Religiosity [2016]

A Politico-Psychological Analysis

Author

The Psychology of Political Behavior Studies (PPBS)

Report generated

March 23, 2026

1 Study Characteristics

1.1 Items: Religiosity

1.2 Sample

N=1500

To conduct a exploratory and a confirmatory large surveys during the general election, we hired a professional survey firm (SSI, a US-based market research company that recruits participants from a panel of 7,139,027 American citizens; more information can be found at www.surveysampling.com (now https://www.dynata.com/) to recruit a nationally representative sample of 1,500 Americans (50.7% women) who completed study materials during the general election from August 16-September 9, 2016. (Information about sampling and exclusion criteria is included in the Supplement). The age distribution was as follows: 18-24 (12.9%), 25-34 (17.6%), 35-44 (17.5%), 45-54 (19.5%), 55-65 (15.6%) and older than 65 (16.9%). The ethnic breakdown was: White/European American (82.5%), Black/African American (7.7%), Latino (5.9%) and “Other” (4.0%). Concerning religion, 67.6% identified as Christian, 17.1% as religiously affiliated but not Christian, and 15.3% as Atheist/Agnostic. With respect to education 35.1% indicated “high school only or lower,” 31.4 % indicated “some college,” and 33.6% indicated having received a “Bachelor” or “Graduate” degree. 2424 participants were directed to the survey, 1885 of which finished the survey (attrition rate 22%).

We followed recommendations to minimize the problem of careless responding in online studies. Specifically, we employed 10 random attention questions and time controls to check for data quality. There were 385 participants who failed more than one attention check or finished the survey in under ~22 minutes and were therefore excluded from the sample. For the 1500 participants who successfully finished the survey, completion time was 67 minutes on average (MD: 51min).

2 Descriptives

2.1 Means, SD, Range, & SE

Table 1: Descriptives

Descriptives for Religiosity
	n	mean	sd	median	min	max	range	se
PP_Rel_1	1500	5.15	2.79	5	1	9	8	0.07

2.2 Response Distribution

Figure 1: Proportion of each response categories for Religiosity Items

Figure 2: Distribution of reponses for Religiosity Items

3 Demographics

3.1 Social Class

Note on the Raincloud Plots

Statistical summary (top): Welch’s t-test (or ANOVA) results, effect size, confidence intervals, p-values, and sample sizes are shown above each plot.
Bayesian analysis (bottom): Log Bayes factor and credible intervals are reported below each plot.

Table 2: Religiosity as grouped by SES

SES	N	Mean	SD
Poor	38	0.07	1.05
Lower Middle Class	298	0.00	1.00
Middle Middle Class	679	0.00	1.01
Upper Middle Class	395	0.01	1.00
Rich	90	-0.10	0.90

3.2 Gender

Figure 5: Religiosity as grouped by Gender

Figure 6: Raincloud Plots showing Religiosity grouped by Gender

Table 3: Religiosity as grouped by Gender

Religiosity as grouped by Gender
Gender	N	Mean	SD
Male	740	-0.01	1.01
Female	760	0.01	0.99

3.3 Age

Figure 8: Raincloud Plots showing Religiosity grouped by Age

Table 4: Religiosity as grouped by Age

Religiosity as grouped by Age
Age	N	Mean	SD
18-24 years	193	-0.24	0.99
25-34 years	264	-0.21	1.02
35-44 years	263	-0.08	0.97
45-54 years	292	0.10	1.01
55-64 years	234	0.17	0.95
65+	254	0.22	0.97

3.4 Education

Figure 9: Religiosity as grouped by Education

Figure 10: Raincloud Plots showing Religiosity grouped by Education

Table 5: Religiosity as grouped by Education

Education	N	Mean	SD
Less than High School	51	-0.07	1.03
High School	475	-0.04	0.99
Some College	471	0.09	1.02
Bachelor	310	0.00	0.98
Graduate	193	-0.11	0.99

3.5 Income Levels

Figure 11: Religiosity as grouped by Income Levels

Figure 12: Raincloud Plots showing Religiosity grouped by Income Levels

Table 6: Religiosity as grouped by Income Levels

Religiosity as grouped by Income Levels
Income Levels	N	Mean	SD
$15,000-$24,999	180	-0.08	0.98
$150,000 +	95	-0.03	0.99
$35,000-$49,999	227	-0.02	1.00
$50,000-$74,999	292	-0.02	1.02
$100,000-$149,999	160	0.00	1.00
$25,000-$34,999	176	0.02	0.99
Less than $15,000	178	0.05	1.04
$75,000-$99,999	192	0.07	0.97

3.6 Ethnicity

Figure 13: Religiosity as grouped by Ethnicity

Note on the Okabe-Ito color palette. The Okabe-Ito color palette (seen above) is a set of colorblind-friendly categorical colors available in R. We are using this palette for graphs with non-ordered variables (e.g., groups, categories) for accessibility.

Figure 14: Raincloud Plots showing Religiosity grouped by Ethnicity

Table 7: Religiosity as grouped by Ethnicity

Religiosity as grouped by Ethnicity
Ethnicity	N	Mean	SD
Caucasian/European origin	1237	0.01	1.01
Black/African American	115	0.12	0.94
Latino	88	-0.12	0.93
Asian/Pacific Islander	29	-0.40	0.94
Native American	13	-0.22	1.10
Other	18	0.07	1.02

3.7 Occupation

Figure 15: Religiosity as grouped by Occupation

Figure 16: Raincloud Plots showing Religiosity grouped by Occupation

Table 8: Religiosity as grouped by Occupation

Religiosity as grouped by Occupation
Occupation	N	Mean	SD
Employed	768	-0.07	0.98
Retired	268	0.24	0.97
Unemployed	146	-0.10	1.05
Parent	104	0.10	1.00
Disabled	98	0.12	1.01
Student	85	-0.15	1.03
Full-time caregiver	31	-0.06	1.02

3.8 Area

Figure 17: Religiosity as grouped by Area

Figure 18: Raincloud Plots showing Religiosity grouped by Area

Table 9: Religiosity as grouped by Area

Religiosity as grouped by Area
Area	N	Mean	SD
Urban	955	-0.07	1.00
Rural	545	0.13	0.98

3.9 Religious Affiliation

Figure 19: Religiosity as grouped by Religious Affiliation

Figure 20: Raincloud Plots showing Religiosity grouped by Religious Affiliation

Table 10: Religiosity as grouped by Religion

Religiosity as grouped by Religious Affiliation
Religious Affiliation	N	Mean	SD
Christian	1014	0.42	0.80
Muslim	9	0.03	0.78
Jewish	52	-0.49	0.81
Atheist/Agnostic	230	-1.35	0.31
Not listed, No religion	195	-0.47	0.81

3.10 Section Summary

	Religiosity
Predictors	Estimates	CI	p
(Intercept)	4.73	4.14 – 5.32	<.001
Age	0.33	0.24 – 0.42	<.001
Income	-0.03	-0.11 – 0.05	.474
Education	-0.09	-0.24 – 0.06	.231
Gender (Male)	-0.24	-0.52 – 0.04	.096
Observations	1500
R² / R² adjusted	.034 / .032

4 Political Behavior

4.1 Political Orientation

Figure 22: Political Orientation (Controlled for Demographics)

Note. The y-axis shows residuals after regressing the outcome on demographics (Age, Income, Education, Gender). This illustrates how much the focal construct explains beyond demographic factors.

Figure 23: Correlation Matrix - Political Orientation

Table 11: Models of Political Orientation (SPRI) & Religiosity

	Political Orientation			Social Political Orientation			Economic Political Orientation			Composite Political Orientation
Predictors	Estimates	CI	p	Estimates	CI	p	Estimates	CI	p	Estimates	CI	p
(Intercept)	5.31	5.19 – 5.42	<.001	4.93	4.81 – 5.05	<.001	5.48	5.35 – 5.60	<.001	5.24	5.13 – 5.35	<.001
Religiosity	1.13	1.02 – 1.24	<.001	1.46	1.34 – 1.58	<.001	0.92	0.80 – 1.05	<.001	1.17	1.06 – 1.28	<.001
Observations	1500			1500			1500			1500
R² / R² adjusted	.212 / .212			.280 / .280			.122 / .122			.233 / .233

Table 12: Models of Ideology and Religiosity with Controls

	Political Orientation			Social Political Orientation			Economic Political Orientation			Composite Political Orientation
Predictors	Estimates	CI	p	Estimates	CI	p	Estimates	CI	p	Estimates	CI	p
(Intercept)	1.54	1.05 – 2.03	<.001	0.93	0.41 – 1.46	.001	1.38	0.83 – 1.93	<.001	1.29	0.81 – 1.76	<.001
Religiosity	0.39	0.35 – 0.43	<.001	0.51	0.46 – 0.55	<.001	0.31	0.27 – 0.35	<.001	0.40	0.36 – 0.44	<.001
Age	0.19	0.12 – 0.26	<.001	0.19	0.11 – 0.26	<.001	0.20	0.12 – 0.28	<.001	0.19	0.12 – 0.26	<.001
Income	0.09	0.03 – 0.15	.004	-0.00	-0.07 – 0.06	.971	0.13	0.07 – 0.20	<.001	0.07	0.02 – 0.13	.014
Education	-0.15	-0.27 – -0.04	.008	-0.20	-0.32 – -0.07	.002	0.00	-0.12 – 0.13	.951	-0.12	-0.23 – -0.01	.039
Gender (Male)	0.80	0.59 – 1.02	<.001	0.90	0.66 – 1.13	<.001	0.80	0.55 – 1.04	<.001	0.83	0.62 – 1.04	<.001
Observations	1500			1500			1500			1500
R² / R² adjusted	.269 / .266			.326 / .324			.188 / .186			.293 / .290

4.2 Partisanship

Table 13: Mean Religiosity by Party Identity

Mean Religiosity by Party Identity (raw means)
Party Identity	N	Mean	SD
Strong Democrat	351	4.28	2.76
Democrat	223	4.50	2.53
Leaning Democrat	124	3.90	2.65
Independent	84	3.92	2.67
Leaning Republican	111	5.55	2.75
Republican	255	5.93	2.50
Strong Republican	318	6.71	2.39

Table 14: Model of Religiosity & Party Identity (7-point)

	Religiosity
Predictors	Estimates	CI	p
(Intercept)	3.57	3.31 – 3.84	<.001
Party Identity (7-point)	0.40	0.35 – 0.46	<.001
Observations	1466
R² / R² adjusted	.117 / .116

Table 15: Model of Religiosity & Party Identity with Controls

	Religiosity
Predictors	Estimates	CI	p
(Intercept)	4.02	3.45 – 4.60	<.001
Party Identity (7-point)	0.40	0.34 – 0.46	<.001
Age	0.23	0.14 – 0.31	<.001
Income	-0.07	-0.14 – 0.01	.081
Education	-0.02	-0.17 – 0.12	.732
Gender (Male)	-0.60	-0.87 – -0.32	<.001
Observations	1466
R² / R² adjusted	.141 / .138

4.3 Religiosity

Figure 26: Religiosity (Controlled for Demographics)

Note. The y-axis shows residuals after regressing the outcome on demographics (Age, Income, Education, Gender). This illustrates how much the focal construct explains beyond demographic factors.

Figure 27: Religiosity - Correlation Matrix

4.4 Candidate Preferences

Table 16: Candidate Preferences (centered)

Candidate Preferences and Religiosity [centered]
Candidate Preference	N	Mean	SD
Donald Trump	444	0.30	0.93
Hillary Clinton	371	-0.15	0.93
Bernie Sanders	362	-0.51	0.94
Ted Cruz	122	0.53	0.94
Jeb Bush	83	0.37	0.87
Gary Johnson	68	-0.11	1.00
Rand Paul	44	0.38	0.96

Table 17: Candidate Preferences (raw means)

Candidate Preferences and Religiosity [raw means]
Candidate Preferences	N	Mean	SD	Range
Donald Trump	444	5.99	2.60	1-9
Hillary Clinton	371	4.73	2.60	1-9
Bernie Sanders	362	3.73	2.62	1-9
Ted Cruz	122	6.63	2.61	1-9
Jeb Bush	83	6.19	2.43	1-9
Gary Johnson	68	4.84	2.79	1-9
Rand Paul	44	6.20	2.66	1-9

4.5 Party Preferences

Table 18: Party Preferences (centered)

Party Preferences and Religiosity [centered]
Party Preference	N	Mean	SD
Green Party	40	-0.64	0.89
Libertarian Party	100	-0.32	1.00
Democratic Party	560	-0.31	0.96
None	120	-0.23	0.95
Don't know	90	-0.12	0.93
Tea Party	68	0.39	0.93
Republican Party	508	0.45	0.88
Constitution Party	14	0.95	0.62

Table 19: Party Preferences (raw means)

Party Preferences and Religiosity [raw means]
Party Preferences	N	Mean	SD	Range
Green Party	40	3.38	2.49	1-9
Libertarian Party	100	4.26	2.79	1-9
Democratic Party	560	4.29	2.68	1-9
None	120	4.52	2.64	1-9
Don't know	90	4.81	2.58	1-9
Tea Party	68	6.24	2.59	1-9
Republican Party	508	6.39	2.46	1-9
Constitution Party	14	7.79	1.72	1-9

4.6 Voting Preferences

Table 20: Voting Preferences

	2016 [Trump vs. Clinton]			2016 [Trump vs. Clinton] + Supporters			2012 [Romney vs. Obama]			2008 [McCain vs. Obama]
Predictors	Odds Ratios	CI	p	Odds Ratios	CI	p	Odds Ratios	CI	p	Odds Ratios	CI	p
(Intercept)	4.09	3.10 – 5.43	<.001	3.81	2.92 – 5.01	<.001	4.81	3.67 – 6.36	<.001	4.55	3.47 – 6.03	<.001
Religiosity	0.77	0.73 – 0.80	<.001	0.77	0.74 – 0.81	<.001	0.76	0.73 – 0.80	<.001	0.78	0.74 – 0.81	<.001
Observations	1103			1148			1236			1206
R² Tjur	.118			.112			.119			.107

Figure 30: Logistic Regression, Religiosity & Voting Preferences

4.7 Voting & Party Identity

Table 21: Party Identity & Voting

	Donald Trump	Hilary Clinton
Strong Republican	282	7
Republican	166	24
Leaning Republican	58	7
Independent	17	16
Leaning Democrat	10	65
Democrat	27	129
Strong Democrat	4	323

Figure 32: Predicted, Voting & Party Identity

Table 22: Supporters

	2016 [Clinton vs. Trump]			2016 [Trump vs. Clinton] + Supporters
Predictors	Odds Ratios	CI	p	Odds Ratios	CI	p
(Intercept)	21.64	12.91 – 37.80	<.001	16.55	10.35 – 27.37	<.001
Party Identity (dichotomous)	0.01	0.00 – 0.01	<.001
Party Identity (dichotomous)	0.91	0.83 – 0.99	.030	0.93	0.85 – 1.01	.067
Religiosity				0.01	0.00 – 0.01	<.001
Observations	1103			1148
R² Tjur	.748			.721

4.8 Likeability

Note. The y-axis shows residuals after regressing the outcome on demographics (Age, Income, Education, Gender). This illustrates how much the focal construct explains beyond demographic factors.