PPBS

Black Lives Matter [2020]

A Politico-Psychological Analysis

Author

The Psychology of Political Behavior Studies (PPBS)

Report generated

March 23, 2026

1 Study Characteristics

1.1 Items: Black Lives Matter

1.2 Sample

N=TBD

Sample description for the 2020 PPBS CINT study to be added.

2 Descriptives

2.1 Means, SD, Range, & SE

Table 1: Descriptives
Descriptives for Black Lives Matter
n mean sd median min max range se
SM_BLM 2000 55.36 37.66 59 0 100 100 0.84

2.2 Response Distribution

Figure 1: Proportion of each response categories for Black Lives Matter Items
Figure 2: Distribution of reponses for Black Lives Matter Items

3 Demographics

3.1 Social Class

Figure 3: Black Lives Matter as grouped by SES
Figure 4: Raincloud Plots showing Black Lives Matter grouped by Social Class

Note on the Raincloud Plots

  • Statistical summary (top): Welch’s t-test (or ANOVA) results, effect size, confidence intervals, p-values, and sample sizes are shown above each plot.
  • Bayesian analysis (bottom): Log Bayes factor and credible intervals are reported below each plot.
Table 2: Black Lives Matter as grouped by SES
SES N Mean SD
Poor 154 0.10 0.98
Lower Middle Class 405 0.09 0.99
Middle Middle Class 786 -0.05 1.01
Upper Middle Class 655 -0.02 1.00

3.2 Gender

Figure 5: Black Lives Matter as grouped by Gender
Figure 6: Raincloud Plots showing Black Lives Matter grouped by Gender
Table 3: Black Lives Matter as grouped by Gender
Black Lives Matter as grouped by Gender
Gender N Mean SD
Male 970 -0.03 1
Female 1030 0.02 1

3.3 Age

Figure 7: Black Lives Matter as grouped by Age
Figure 8: Raincloud Plots showing Black Lives Matter grouped by Age
Table 4: Black Lives Matter as grouped by Age
Black Lives Matter as grouped by Age
Age N Mean SD
18-24 years 233 0.50 0.88
25-34 years 356 0.20 0.96
35-44 years 335 0.07 1.00
45-54 years 331 -0.13 1.02
55-64 years 332 -0.29 0.96
NA 413 -0.18 0.97

3.4 Education

Figure 9: Black Lives Matter as grouped by Education
Figure 10: Raincloud Plots showing Black Lives Matter grouped by Education
Table 5: Black Lives Matter as grouped by Education
Education N Mean SD
High School or less 761 0.03 0.99
Some College 565 -0.02 1.03
Bachelor or higher 674 -0.01 0.99

3.5 Income Levels

Figure 11: Black Lives Matter as grouped by Income Levels
Figure 12: Raincloud Plots showing Black Lives Matter grouped by Income Levels
Table 6: Black Lives Matter as grouped by Income Levels
Black Lives Matter as grouped by Income Levels
Income Levels N Mean SD
$50,000-$74,999 357 -0.05 1.04
$75,000-$99,999 243 -0.02 0.97
$35,000-$49,999 255 -0.02 1.00
$150,000 + 251 -0.01 0.99
$100,000-$149,999 290 0.00 1.01
$15,000-$24,999 188 0.02 0.98
$25,000-$34,999 187 0.05 1.02
Less than $15,000 229 0.09 0.98

3.6 Ethnicity

Figure 13: Black Lives Matter as grouped by Ethnicity

Note on the Okabe-Ito color palette. The Okabe-Ito color palette (seen above) is a set of colorblind-friendly categorical colors available in R. We are using this palette for graphs with non-ordered variables (e.g., groups, categories) for accessibility.

Figure 14: Raincloud Plots showing Black Lives Matter grouped by Ethnicity
Table 7: Black Lives Matter as grouped by Ethnicity
Black Lives Matter as grouped by Ethnicity
Ethnicity N Mean SD
Black/African American 255 0.64 0.77
Asian/Pacific Islander 99 0.29 0.88
Native American 13 -0.01 1.10
Other 27 -0.40 0.99
NA 1516 -0.14 0.99
NA 88 0.38 0.93
NA 2 0.30 0.54

3.7 Occupation

Figure 15: Black Lives Matter as grouped by Occupation
Figure 16: Raincloud Plots showing Black Lives Matter grouped by Occupation
Table 8: Black Lives Matter as grouped by Occupation
Black Lives Matter as grouped by Occupation
Occupation N Mean SD
Employed 994 0.02 1.00
Retired 420 -0.23 0.97
Unemployed 241 0.08 1.01
Parent 71 -0.19 1.03
Disabled 114 -0.03 1.00
Student 123 0.53 0.85
Full-time caregiver 37 0.19 1.01

3.8 Area

Figure 17: Black Lives Matter as grouped by Area
Figure 18: Raincloud Plots showing Black Lives Matter grouped by Area
Table 9: Black Lives Matter as grouped by Area
Black Lives Matter as grouped by Area
Area N Mean SD
Urban 568 0.25 0.96
Rural 424 -0.29 0.98
NA 1008 -0.02 0.99

3.9 Religious Affiliation

Figure 19: Black Lives Matter as grouped by Religious Affiliation
Figure 20: Raincloud Plots showing Black Lives Matter grouped by Religious Affiliation
Table 10: Black Lives Matter as grouped by Religion
Black Lives Matter as grouped by Religious Affiliation
Religious Affiliation N Mean SD
Catholic 468 -0.02 0.98
Protestant 784 -0.20 1.00
Jewish 72 0.19 0.98
Muslim 11 0.52 0.85
Atheist/Agnostic 328 0.34 0.92
Don't know / refused 337 0.10 1.00

3.10 Section Summary

  Black Lives Matter
Predictors Estimates CI p
(Intercept) 75.06 68.28 – 81.85 <.001
Age -5.10 -6.07 – -4.13 <.001
Income -0.10 -0.91 – 0.72 .818
Education 1.24 -0.95 – 3.42 .268
Gender (Male) -1.86 -5.15 – 1.42 .267
Observations 2000
R2 / R2 adjusted .052 / .050

4 Political Behavior

4.1 Political Orientation

Figure 21: Political Orientation
Figure 22: Political Orientation (Controlled for Demographics)

Note. The y-axis shows residuals after regressing the outcome on demographics (Age, Income, Education, Gender). This illustrates how much the focal construct explains beyond demographic factors.

Figure 23: Correlation Matrix - Political Orientation
Table 11: Models of Political Orientation (SPRI) & Black Lives Matter
  Political Orientation Social Political Orientation Economic Political Orientation
Predictors Estimates CI p Estimates CI p Estimates CI p
(Intercept) 51.70 50.60 – 52.81 <.001 50.03 48.86 – 51.21 <.001 54.38 53.23 – 55.54 <.001
Black Lives Matter -16.96 -18.07 – -15.85 <.001 -17.79 -18.96 – -16.62 <.001 -17.16 -18.31 – -16.00 <.001
Observations 2000 2000 2000
R2 / R2 adjusted .311 / .311 .307 / .307 .297 / .296
Table 12: Models of Ideology and Black Lives Matter with Controls
  Political Orientation Social Political Orientation Economic Political Orientation
Predictors Estimates CI p Estimates CI p Estimates CI p
(Intercept) 75.93 70.75 – 81.11 <.001 77.95 72.48 – 83.42 <.001 72.43 67.01 – 77.85 <.001
Black Lives Matter -0.45 -0.48 – -0.42 <.001 -0.47 -0.50 – -0.44 <.001 -0.45 -0.48 – -0.42 <.001
Age 0.47 -0.22 – 1.15 .181 0.46 -0.27 – 1.18 .215 0.43 -0.28 – 1.15 .237
Income -0.49 -1.05 – 0.07 .085 -0.63 -1.22 – -0.04 .037 0.16 -0.42 – 0.75 .588
Education -0.27 -1.78 – 1.23 .724 -1.77 -3.36 – -0.18 .029 0.65 -0.92 – 2.22 .417
Gender (Male) 1.08 -1.18 – 3.34 .347 1.88 -0.50 – 4.27 .122 2.17 -0.19 – 4.54 .071
Observations 2000 2000 2000
R2 / R2 adjusted .313 / .312 .313 / .311 .300 / .298

4.2 Partisanship

Figure 24: Party Identity
Table 13: Mean Black Lives Matter by Party Identity
Mean Black Lives Matter by Party Identity (raw means)
Party Identity N Mean SD
Democrat 772 78.24 27.72
Republican 657 30.13 31.97
Don't Know/Other 72 53.93 37.52
Independent/Moderate 499 53.40 36.07
Table 14: Model of Black Lives Matter & Party Identity (7-point)
  Black Lives Matter
Predictors Estimates CI p
(Intercept) 102.30 98.95 – 105.65 <.001
Party Identity (7-point) -12.03 -12.80 – -11.25 <.001
Observations 1429
R2 / R2 adjusted .394 / .394
Table 15: Model of Black Lives Matter & Party Identity with Controls
  Black Lives Matter
Predictors Estimates CI p
(Intercept) 112.06 105.07 – 119.06 <.001
Party Identity (7-point) -11.72 -12.48 – -10.95 <.001
Age -3.54 -4.46 – -2.63 <.001
Income 0.52 -0.27 – 1.30 .199
Education 1.20 -0.84 – 3.24 .249
Gender (Male) -1.72 -4.81 – 1.37 .276
Observations 1429
R2 / R2 adjusted .419 / .417

4.3 Religiosity

Figure 25: Religiosity
Figure 26: Religiosity (Controlled for Demographics)

Note. The y-axis shows residuals after regressing the outcome on demographics (Age, Income, Education, Gender). This illustrates how much the focal construct explains beyond demographic factors.

Figure 27: Religiosity - Correlation Matrix

4.4 Candidate Preferences

Figure 28: Candidate Preferences
Table 16: Candidate Preferences (centered)
Candidate Preferences and Black Lives Matter [centered]
Candidate Preference N Mean SD
Donald Trump 614 -0.78 0.81
Bernie Sanders 326 0.66 0.73
Joe Biden 326 0.54 0.70
None/Not listed 217 -0.12 0.93
Elizabeth Warren 86 0.83 0.52
Hillary Clinton 78 0.68 0.71
Pete Buttigieg 75 0.32 0.76
Ted Cruz 46 -0.69 0.80
Michael Bloomberg 43 0.11 0.99
Kamala Harris 30 0.50 0.73
Jeb Bush 29 -0.20 0.93
Mitt Romney 28 -0.12 0.83
Marco Rubio 26 -0.68 0.71
Rand Paul 24 -0.77 0.86
Amy Klobuchar 23 0.30 0.70
Beto O'Rourke 13 0.57 0.75
Gary Johnson 10 -0.05 1.05
Jill Stein 6 0.60 0.91
Table 17: Candidate Preferences (raw means)
Candidate Preferences and Black Lives Matter [raw means]
Candidate Preferences N Mean SD Range
Donald Trump 614 26.17 30.50 1-11
Bernie Sanders 326 80.36 27.58 1-11
Joe Biden 326 75.86 26.50 1-11
None/Not listed 217 50.95 35.07 1-11
Elizabeth Warren 86 86.45 19.46 1-11
Hillary Clinton 78 80.79 26.92 1-11
Pete Buttigieg 75 67.39 28.58 1-11
Ted Cruz 46 29.46 30.25 1-11
Michael Bloomberg 43 59.53 37.11 1-11
Kamala Harris 30 74.23 27.60 1-11
Jeb Bush 29 47.90 35.14 1-11
Mitt Romney 28 50.79 31.07 1-11
Marco Rubio 26 29.62 26.66 1-11
Rand Paul 24 26.29 32.39 1-11
Amy Klobuchar 23 66.70 26.35 1-11
Beto O'Rourke 13 76.69 28.16 1-11
Gary Johnson 10 53.60 39.67 1-11
Jill Stein 6 77.83 34.34 1-11

4.5 Party Preferences

Figure 29: Party Preferences
Table 18: Party Preferences (centered)
Party Preferences and Black Lives Matter [centered]
Party Preference N Mean SD
Tea Party 38 -0.94 0.85
Republican Party 736 -0.64 0.86
Libertarian Party 97 -0.12 0.96
None 266 -0.08 0.96
Green Party 22 0.36 0.78
Democrat Party 841 0.64 0.70
Table 19: Party Preferences (raw means)
Party Preferences and Black Lives Matter [raw means]
Party Preferences N Mean SD Range
Tea Party 38 19.82 32.06 1-11
Republican Party 736 31.20 32.21 1-11
Libertarian Party 97 50.74 36.24 1-11
None 266 52.20 36.12 1-11
Green Party 22 68.82 29.32 1-11
Democrat Party 841 79.30 26.20 1-11

4.6 Voting Preferences

Table 20: Voting Preferences
  2020 [Trump vs. Biden]
Predictors Odds Ratios CI p
(Intercept) 9.20 7.14 – 12.04 <.001
Black Lives Matter 1.00 1.00 – 1.00 .723
Observations 2000
R2 Tjur .000
Figure 30: Logistic Regression, Black Lives Matter & Voting Preferences

4.7 Voting & Party Identity

Figure 31: Party Identity and Voting
Table 21: Party Identity & Voting
0 1
Don't Know/Other 47 25
Republican 36 621
Independent/Moderate 79 420
Democrat 41 731
Figure 32: Predicted, Voting & Party Identity
Table 22: Supporters
  2020 [Biden vs. Trump]
Predictors Odds Ratios CI p
(Intercept) 10.64 7.04 – 16.30 <.001
Party Identity (dichotomous) 0.85 0.60 – 1.22 .383
Black Lives Matter 1.00 0.99 – 1.00 .426
Observations 2000
R2 Tjur .000

4.8 Likeability

5 Politico-Psychological correlates of Black Lives Matter


5.1 Ideologies and Partisanship

Figure 33: Correlates - Ideologies and Partisanship (by magnitude)
Figure 34: Correlates - Ideologies and Partisanship (alphabetic)

5.2 Populism, Nationalism, Nativism, and Patriotism

Figure 35: Correlates - Populism, Nationalism, Nativism, and Patriotism (by magnitude)
Figure 36: Correlates - Populism, Nationalism, Nativism, and Patriotism (alphabetic)

5.3 Political Psychology

Figure 37: Correlates - Political Psychology (by magnitude)
Figure 38: Correlates - Political Psychology (alphabetic)



5.4 Positive and Negative correlates of Black Lives Matter

Figure 39: Correlates - Positive associations
Figure 40: Correlates - Positive associations (alphabetic)
Figure 41: Correlates - Negative associations
Figure 42: Correlates - Negative associations (alphabetic)

6 Elastic Net Analysis

Figure 43: Elastic net predicting Black Lives Matter: Political Psychology
Figure 44: Elastic net predicting Black Lives Matter: Ideology & Partisanship
Figure 45: Elastic net predicting Black Lives Matter: Demographics
Figure 46: Elastic net predicting Black Lives Matter: Attitudes
Figure 47: Elastic net predicting Black Lives Matter: Everything
Table 23: Elastic Net Summary
Elastic Net R² for predicting Black Lives Matter
Variable Group # Predictors R²
Political Psychology 4 .420
Ideology & Partisanship 5 .409
Demographics 5 .078
Attitudes 3 .359
Everything 17 .548
PPBS
Psychology of Political Behavior Studies PI: Flavio Azevedo