Protectionism and Party Identity
Donald Trump Hilary Clinton
Strong Republican 282 7
Republican 166 24
Leaning Republican 58 7
Independent 17 16
Leaning Democrat 10 65
Democrat 27 129
Strong Democrat 4 323
Table 79: Left_Populism and Party Identity
Donald Trump Hilary Clinton
Strong Republican 282 7
Republican 166 24
Leaning Republican 58 7
Independent 17 16
Leaning Democrat 10 65
Democrat 27 129
Strong Democrat 4 323
Table 80
  2016 [Clinton vs. Trump] 2016 [Trump vs. Clinton] + Supporters
Predictors Odds Ratios CI p Odds Ratios CI p
(Intercept) 7041.98 864.74 – 67319.78 <.001 397400.51 49918.39 – 3863439.76 <.001
Party Identity (dichotomous) 177.42 100.90 – 331.49 <.001
Party Identity (dichotomous) 0.14 0.09 – 0.20 <.001 0.16 0.11 – 0.22 <.001
Populism 0.01 0.00 – 0.01 <.001
Observations 1103 1148
R2 Tjur .798 .770
Figure 296: Populism
Figure 297: Sovereignty_of_the_People
Figure 298: Anti_Pluralism
Figure 299: Anti_Elitism
Figure 300: Representative_Gap
Figure 301: Mistrust_of_Experts
Figure 302: Manichean_Outlook
Figure 303: Protectionism
Figure 304: Left_Populism
  2016 [Clinton vs. Trump] 2016 [Trump vs. Clinton] + Supporters
Predictors Odds Ratios CI p Odds Ratios CI p
(Intercept) 2.54 0.91 – 7.11 .075 334.08 113.27 – 1051.89 <.001
Scr_PIDFDemocrat 212.43 129.14 – 365.23 <.001
facet 0.58 0.49 – 0.68 <.001 0.60 0.52 – 0.70 <.001
PIDFRepublican 0.01 0.00 – 0.01 <.001
Observations 1103 1148
R2 Tjur .759 .732
  2016 [Clinton vs. Trump] 2016 [Trump vs. Clinton] + Supporters
Predictors Odds Ratios CI p Odds Ratios CI p
(Intercept) 0.26 0.11 – 0.59 .002 44.40 20.13 – 102.73 <.001
Scr_PIDFDemocrat 170.90 108.33 – 278.24 <.001
facet 0.73 0.59 – 0.90 .003 0.70 0.57 – 0.85 <.001
PIDFRepublican 0.01 0.00 – 0.01 <.001
Observations 1103 1148
R2 Tjur .749 .723
  2016 [Clinton vs. Trump] 2016 [Trump vs. Clinton] + Supporters
Predictors Odds Ratios CI p Odds Ratios CI p
(Intercept) 2.46 0.74 – 8.05 .138 335.88 98.03 – 1236.16 <.001
Scr_PIDFDemocrat 220.49 134.44 – 377.98 <.001
facet 0.59 0.49 – 0.71 <.001 0.62 0.52 – 0.73 <.001
PIDFRepublican 0.01 0.00 – 0.01 <.001
Observations 1103 1148
R2 Tjur .755 .728
  2016 [Clinton vs. Trump] 2016 [Trump vs. Clinton] + Supporters
Predictors Odds Ratios CI p Odds Ratios CI p
(Intercept) 2.57 0.94 – 7.05 .066 375.45 123.84 – 1230.31 <.001
Scr_PIDFDemocrat 264.40 155.82 – 473.67 <.001
facet 0.58 0.50 – 0.68 <.001 0.62 0.53 – 0.71 <.001
PIDFRepublican 0.01 0.00 – 0.01 <.001
Observations 1103 1148
R2 Tjur .760 .733
  2016 [Clinton vs. Trump] 2016 [Trump vs. Clinton] + Supporters
Predictors Odds Ratios CI p Odds Ratios CI p
(Intercept) 1.27 0.51 – 3.16 .607 156.39 62.82 – 415.01 <.001
Scr_PIDFDemocrat 169.17 105.19 – 282.32 <.001
facet 0.57 0.47 – 0.68 <.001 0.58 0.49 – 0.69 <.001
PIDFRepublican 0.01 0.00 – 0.01 <.001
Observations 1103 1148
R2 Tjur .758 .732
  2016 [Clinton vs. Trump] 2016 [Trump vs. Clinton] + Supporters
Predictors Odds Ratios CI p Odds Ratios CI p
(Intercept) 2.81 1.09 – 7.31 .032 330.69 117.19 – 999.95 <.001
Scr_PIDFDemocrat 268.64 157.69 – 482.91 <.001
facet 0.56 0.48 – 0.65 <.001 0.61 0.53 – 0.70 <.001
PIDFRepublican 0.01 0.00 – 0.01 <.001
Observations 1103 1148
R2 Tjur .765 .735
  2016 [Clinton vs. Trump] 2016 [Trump vs. Clinton] + Supporters
Predictors Odds Ratios CI p Odds Ratios CI p
(Intercept) 42.37 13.41 – 142.34 <.001 2757.28 854.08 – 10010.85 <.001
Scr_PIDFDemocrat 146.94 84.93 – 268.60 <.001
facet 0.36 0.29 – 0.43 <.001 0.39 0.32 – 0.47 <.001
PIDFRepublican 0.01 0.01 – 0.02 <.001
Observations 1103 1148
R2 Tjur .797 .769
  2016 [Clinton vs. Trump] 2016 [Trump vs. Clinton] + Supporters
Predictors Odds Ratios CI p Odds Ratios CI p
(Intercept) 0.07 0.03 – 0.15 <.001 11.51 6.56 – 20.77 <.001
Scr_PIDFDemocrat 192.93 117.24 – 331.68 <.001
facet 1.02 0.89 – 1.16 .810 1.01 0.89 – 1.14 .908
PIDFRepublican 0.01 0.00 – 0.01 <.001
Observations 1103 1148
R2 Tjur .747 .720

4.8 Likeability

Figure 305: Populism
Figure 306: Sovereignty_of_the_People
Figure 307: Anti_Pluralism
Figure 308: Anti_Elitism
Figure 309: Representative_Gap
Figure 310: Mistrust_of_Experts
Figure 311: Manichean_Outlook
Figure 312: Protectionism
Figure 313: Left_Populism
Figure 314: Populism
Figure 315: Sovereignty_of_the_People
Figure 316: Anti_Pluralism
Figure 317: Anti_Elitism
Figure 318: Representative_Gap
Figure 319: Mistrust_of_Experts
Figure 320: Manichean_Outlook
Figure 321: Protectionism
Figure 322: Left_Populism

Note. The y-axis shows residuals after regressing the outcome on demographics (Age, Income, Education, Gender). This illustrates how much the focal construct explains beyond demographic factors.

Figure 323: Populism
Figure 324: Sovereignty_of_the_People
Figure 325: Anti_Pluralism
Figure 326: Anti_Elitism
Figure 327: Representative_Gap
Figure 328: Mistrust_of_Experts
Figure 329: Manichean_Outlook
Figure 330: Protectionism
Figure 331: Left_Populism
Figure 332: Populism
Figure 333: Sovereignty_of_the_People
Figure 334: Anti_Pluralism
Figure 335: Anti_Elitism
Figure 336: Representative_Gap
Figure 337: Mistrust_of_Experts
Figure 338: Manichean_Outlook
Figure 339: Protectionism
Figure 340: Left_Populism

Note. The y-axis shows residuals after regressing the outcome on demographics (Age, Income, Education, Gender). This illustrates how much the focal construct explains beyond demographic factors.

Figure 341: Populism
Figure 342: Sovereignty_of_the_People
Figure 343: Anti_Pluralism
Figure 344: Anti_Elitism
Figure 345: Representative_Gap
Figure 346: Mistrust_of_Experts
Figure 347: Manichean_Outlook
Figure 348: Protectionism
Figure 349: Left_Populism
Figure 350: Populism
Figure 351: Sovereignty_of_the_People
Figure 352: Anti_Pluralism
Figure 353: Anti_Elitism
Figure 354: Representative_Gap
Figure 355: Mistrust_of_Experts
Figure 356: Manichean_Outlook
Figure 357: Protectionism
Figure 358: Left_Populism

Note. The y-axis shows residuals after regressing the outcome on demographics (Age, Income, Education, Gender). This illustrates how much the focal construct explains beyond demographic factors.

5 Politico-Psychological correlates of Populism


5.1 Ideologies and Partisanship

Figure 359: Populism (by magnitude)
Figure 360: Sovereignty_of_the_People
Figure 361: Anti_Pluralism
Figure 362: Anti_Elitism
Figure 363: Representative_Gap
Figure 364: Mistrust_of_Experts
Figure 365: Manichean_Outlook
Figure 366: Protectionism
Figure 367: Left_Populism
Figure 368: Populism (alphabetic)
Figure 369: Sovereignty_of_the_People
Figure 370: Anti_Pluralism
Figure 371: Anti_Elitism
Figure 372: Representative_Gap
Figure 373: Mistrust_of_Experts
Figure 374: Manichean_Outlook
Figure 375: Protectionism
Figure 376: Left_Populism

5.2 Populism, Nationalism, Nativism, and Patriotism

Figure 377: Populism (by magnitude)
Figure 378: Sovereignty_of_the_People
Figure 379: Anti_Pluralism
Figure 380: Anti_Elitism
Figure 381: Representative_Gap
Figure 382: Mistrust_of_Experts
Figure 383: Manichean_Outlook
Figure 384: Protectionism
Figure 385: Left_Populism
Figure 386: Populism (alphabetic)
Figure 387: Sovereignty_of_the_People
Figure 388: Anti_Pluralism
Figure 389: Anti_Elitism
Figure 390: Representative_Gap
Figure 391: Mistrust_of_Experts
Figure 392: Manichean_Outlook
Figure 393: Protectionism
Figure 394: Left_Populism



5.3 Political Psychology

Figure 395: Populism (by magnitude)
Figure 396: Sovereignty_of_the_People
Figure 397: Anti_Pluralism
Figure 398: Anti_Elitism
Figure 399: Representative_Gap
Figure 400: Mistrust_of_Experts
Figure 401: Manichean_Outlook
Figure 402: Protectionism
Figure 403: Left_Populism
Figure 404: Populism (alphabetic)
Figure 405: Sovereignty_of_the_People
Figure 406: Anti_Pluralism
Figure 407: Anti_Elitism
Figure 408: Representative_Gap
Figure 409: Mistrust_of_Experts
Figure 410: Manichean_Outlook
Figure 411: Protectionism
Figure 412: Left_Populism

5.4 Social Justice Concerns, Empathy, and Prejudice

Figure 413: Populism (by magnitude)
Figure 414: Sovereignty_of_the_People
Figure 415: Anti_Pluralism
Figure 416: Anti_Elitism
Figure 417: Representative_Gap
Figure 418: Mistrust_of_Experts
Figure 419: Manichean_Outlook
Figure 420: Protectionism
Figure 421: Left_Populism
Figure 422: Populism (alphabetic)
Figure 423: Sovereignty_of_the_People
Figure 424: Anti_Pluralism
Figure 425: Anti_Elitism
Figure 426: Representative_Gap
Figure 427: Mistrust_of_Experts
Figure 428: Manichean_Outlook
Figure 429: Protectionism
Figure 430: Left_Populism



5.5 Values

Figure 431: Populism (by magnitude)
Figure 432: Sovereignty_of_the_People
Figure 433: Anti_Pluralism
Figure 434: Anti_Elitism
Figure 435: Representative_Gap
Figure 436: Mistrust_of_Experts
Figure 437: Manichean_Outlook
Figure 438: Protectionism
Figure 439: Left_Populism
Figure 440: Populism (alphabetic)
Figure 441: Sovereignty_of_the_People
Figure 442: Anti_Pluralism
Figure 443: Anti_Elitism
Figure 444: Representative_Gap
Figure 445: Mistrust_of_Experts
Figure 446: Manichean_Outlook
Figure 447: Protectionism
Figure 448: Left_Populism



5.6 Pot-Pourri

Figure 449: Populism (by magnitude)
Figure 450: Sovereignty_of_the_People
Figure 451: Anti_Pluralism
Figure 452: Anti_Elitism
Figure 453: Representative_Gap
Figure 454: Mistrust_of_Experts
Figure 455: Manichean_Outlook
Figure 456: Protectionism
Figure 457: Left_Populism
Figure 458: Populism (alphabetic)
Figure 459: Sovereignty_of_the_People
Figure 460: Anti_Pluralism
Figure 461: Anti_Elitism
Figure 462: Representative_Gap
Figure 463: Mistrust_of_Experts
Figure 464: Manichean_Outlook
Figure 465: Protectionism
Figure 466: Left_Populism



5.7 Positive and Negative correlates of Populism

Figure 467: Populism (by magnitude)
Figure 468: Sovereignty_of_the_People
Figure 469: Anti_Pluralism
Figure 470: Anti_Elitism
Figure 471: Representative_Gap
Figure 472: Mistrust_of_Experts
Figure 473: Manichean_Outlook
Figure 474: Protectionism
Figure 475: Left_Populism
Figure 476: Populism (alphabetic)
Figure 477: Sovereignty_of_the_People
Figure 478: Anti_Pluralism
Figure 479: Anti_Elitism
Figure 480: Representative_Gap
Figure 481: Mistrust_of_Experts
Figure 482: Manichean_Outlook
Figure 483: Protectionism
Figure 484: Left_Populism
Figure 485: Populism (by magnitude)
Figure 486: Sovereignty_of_the_People
Figure 487: Anti_Pluralism
Figure 488: Anti_Elitism
Figure 489: Representative_Gap
Figure 490: Mistrust_of_Experts
Figure 491: Manichean_Outlook
Figure 492: Protectionism
Figure 493: Left_Populism
Figure 494: Populism (alphabetic)
Figure 495: Sovereignty_of_the_People
Figure 496: Anti_Pluralism
Figure 497: Anti_Elitism
Figure 498: Representative_Gap
Figure 499: Mistrust_of_Experts
Figure 500: Manichean_Outlook
Figure 501: Protectionism
Figure 502: Left_Populism

6 Elastic Net Analysis

Figure 503: Elastic net predicting Populism: Political Psychology
Figure 504: Elastic net predicting Populism: Ideology & Partisanship
Figure 505: Elastic net predicting Populism: Demographics
Figure 506: Elastic net predicting Populism: Attitudes
Figure 507: Elastic net predicting Populism: Everything
Table 81: Elastic Net Summary
Elastic Net R² for predicting Populism
Variable Group # Predictors R²
Political Psychology 5 .435
Ideology & Partisanship 5 .302
Demographics 5 .122
Attitudes 6 .506
Everything 21 .617