PPBS

Black Lives Matter [2018]

A Politico-Psychological Analysis

Author

The Psychology of Political Behavior Studies (PPBS)

Report generated

March 23, 2026

1 Study Characteristics

1.1 Items: Black Lives Matter

1.2 Sample

N=TBD

Sample description for the 2018 PPBS CINT Post-election study to be added.

2 Descriptives

2.1 Means, SD, Range, & SE

Table 1: Descriptives
Descriptives for Black Lives Matter
n mean sd median min max range se
SM_BLM 2759 54.09 33.94 54 0 100 100 0.65

2.2 Response Distribution

Figure 1: Proportion of each response categories for Black Lives Matter Items
Figure 2: Distribution of reponses for Black Lives Matter Items

3 Demographics

3.1 Social Class

Figure 3: Black Lives Matter as grouped by SES
Figure 4: Raincloud Plots showing Black Lives Matter grouped by Social Class

Note on the Raincloud Plots

  • Statistical summary (top): Welch’s t-test (or ANOVA) results, effect size, confidence intervals, p-values, and sample sizes are shown above each plot.
  • Bayesian analysis (bottom): Log Bayes factor and credible intervals are reported below each plot.
Table 2: Black Lives Matter as grouped by SES
SES N Mean SD
Poor 116 0.26 0.92
Lower Middle Class 470 0.13 1.00
Middle Middle Class 1249 -0.08 1.02
Upper Middle Class 924 0.01 0.97

3.2 Gender

Figure 5: Black Lives Matter as grouped by Gender
Figure 6: Raincloud Plots showing Black Lives Matter grouped by Gender
Table 3: Black Lives Matter as grouped by Gender
Black Lives Matter as grouped by Gender
Gender N Mean SD
Male 1389 -0.14 1.01
Female 1370 0.14 0.97

3.3 Age

Figure 7: Black Lives Matter as grouped by Age
Figure 8: Raincloud Plots showing Black Lives Matter grouped by Age
Table 4: Black Lives Matter as grouped by Age
Black Lives Matter as grouped by Age
Age N Mean SD
18-24 years 295 0.38 0.92
25-34 years 494 0.20 0.99
35-44 years 451 0.04 1.01
45-54 years 458 -0.19 0.99
55-64 years 470 -0.09 1.00
NA 591 -0.17 0.97

3.4 Education

Figure 9: Black Lives Matter as grouped by Education
Figure 10: Raincloud Plots showing Black Lives Matter grouped by Education
Table 5: Black Lives Matter as grouped by Education
Education N Mean SD
Less than High School 312 0.03 1.03
High School 767 -0.04 1.00
Some College 779 -0.08 1.01
Bachelor or higher 901 0.10 0.98

3.5 Income Levels

Figure 11: Black Lives Matter as grouped by Income Levels
Figure 12: Raincloud Plots showing Black Lives Matter grouped by Income Levels
Table 6: Black Lives Matter as grouped by Income Levels
Black Lives Matter as grouped by Income Levels
Income Levels N Mean SD
$50,000-$74,999 495 -0.12 1.03
$150,000 + 329 -0.12 0.97
$35,000-$49,999 351 -0.04 1.02
$100,000-$149,999 384 -0.03 0.98
$75,000-$99,999 355 -0.01 0.99
$25,000-$34,999 260 0.04 0.98
$15,000-$24,999 275 0.18 0.95
Less than $15,000 310 0.23 1.00

3.6 Ethnicity

Figure 13: Black Lives Matter as grouped by Ethnicity

Note on the Okabe-Ito color palette. The Okabe-Ito color palette (seen above) is a set of colorblind-friendly categorical colors available in R. We are using this palette for graphs with non-ordered variables (e.g., groups, categories) for accessibility.

Figure 14: Raincloud Plots showing Black Lives Matter grouped by Ethnicity
Table 7: Black Lives Matter as grouped by Ethnicity
Black Lives Matter as grouped by Ethnicity
Ethnicity N Mean SD
Black/African American 501 0.73 0.78
Asian/Pacific Islander 87 -0.01 0.86
Native American 14 -0.06 0.98
Other 35 0.32 1.09
NA 1976 -0.21 0.96
NA 140 0.21 0.99
NA 6 0.39 0.53

3.7 Occupation

Figure 15: Black Lives Matter as grouped by Occupation
Figure 16: Raincloud Plots showing Black Lives Matter grouped by Occupation
Table 8: Black Lives Matter as grouped by Occupation
Black Lives Matter as grouped by Occupation
Occupation N Mean SD
Employed 1334 -0.01 1.00
Retired 634 -0.15 0.99
Unemployed 273 0.10 0.96
Parent 126 0.02 1.01
Disabled 201 0.13 1.01
Student 153 0.32 0.97
Full-time caregiver 38 -0.05 0.94

3.8 Area

Figure 17: Black Lives Matter as grouped by Area
Figure 18: Raincloud Plots showing Black Lives Matter grouped by Area
Table 9: Black Lives Matter as grouped by Area
Black Lives Matter as grouped by Area
Area N Mean SD
Urban 723 0.32 0.96
Rural 658 -0.27 1.00
NA 1378 -0.04 0.98

3.9 Religious Affiliation

Figure 19: Black Lives Matter as grouped by Religious Affiliation
Figure 20: Raincloud Plots showing Black Lives Matter grouped by Religious Affiliation
Table 10: Black Lives Matter as grouped by Religion
Black Lives Matter as grouped by Religious Affiliation
Religious Affiliation N Mean SD
Catholic 573 -0.09 0.94
Protestant 1237 -0.08 1.02
Jewish 72 0.39 0.83
Muslim 22 0.66 0.87
Atheist/Agnostic 420 0.17 1.02
Don't know / refused 435 0.07 0.99

3.10 Section Summary

  Black Lives Matter
Predictors Estimates CI p
(Intercept) 79.65 73.81 – 85.49 <.001
Age -3.60 -4.34 – -2.85 <.001
Income -1.92 -2.53 – -1.32 <.001
Education 3.68 2.35 – 5.02 <.001
Gender (Male) -8.92 -11.38 – -6.46 <.001
Observations 2759
R2 / R2 adjusted .065 / .064

4 Political Behavior

4.1 Political Orientation

Figure 21: Political Orientation
Figure 22: Political Orientation (Controlled for Demographics)

Note. The y-axis shows residuals after regressing the outcome on demographics (Age, Income, Education, Gender). This illustrates how much the focal construct explains beyond demographic factors.

Figure 23: Correlation Matrix - Political Orientation
Table 11: Models of Political Orientation (SPRI) & Black Lives Matter
  Political Orientation Social Political Orientation Economic Political Orientation
Predictors Estimates CI p Estimates CI p Estimates CI p
(Intercept) 51.52 50.56 – 52.48 <.001 49.15 48.09 – 50.20 <.001 54.08 53.08 – 55.07 <.001
Black Lives Matter -14.94 -15.90 – -13.97 <.001 -15.13 -16.19 – -14.07 <.001 -15.34 -16.34 – -14.35 <.001
Observations 2759 2759 2759
R2 / R2 adjusted .251 / .251 .221 / .221 .250 / .249
Table 12: Models of Ideology and Black Lives Matter with Controls
  Political Orientation Social Political Orientation Economic Political Orientation
Predictors Estimates CI p Estimates CI p Estimates CI p
(Intercept) 72.38 67.25 – 77.50 <.001 73.90 68.29 – 79.51 <.001 69.58 64.30 – 74.86 <.001
Black Lives Matter -0.42 -0.45 – -0.39 <.001 -0.43 -0.46 – -0.39 <.001 -0.43 -0.46 – -0.40 <.001
Age 1.24 0.65 – 1.83 <.001 1.81 1.17 – 2.46 <.001 1.18 0.57 – 1.79 <.001
Income 0.80 0.32 – 1.27 .001 0.37 -0.15 – 0.89 .163 1.16 0.67 – 1.65 <.001
Education -2.08 -3.13 – -1.04 <.001 -3.38 -4.53 – -2.23 <.001 -1.03 -2.11 – 0.05 .062
Gender (Male) -0.34 -2.28 – 1.60 .728 -0.51 -2.64 – 1.61 .636 0.58 -1.42 – 2.58 .567
Observations 2759 2759 2759
R2 / R2 adjusted .260 / .258 .237 / .235 .259 / .258

4.2 Partisanship

Figure 24: Party Identity
Table 13: Mean Black Lives Matter by Party Identity
Mean Black Lives Matter by Party Identity (raw means)
Party Identity N Mean SD
Democrat 1100 73.66 26.37
Republican 819 32.58 29.51
Don't Know/Other 104 57.14 31.11
Independent/Moderate 736 48.33 32.47
Table 14: Model of Black Lives Matter & Party Identity (7-point)
  Black Lives Matter
Predictors Estimates CI p
(Intercept) 94.20 91.56 – 96.84 <.001
Party Identity (7-point) -10.27 -10.90 – -9.64 <.001
Observations 1919
R2 / R2 adjusted .349 / .349
Table 15: Model of Black Lives Matter & Party Identity with Controls
  Black Lives Matter
Predictors Estimates CI p
(Intercept) 105.35 99.13 – 111.56 <.001
Party Identity (7-point) -9.70 -10.34 – -9.06 <.001
Age -2.20 -2.95 – -1.45 <.001
Income -1.00 -1.61 – -0.38 .002
Education 2.46 1.13 – 3.79 <.001
Gender (Male) -4.77 -7.24 – -2.30 <.001
Observations 1919
R2 / R2 adjusted .369 / .368

4.3 Religiosity

Figure 25: Religiosity
Figure 26: Religiosity (Controlled for Demographics)

Note. The y-axis shows residuals after regressing the outcome on demographics (Age, Income, Education, Gender). This illustrates how much the focal construct explains beyond demographic factors.

Figure 27: Religiosity - Correlation Matrix

4.4 Candidate Preferences

Figure 28: Candidate Preferences
Table 16: Candidate Preferences (centered)
Candidate Preferences and Black Lives Matter [centered]
Candidate Preference N Mean SD
Donald Trump 770 -0.68 0.86
Hillary Clinton 714 0.58 0.79
Bernie Sanders 592 0.50 0.80
None 243 0.01 0.84
John Kasich 88 -0.33 0.82
Ted Cruz 83 -0.76 0.92
Ben Carson 82 -0.58 0.90
Jeb Bush 44 -0.30 0.87
Gary Johnson 43 -0.23 0.72
Marco Rubio 38 -0.27 0.95
Jill Stein 32 0.27 1.00
Rand Paul 30 -0.85 0.77
Table 17: Candidate Preferences (raw means)
Candidate Preferences and Black Lives Matter [raw means]
Candidate Preferences N Mean SD Range
Donald Trump 770 30.97 29.15 1-11
Hillary Clinton 714 73.72 26.84 1-11
Bernie Sanders 592 71.19 27.21 1-11
None 243 54.45 28.41 1-11
John Kasich 88 42.88 27.94 1-11
Ted Cruz 83 28.22 31.34 1-11
Ben Carson 82 34.50 30.53 1-11
Jeb Bush 44 44.02 29.62 1-11
Gary Johnson 43 46.23 24.47 1-11
Marco Rubio 38 45.00 32.34 1-11
Jill Stein 32 63.34 33.81 1-11
Rand Paul 30 25.20 26.19 1-11

4.5 Party Preferences

Figure 29: Party Preferences
Table 18: Party Preferences (centered)
Party Preferences and Black Lives Matter [centered]
Party Preference N Mean SD
Tea Party 71 -1.01 0.85
Republican Party 898 -0.60 0.89
Libertarian Party 150 -0.35 0.94
None 321 -0.14 0.91
Democrat Party 1251 0.53 0.78
Green Party 68 0.57 0.93
Table 19: Party Preferences (raw means)
Party Preferences and Black Lives Matter [raw means]
Party Preferences N Mean SD Range
Tea Party 71 19.92 28.93 1-11
Republican Party 898 33.79 30.04 1-11
Libertarian Party 150 42.27 31.78 1-11
None 321 49.21 30.78 1-11
Democrat Party 1251 72.20 26.40 1-11
Green Party 68 73.56 31.46 1-11

4.6 Voting Preferences

Table 20: Voting Preferences
  2016 [Trump vs. Clinton] 2012 [Romney vs. Obama] 2008 [McCain vs. Obama]
Predictors Odds Ratios CI p Odds Ratios CI p Odds Ratios CI p
(Intercept) 0.30 0.26 – 0.36 <.001 0.56 0.48 – 0.66 <.001 0.59 0.51 – 0.68 <.001
Black Lives Matter 1.04 1.03 – 1.04 <.001 1.03 1.03 – 1.04 <.001 1.03 1.03 – 1.03 <.001
Observations 2759 2759 2759
R2 Tjur .190 .088 .134
Figure 30: Logistic Regression, Black Lives Matter & Voting Preferences

4.7 Voting & Party Identity

Table 21
Table 22: Supporters

4.8 Likeability

5 Politico-Psychological correlates of Black Lives Matter


5.1 Ideologies and Partisanship

Figure 31: Correlates - Ideologies and Partisanship (by magnitude)
Figure 32: Correlates - Ideologies and Partisanship (alphabetic)

5.2 Populism, Nationalism, Nativism, and Patriotism

Figure 33: Correlates - Populism, Nationalism, Nativism, and Patriotism (by magnitude)
Figure 34: Correlates - Populism, Nationalism, Nativism, and Patriotism (alphabetic)

5.3 Political Psychology

Figure 35: Correlates - Political Psychology (by magnitude)
Figure 36: Correlates - Political Psychology (alphabetic)



5.4 Positive and Negative correlates of Black Lives Matter

Figure 37: Correlates - Positive associations
Figure 38: Correlates - Positive associations (alphabetic)
Figure 39: Correlates - Negative associations
Figure 40: Correlates - Negative associations (alphabetic)

6 Elastic Net Analysis

Figure 41: Elastic net predicting Black Lives Matter: Political Psychology
Figure 42: Elastic net predicting Black Lives Matter: Ideology & Partisanship
Figure 43: Elastic net predicting Black Lives Matter: Demographics
Figure 44: Elastic net predicting Black Lives Matter: Attitudes
Figure 45: Elastic net predicting Black Lives Matter: Everything
Table 23: Elastic Net Summary
Elastic Net R² for predicting Black Lives Matter
Variable Group # Predictors R²
Political Psychology 5 .311
Ideology & Partisanship 5 .354
Demographics 5 .100
Attitudes 4 .342
Everything 19 .469