Right-Wing Authoritarianism [2018]
A Politico-Psychological Analysis
1 Study Characteristics
1.2 Sample
N=TBD
Sample description for the 2018 PPBS CINT Post-election study to be added.
2 Descriptives
2.1 Means, SD, Range, & SE
| mean | sd | median | se | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggression_mean | 5.49 | 1.75 | 5.50 | 0.03 |
| Submission_mean | 4.55 | 1.62 | 4.75 | 0.03 |
| Conventionalism_mean | 5.12 | 2.00 | 5.00 | 0.04 |
| RWA | 5.05 | 1.57 | 5.08 | 0.03 |
| Note: | ||||
| n = 2759, min = 1, max = 9 |
| mean | sd | median | se | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggression1 | 4.87 | 2.57 | 5.00 | 0.05 |
| Aggression2 | 5.43 | 2.69 | 5.00 | 0.05 |
| Aggression3 | 6.05 | 2.54 | 6.00 | 0.05 |
| Aggression4 | 5.60 | 2.23 | 5.00 | 0.04 |
| Submission1 | 5.75 | 2.43 | 6.00 | 0.05 |
| Submission2 | 5.56 | 2.34 | 6.00 | 0.04 |
| Submission3 | 2.57 | 2.07 | 2.00 | 0.04 |
| Submission4 | 4.33 | 2.35 | 4.00 | 0.04 |
| Conventionalism1 | 5.16 | 2.52 | 5.00 | 0.05 |
| Conventionalism2 | 5.74 | 2.20 | 6.00 | 0.04 |
| Conventionalism3 | 5.35 | 2.71 | 5.00 | 0.05 |
| Conventionalism4 | 4.24 | 2.87 | 4.00 | 0.05 |
| RWA | 5.05 | 1.57 | 5.08 | 0.03 |
| Aggression_mean | 5.49 | 1.75 | 5.50 | 0.03 |
| Submission_mean | 4.55 | 1.62 | 4.75 | 0.03 |
| Conventionalism_mean | 5.12 | 2.00 | 5.00 | 0.04 |
| Note: | ||||
| All items: n = 2759, min = 1, max = 9. RWA: min = 1, max = 9. Aggression_mean: min = 1, max = 9. Submission_mean: min = 1, max = 9. Conventionalism_mean: min = 1, max = 9 |
2.2 Response Distribution
2.3 Correlations
2.3.1 Correlation Plots
Note. Upper triangle shows Spearman’s rank-order correlations. *** p < .001, ** p < .01, * p < .05.
2.3.2 PIDF
Note. Upper triangle shows Spearman’s rank-order correlations by party identity. *** p < .001, ** p < .01, * p < .05.
2.3.3 Correlation Matrix
3 Demographics
3.2 Gender
| Gender | N | Mean | SD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Female | 1370 | 0.02 | 0.97 |
| Male | 1389 | -0.02 | 1.03 |
| Gender | N | Mean | SD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Female | 1370 | -0.05 | 1.01 |
| Male | 1389 | 0.05 | 0.99 |
| Gender | N | Mean | SD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Female | 1370 | -0.02 | 1 |
| Male | 1389 | 0.02 | 1 |
3.3 Age
| Age | N | Mean | SD |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18-24 years | 295 | -0.27 | 0.75 |
| 25-34 years | 494 | -0.21 | 0.92 |
| 35-44 years | 451 | -0.12 | 0.94 |
| 45-54 years | 458 | 0.13 | 0.94 |
| 55-64 years | 470 | 0.17 | 1.07 |
| NA | 591 | 0.16 | 1.13 |
| Age | N | Mean | SD |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18-24 years | 295 | -0.32 | 1.00 |
| 25-34 years | 494 | -0.18 | 1.05 |
| 35-44 years | 451 | -0.07 | 1.00 |
| 45-54 years | 458 | 0.15 | 0.91 |
| 55-64 years | 470 | 0.13 | 0.95 |
| NA | 591 | 0.15 | 1.00 |
| Age | N | Mean | SD |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18-24 years | 295 | -0.41 | 0.85 |
| 25-34 years | 494 | -0.29 | 0.95 |
| 35-44 years | 451 | -0.09 | 0.98 |
| 45-54 years | 458 | 0.14 | 0.93 |
| 55-64 years | 470 | 0.17 | 1.00 |
| NA | 591 | 0.27 | 1.04 |
3.4 Education
| Education | N | Mean | SD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Less than High School | 312 | -0.02 | 0.87 |
| High School | 767 | 0.29 | 0.87 |
| Some College | 779 | 0.09 | 0.96 |
| Bachelor or higher | 901 | -0.32 | 1.09 |
| Education | N | Mean | SD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Less than High School | 312 | 0.08 | 0.97 |
| High School | 767 | 0.28 | 0.90 |
| Some College | 779 | 0.03 | 0.99 |
| Bachelor or higher | 901 | -0.30 | 1.03 |
| Education | N | Mean | SD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Less than High School | 312 | -0.08 | 0.93 |
| High School | 767 | 0.27 | 0.93 |
| Some College | 779 | 0.03 | 1.00 |
| Bachelor or higher | 901 | -0.22 | 1.02 |
3.5 Income Levels
| Income Levels | N | Mean | SD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Less than $15,000 | 310 | -0.08 | 0.90 |
| $15,000-$24,999 | 275 | -0.09 | 0.99 |
| $25,000-$34,999 | 260 | 0.06 | 0.95 |
| $35,000-$49,999 | 351 | 0.08 | 1.01 |
| $50,000-$74,999 | 495 | 0.13 | 1.00 |
| $75,000-$99,999 | 355 | 0.05 | 0.99 |
| $100,000-$149,999 | 384 | -0.10 | 1.05 |
| $150,000 + | 329 | -0.11 | 1.05 |
| Income Levels | N | Mean | SD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Less than $15,000 | 310 | 0.01 | 1.00 |
| $15,000-$24,999 | 275 | -0.02 | 1.05 |
| $25,000-$34,999 | 260 | 0.16 | 0.95 |
| $35,000-$49,999 | 351 | 0.11 | 0.97 |
| $50,000-$74,999 | 495 | 0.12 | 0.98 |
| $75,000-$99,999 | 355 | -0.02 | 1.00 |
| $100,000-$149,999 | 384 | -0.19 | 1.02 |
| $150,000 + | 329 | -0.17 | 0.98 |
| Income Levels | N | Mean | SD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Less than $15,000 | 310 | -0.07 | 1.01 |
| $15,000-$24,999 | 275 | -0.02 | 1.01 |
| $25,000-$34,999 | 260 | 0.11 | 0.98 |
| $35,000-$49,999 | 351 | 0.11 | 0.96 |
| $50,000-$74,999 | 495 | 0.15 | 1.03 |
| $75,000-$99,999 | 355 | -0.07 | 0.93 |
| $100,000-$149,999 | 384 | -0.12 | 1.01 |
| $150,000 + | 329 | -0.13 | 1.00 |
3.6 Ethnicity
Note on the Okabe-Ito color palette. The Okabe-Ito color palette (seen above) is a set of colorblind-friendly categorical colors available in R. We are using this palette for graphs with non-ordered variables (e.g., groups, categories) for accessibility.
| Ethnicity | N | Mean | SD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Black/African American | 501 | -0.19 | 0.79 |
| Asian/Pacific Islander | 87 | -0.10 | 0.70 |
| Native American | 14 | -0.11 | 0.79 |
| Other | 35 | -0.66 | 1.11 |
| NA | 1976 | 0.08 | 1.06 |
| NA | 140 | -0.22 | 0.80 |
| NA | 6 | 0.15 | 0.64 |
| Ethnicity | N | Mean | SD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Black/African American | 501 | -0.03 | 0.88 |
| Asian/Pacific Islander | 87 | -0.01 | 0.87 |
| Native American | 14 | -0.04 | 0.91 |
| Other | 35 | -0.64 | 1.39 |
| NA | 1976 | 0.03 | 1.02 |
| NA | 140 | -0.17 | 0.98 |
| NA | 6 | -0.16 | 0.58 |
| Ethnicity | N | Mean | SD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Black/African American | 501 | -0.04 | 0.83 |
| Asian/Pacific Islander | 87 | -0.06 | 0.81 |
| Native American | 14 | 0.18 | 1.08 |
| Other | 35 | -0.81 | 1.05 |
| NA | 1976 | 0.04 | 1.05 |
| NA | 140 | -0.25 | 0.87 |
| NA | 6 | -0.17 | 0.33 |
3.7 Occupation
| Occupation | N | Mean | SD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Employed | 1334 | -0.04 | 0.98 |
| Retired | 634 | 0.16 | 1.12 |
| Unemployed | 273 | -0.08 | 0.90 |
| Parent | 126 | 0.06 | 0.88 |
| Disabled | 201 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Student | 153 | -0.31 | 0.80 |
| Full-time caregiver | 38 | 0.36 | 0.71 |
| Occupation | N | Mean | SD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Employed | 1334 | -0.05 | 1.00 |
| Retired | 634 | 0.15 | 0.99 |
| Unemployed | 273 | 0.00 | 0.98 |
| Parent | 126 | 0.00 | 0.98 |
| Disabled | 201 | 0.06 | 1.03 |
| Student | 153 | -0.41 | 0.96 |
| Full-time caregiver | 38 | 0.41 | 0.94 |
| Occupation | N | Mean | SD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Employed | 1334 | -0.06 | 0.99 |
| Retired | 634 | 0.26 | 1.04 |
| Unemployed | 273 | -0.13 | 0.92 |
| Parent | 126 | 0.04 | 0.97 |
| Disabled | 201 | 0.02 | 1.02 |
| Student | 153 | -0.37 | 0.88 |
| Full-time caregiver | 38 | 0.16 | 0.94 |
3.8 Area
| Area | N | Mean | SD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Urban | 723 | -0.14 | 0.93 |
| Rural | 658 | 0.20 | 1.03 |
| NA | 1378 | -0.02 | 1.01 |
| Area | N | Mean | SD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Urban | 723 | -0.07 | 1.01 |
| Rural | 658 | 0.20 | 0.98 |
| NA | 1378 | -0.06 | 0.99 |
| Area | N | Mean | SD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Urban | 723 | -0.12 | 0.95 |
| Rural | 658 | 0.24 | 1.02 |
| NA | 1378 | -0.05 | 1.00 |
3.9 Religious Affiliation
| Religious Affiliation | N | Mean | SD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Catholic | 573 | 0.10 | 0.93 |
| Protestant | 1237 | 0.23 | 0.93 |
| Jewish | 72 | -0.57 | 1.05 |
| Muslim | 22 | -0.17 | 1.01 |
| Atheist/Agnostic | 420 | -0.63 | 1.09 |
| Don't know / refused | 435 | -0.08 | 0.88 |
| Religious Affiliation | N | Mean | SD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Catholic | 573 | 0.11 | 0.86 |
| Protestant | 1237 | 0.29 | 0.92 |
| Jewish | 72 | -0.69 | 0.95 |
| Muslim | 22 | 0.14 | 0.89 |
| Atheist/Agnostic | 420 | -0.81 | 1.02 |
| Don't know / refused | 435 | -0.09 | 0.91 |
| Religious Affiliation | N | Mean | SD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Catholic | 573 | 0.08 | 0.82 |
| Protestant | 1237 | 0.42 | 0.90 |
| Jewish | 72 | -0.70 | 1.00 |
| Muslim | 22 | 0.11 | 0.76 |
| Atheist/Agnostic | 420 | -0.98 | 0.84 |
| Don't know / refused | 435 | -0.25 | 0.83 |
3.10 Section Summary
| Right-Wing Authoritarianism | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Predictors | Estimates | CI | p |
| (Intercept) | 5.10 | 4.84 – 5.37 | <.001 |
| Age | 0.24 | 0.21 – 0.28 | <.001 |
| Income | 0.02 | -0.01 – 0.05 | .133 |
| Education | -0.38 | -0.44 – -0.32 | <.001 |
| Gender (Male) | 0.00 | -0.11 – 0.12 | .944 |
| Observations | 2759 | ||
| R2 / R2 adjusted | .100 / .099 | ||
4 Political Behavior
4.1 Political Orientation
Correlation with General Conservatism, Economic Conservatism, Social Conservatism
| Political Orientation | Social Political Orientation | Economic Political Orientation | Composite Political Orientation | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predictors | Estimates | CI | p | Estimates | CI | p | Estimates | CI | p | Estimates | CI | p |
| (Intercept) | 51.52 | 50.64 – 52.40 | <.001 | 49.15 | 48.23 – 50.06 | <.001 | 54.08 | 53.11 – 55.04 | <.001 | 51.58 | 50.74 – 52.42 | <.001 |
| Right-Wing Authoritarianism | 18.10 | 17.22 – 18.99 | <.001 | 20.80 | 19.88 – 21.71 | <.001 | 16.59 | 15.62 – 17.55 | <.001 | 18.50 | 17.66 – 19.33 | <.001 |
| Observations | 2759 | 2759 | 2759 | 2759 | ||||||||
| R2 / R2 adjusted | .368 / .368 | .419 / .419 | .292 / .291 | .406 / .405 | ||||||||
| Political Orientation | Social Political Orientation | Economic Political Orientation | Composite Political Orientation | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predictors | Estimates | CI | p | Estimates | CI | p | Estimates | CI | p | Estimates | CI | p |
| (Intercept) | 51.52 | 50.56 – 52.48 | <.001 | 49.15 | 48.12 – 50.17 | <.001 | 54.08 | 53.06 – 55.09 | <.001 | 51.58 | 50.66 – 52.50 | <.001 |
| Aggression | 15.23 | 14.27 – 16.18 | <.001 | 16.69 | 15.67 – 17.72 | <.001 | 14.11 | 13.10 – 15.13 | <.001 | 15.34 | 14.42 – 16.27 | <.001 |
| Observations | 2759 | 2759 | 2759 | 2759 | ||||||||
| R2 / R2 adjusted | .261 / .260 | .270 / .269 | .211 / .211 | .279 / .279 | ||||||||
| Political Orientation | Social Political Orientation | Economic Political Orientation | Composite Political Orientation | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predictors | Estimates | CI | p | Estimates | CI | p | Estimates | CI | p | Estimates | CI | p |
| (Intercept) | 51.52 | 50.56 – 52.48 | <.001 | 49.15 | 48.14 – 50.16 | <.001 | 54.08 | 53.05 – 55.11 | <.001 | 51.58 | 50.66 – 52.50 | <.001 |
| Submission | 14.99 | 14.03 – 15.95 | <.001 | 17.36 | 16.35 – 18.37 | <.001 | 13.53 | 12.50 – 14.56 | <.001 | 15.29 | 14.37 – 16.22 | <.001 |
| Observations | 2759 | 2759 | 2759 | 2759 | ||||||||
| R2 / R2 adjusted | .253 / .252 | .292 / .291 | .194 / .194 | .277 / .277 | ||||||||
| Political Orientation | Social Political Orientation | Economic Political Orientation | Composite Political Orientation | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predictors | Estimates | CI | p | Estimates | CI | p | Estimates | CI | p | Estimates | CI | p |
| (Intercept) | 51.52 | 50.61 – 52.43 | <.001 | 49.15 | 48.21 – 50.08 | <.001 | 54.08 | 53.09 – 55.06 | <.001 | 51.58 | 50.72 – 52.44 | <.001 |
| Conventionalism | 17.11 | 16.20 – 18.03 | <.001 | 20.26 | 19.33 – 21.19 | <.001 | 15.71 | 14.72 – 16.70 | <.001 | 17.69 | 16.83 – 18.55 | <.001 |
| Observations | 2759 | 2759 | 2759 | 2759 | ||||||||
| R2 / R2 adjusted | .329 / .329 | .397 / .397 | .262 / .261 | .371 / .371 | ||||||||
| Political Orientation | Social Political Orientation | Economic Political Orientation | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predictors | Estimates | CI | p | Estimates | CI | p | Estimates | CI | p |
| (Intercept) | -21.07 | -26.20 – -15.94 | <.001 | -27.68 | -33.03 – -22.34 | <.001 | -19.96 | -25.52 – -14.41 | <.001 |
| RWA | 11.71 | 11.12 – 12.29 | <.001 | 13.26 | 12.65 – 13.88 | <.001 | 10.80 | 10.16 – 11.43 | <.001 |
| Age | -0.06 | -0.61 – 0.49 | .824 | 0.14 | -0.43 – 0.71 | .629 | 0.13 | -0.46 – 0.73 | .663 |
| Income | 1.37 | 0.94 – 1.80 | <.001 | 0.91 | 0.46 – 1.36 | <.001 | 1.77 | 1.30 – 2.23 | <.001 |
| Education | 0.76 | -0.22 – 1.73 | .128 | 0.04 | -0.98 – 1.06 | .937 | 1.43 | 0.38 – 2.49 | .008 |
| Gender (Male) | 3.38 | 1.63 – 5.14 | <.001 | 3.23 | 1.40 – 5.05 | .001 | 4.40 | 2.50 – 6.29 | <.001 |
| Observations | 2759 | 2759 | 2759 | ||||||
| R2 / R2 adjusted | .384 / .383 | .425 / .424 | .320 / .319 | ||||||
4.2 Partisanship
| Party Identity | N | Mean | SD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat | 1100 | 4.84 | 1.64 |
| Republican | 819 | 6.56 | 1.48 |
| Don't Know/Other | 104 | 5.04 | 1.56 |
| Independent/Moderate | 736 | 5.33 | 1.66 |
| Party Identity | N | Mean | SD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat | 1100 | 4.03 | 1.62 |
| Republican | 819 | 5.42 | 1.29 |
| Don't Know/Other | 104 | 4.66 | 1.59 |
| Independent/Moderate | 736 | 4.36 | 1.56 |
| Party Identity | N | Mean | SD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat | 1100 | 4.38 | 1.88 |
| Republican | 819 | 6.35 | 1.67 |
| Don't Know/Other | 104 | 4.78 | 2.00 |
| Independent/Moderate | 736 | 4.92 | 1.88 |
| Right-Wing Authoritarianism | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Predictors | Estimates | CI | p |
| (Intercept) | 3.57 | 3.44 – 3.70 | <.001 |
| Party Identity (7-point) | 0.42 | 0.39 – 0.45 | <.001 |
| Observations | 1919 | ||
| R2 / R2 adjusted | .273 / .273 | ||
| Aggression | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Predictors | Estimates | CI | p |
| (Intercept) | 3.98 | 3.83 – 4.13 | <.001 |
| Party Identity (7-point) | 0.43 | 0.39 – 0.47 | <.001 |
| Observations | 1919 | ||
| R2 / R2 adjusted | .227 / .226 | ||
| Submission | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Predictors | Estimates | CI | p |
| (Intercept) | 3.34 | 3.20 – 3.48 | <.001 |
| Party Identity (7-point) | 0.35 | 0.31 – 0.38 | <.001 |
| Observations | 1919 | ||
| R2 / R2 adjusted | .176 / .175 | ||
| Conventionalism | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Predictors | Estimates | CI | p |
| (Intercept) | 3.39 | 3.22 – 3.56 | <.001 |
| Party Identity (7-point) | 0.49 | 0.45 – 0.53 | <.001 |
| Observations | 1919 | ||
| R2 / R2 adjusted | .229 / .229 | ||
| Right-Wing Authoritarianism | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Predictors | Estimates | CI | p |
| (Intercept) | 4.30 | 4.00 – 4.59 | <.001 |
| Party Identity (7-point) | 0.41 | 0.38 – 0.45 | <.001 |
| Age | 0.17 | 0.13 – 0.20 | <.001 |
| Income | -0.05 | -0.08 – -0.02 | <.001 |
| Education | -0.31 | -0.37 – -0.25 | <.001 |
| Gender (Male) | -0.13 | -0.25 – -0.01 | .032 |
| Observations | 1919 | ||
| R2 / R2 adjusted | .345 / .343 | ||
| Aggression | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Predictors | Estimates | CI | p |
| (Intercept) | 5.02 | 4.67 – 5.36 | <.001 |
| Party Identity (7-point) | 0.42 | 0.39 – 0.46 | <.001 |
| Age | 0.14 | 0.10 – 0.18 | <.001 |
| Income | -0.03 | -0.06 – 0.01 | .150 |
| Education | -0.35 | -0.42 – -0.27 | <.001 |
| Gender (Male) | -0.30 | -0.44 – -0.16 | <.001 |
| Observations | 1919 | ||
| R2 / R2 adjusted | .283 / .281 | ||
| Submission | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Predictors | Estimates | CI | p |
| (Intercept) | 4.05 | 3.73 – 4.38 | <.001 |
| Party Identity (7-point) | 0.34 | 0.31 – 0.37 | <.001 |
| Age | 0.13 | 0.09 – 0.16 | <.001 |
| Income | -0.06 | -0.09 – -0.03 | <.001 |
| Education | -0.32 | -0.39 – -0.25 | <.001 |
| Gender (Male) | 0.01 | -0.12 – 0.14 | .860 |
| Observations | 1919 | ||
| R2 / R2 adjusted | .238 / .236 | ||
| Conventionalism | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Predictors | Estimates | CI | p |
| (Intercept) | 3.83 | 3.43 – 4.22 | <.001 |
| Party Identity (7-point) | 0.48 | 0.44 – 0.52 | <.001 |
| Age | 0.23 | 0.18 – 0.28 | <.001 |
| Income | -0.08 | -0.12 – -0.04 | <.001 |
| Education | -0.27 | -0.35 – -0.18 | <.001 |
| Gender (Male) | -0.10 | -0.25 – 0.06 | .216 |
| Observations | 1919 | ||
| R2 / R2 adjusted | .287 / .286 | ||
4.3 Religiosity
Note. The y-axis shows residuals after regressing the outcome on demographics (Age, Income, Education, Gender). This illustrates how much the focal construct explains beyond demographic factors.
4.4 Candidate Preferences
| Candidate Preference | N | Mean | SD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | 770 | 0.68 | 0.82 |
| Hillary Clinton | 714 | -0.31 | 0.89 |
| Bernie Sanders | 592 | -0.57 | 0.95 |
| Ted Cruz | 83 | 0.46 | 0.78 |
| Jeb Bush | 44 | 0.10 | 0.99 |
| Gary Johnson | 43 | -0.30 | 0.96 |
| Rand Paul | 30 | 0.13 | 0.71 |
| John Kasich | 88 | -0.25 | 0.88 |
| Jill Stein | 32 | -0.54 | 0.99 |
| Ben Carson | 82 | 0.59 | 0.81 |
| Marco Rubio | 38 | 0.42 | 0.87 |
| None | 243 | -0.08 | 0.73 |
| Candidate Preference | N | Mean | SD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | 770 | 0.58 | 0.76 |
| Hillary Clinton | 714 | -0.19 | 0.95 |
| Bernie Sanders | 592 | -0.63 | 0.99 |
| Ted Cruz | 83 | 0.47 | 0.90 |
| Jeb Bush | 44 | 0.13 | 0.82 |
| Gary Johnson | 43 | -0.35 | 0.86 |
| Rand Paul | 30 | -0.01 | 0.78 |
| John Kasich | 88 | -0.02 | 0.94 |
| Jill Stein | 32 | -0.48 | 0.96 |
| Ben Carson | 82 | 0.39 | 0.85 |
| Marco Rubio | 38 | 0.58 | 0.83 |
| None | 243 | -0.03 | 0.85 |
| Candidate Preference | N | Mean | SD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | 770 | 0.63 | 0.83 |
| Hillary Clinton | 714 | -0.25 | 0.89 |
| Bernie Sanders | 592 | -0.69 | 0.87 |
| Ted Cruz | 83 | 0.74 | 0.82 |
| Jeb Bush | 44 | 0.07 | 0.79 |
| Gary Johnson | 43 | -0.35 | 0.90 |
| Rand Paul | 30 | 0.08 | 0.82 |
| John Kasich | 88 | -0.05 | 0.92 |
| Jill Stein | 32 | -0.53 | 0.99 |
| Ben Carson | 82 | 0.66 | 0.78 |
| Marco Rubio | 38 | 0.66 | 0.83 |
| None | 243 | -0.03 | 0.82 |
| Candidate Preference | N | Mean | SD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | 770 | 6.67 | 1.44 |
| Hillary Clinton | 714 | 4.95 | 1.56 |
| Bernie Sanders | 592 | 4.48 | 1.66 |
| Ted Cruz | 83 | 6.30 | 1.37 |
| Jeb Bush | 44 | 5.66 | 1.74 |
| Gary Johnson | 43 | 4.97 | 1.68 |
| Rand Paul | 30 | 5.72 | 1.25 |
| John Kasich | 88 | 5.05 | 1.53 |
| Jill Stein | 32 | 4.55 | 1.73 |
| Ben Carson | 82 | 6.52 | 1.43 |
| Marco Rubio | 38 | 6.22 | 1.52 |
| None | 243 | 5.34 | 1.28 |
| Candidate Preference | N | Mean | SD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | 770 | 5.50 | 1.23 |
| Hillary Clinton | 714 | 4.25 | 1.54 |
| Bernie Sanders | 592 | 3.53 | 1.61 |
| Ted Cruz | 83 | 5.31 | 1.46 |
| Jeb Bush | 44 | 4.76 | 1.32 |
| Gary Johnson | 43 | 3.99 | 1.39 |
| Rand Paul | 30 | 4.54 | 1.27 |
| John Kasich | 88 | 4.53 | 1.51 |
| Jill Stein | 32 | 3.77 | 1.55 |
| Ben Carson | 82 | 5.19 | 1.38 |
| Marco Rubio | 38 | 5.49 | 1.34 |
| None | 243 | 4.50 | 1.37 |
| Candidate Preference | N | Mean | SD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | 770 | 6.38 | 1.65 |
| Hillary Clinton | 714 | 4.62 | 1.78 |
| Bernie Sanders | 592 | 3.75 | 1.75 |
| Ted Cruz | 83 | 6.60 | 1.63 |
| Jeb Bush | 44 | 5.27 | 1.58 |
| Gary Johnson | 43 | 4.42 | 1.81 |
| Rand Paul | 30 | 5.29 | 1.64 |
| John Kasich | 88 | 5.03 | 1.84 |
| Jill Stein | 32 | 4.07 | 1.98 |
| Ben Carson | 82 | 6.44 | 1.57 |
| Marco Rubio | 38 | 6.43 | 1.66 |
| None | 243 | 5.06 | 1.65 |
4.5 Party Preferences
| Party Preference | N | Mean | SD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat Party | 1251 | -0.37 | 0.93 |
| Republican Party | 898 | 0.60 | 0.82 |
| Libertarian Party | 150 | -0.12 | 0.94 |
| Green Party | 68 | -1.05 | 0.92 |
| Tea Party | 71 | 0.76 | 0.87 |
| None | 321 | -0.15 | 0.84 |
| Party Preference | N | Mean | SD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat Party | 1251 | -0.32 | 0.99 |
| Republican Party | 898 | 0.54 | 0.79 |
| Libertarian Party | 150 | -0.16 | 0.89 |
| Green Party | 68 | -1.06 | 0.92 |
| Tea Party | 71 | 0.59 | 0.80 |
| None | 321 | -0.12 | 0.89 |
| Party Preference | N | Mean | SD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat Party | 1251 | -0.38 | 0.92 |
| Republican Party | 898 | 0.59 | 0.83 |
| Libertarian Party | 150 | -0.15 | 0.84 |
| Green Party | 68 | -1.11 | 0.89 |
| Tea Party | 71 | 0.98 | 0.72 |
| None | 321 | -0.10 | 0.84 |
| Party Preference | N | Mean | SD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat Party | 1251 | 4.85 | 1.63 |
| Republican Party | 898 | 6.54 | 1.43 |
| Libertarian Party | 150 | 5.28 | 1.64 |
| Green Party | 68 | 3.65 | 1.61 |
| Tea Party | 71 | 6.82 | 1.52 |
| None | 321 | 5.22 | 1.47 |
| Party Preference | N | Mean | SD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat Party | 1251 | 4.04 | 1.60 |
| Republican Party | 898 | 5.43 | 1.28 |
| Libertarian Party | 150 | 4.30 | 1.43 |
| Green Party | 68 | 2.84 | 1.48 |
| Tea Party | 71 | 5.51 | 1.29 |
| None | 321 | 4.36 | 1.44 |
| Party Preference | N | Mean | SD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat Party | 1251 | 4.37 | 1.85 |
| Republican Party | 898 | 6.30 | 1.67 |
| Libertarian Party | 150 | 4.82 | 1.68 |
| Green Party | 68 | 2.90 | 1.78 |
| Tea Party | 71 | 7.09 | 1.45 |
| None | 321 | 4.92 | 1.69 |
4.6 Voting
| 2016 [Trump vs. Clinton] | 2012 [Romney vs. Obama] | 2008 [McCain vs. Obama] | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predictors | Log-Odds | CI | p | Log-Odds | CI | p | Log-Odds | CI | p |
| (Intercept) | .823 | -Inf – Inf | <.001 | 1.210 | -Inf – Inf | <.001 | 1.155 | -Inf – Inf | <.001 |
| Right-Wing Authoritarianism | -1.480 | -Inf – Inf | <.001 | -1.195 | -Inf – Inf | <.001 | -1.098 | -Inf – Inf | <.001 |
| Observations | 2759 | 2759 | 2759 | ||||||
| R2 Tjur | .218 | .050 | .140 | ||||||
4.7 Voting & Party Identity
4.8 Likeability
6 Elastic Net Analysis
| Variable Group | # Predictors | R² |
|---|---|---|
| Political Psychology | 4 | .413 |
| Ideology & Partisanship | 5 | .487 |
| Demographics | 5 | .108 |
| Attitudes | 4 | .479 |
| Everything | 18 | .679 |







































































































































































3.1 Social Class
Note on the Raincloud Plots